More on Favorites
 

There was a system floating around that played ML favorites that were 2-1 or less and went to post as the favorite with final odds of less than 2-1. They supposedly won at approx 50%. I never used it so Im not sure a profit could be made long term.

Just out of curiosity I checked it at Belmont and Delaware for 9/11. There were 3 plays at Belmont and 4 plays at Delaware. They all won.

Belmont:
R2 #7 Zip Daddy 4.30
R5 #5 Moyne Spun 3.60
R6 #5 Ratajkowski 4.30

Delaware:
R2 #2 Early Retirement 2.80
R3 #3 Inchesky 5.00
R4 #6 Band on Tour 2.40
R8 #2 Gibby 4.60

If 2 horses are under 2-1 morning line pass the race. If there is a ML favorite under 2-1 and a horse 2-1, the under 2-1 horse becomes the prospective play.

Delaware:

R1 #1 Enough is Enough ML 3/2 #6 Rock Solid Golfer ML 9/5
Pass Race

R8 #1 Zira ML 2-1 #2 Gibby ML 8/5
Gibby is prospective play

Previous studies prove that the lower the odds on the favorite the more likely it'll win.Or in other words a favorite that will pay $3.20 to win its percentage is greater than a horse that will only pay $ 3.60. 3- 5 verses 4-5. In this case for a percentage of 62.5 % verses 55.6%. The percentages are greater depending on the odds such as 3-5 verses 9-5 $5.60 or 35.7 % or 2-1 favorite $6.00 for 33.3%.


The example above(3-5 & 4-5) puts you at a break even proposition at best for a perfect series or run. I myself would rather risk the same amount of money on a DD or Ex . combo using that low odds horse as a key. The potential for gain is much greater for the same risk. People are much better picking winners than picking place horses, and its not unusual to get a very good overlay on this bet or the DD. Key here also meaning that I believe it to be a legitimate favorite and it is placed at its correct distance and surface, as like anything else not all favorites are created equal.


Mitch44

Update on above favorites system:

I had no intention of investing on horses today and didn't even have a racing form but I decided to do some experimenting with the above favorite system at Monmouth Park.

There were 7 qualified bets with 5 winners. I ran a progressive betting scheme.

Bet Return Profit

R2 #3 5.20 $20 $52 $32
R3 #5 5.60 $20 $56 $68
R4 #6 3rd $20 ---- $48
R5 #3 4.20 $40 $84 $92
R6 #2 Out $20 ---- $72
R7 #7 3.00 $40 $60 $92
R9 #6 3.00 $20 $30 $102

5/7= 71% win Bet $180 Ret $282 Profit $102 56% ROI

Congrats for a nice profit ScottB.


Mitch44

Scott nice job!
Interesting concept!!

Regards, Mike

Don’t know how it would pan out in the
long haul. More research would have to be done.

Might be good idea to keep track of those type of favorites in your betting
to see if you are getting beat by those type of favorites.