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-   -   Beware the LATE line (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5936)

Tim Y 07-23-2009 06:02 PM

Beware the LATE line
 
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One of the FEW things discussed at Paceadvantage that has taught me anything is to beware any line one uses where the 2nd call was waddling time.

It often takes the form of seeing the BEST speed rating in the last several, and the ESP comes up late. If this horse does NOT REGULARLY RUN LATE ON DIRT go back and check the Pace of Race in that line. I will wager that 24 times out of 25 it was so slow relative to the other lines, that that race was a "gift" to this horse: so slow that it had tons left late to make a strong second move from the second call to the wire.

If today's pace projection does not show that the SAME 2nd call will it be the same "gift" today? DON'T use that line as it will project a LATE move from FAR back of the 2nd call and give you are erroneous result.

Here is a classic example that happened today. MANY would see this horse's 2nd and third lines as being equal with the same speed rating, but look at the energy distribution and the 2nd call of the pace of the race 2nd back: IT WAS CRAWLING and this horse has NO OTHER LATE LINES on dirt in the past 10. Don't use it

Tim Y 07-23-2009 06:11 PM

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In that same race there was another thing to watch GOING OFF FORM as the 7's last three races screamed that that one needed a rest. SLOWER 2nd call pace of race and this one is having a harder time catching up to progressively slower 2nd call and reflecting it by having the % median climb while total energy goes down.

The last SLOW SLOW pace and this one's not being around at the end of it should seal the deal that this one is getting ragged. Finished OFF the board.

mikesal57 07-24-2009 07:53 AM

Hi Tim..

First of all , do we know that idiot that picked the #6 horse to try to win the daily double yesterday :rolleyes:

yes it was me...I'm glad you brought this up..I was going to read my books Figure Handicapping and Thoroughbred Cycles and try to help me in seeing a declining horse...

With the screens u put up , I see a downward patten in TPR and FX with the last 3 races...can this be the clue?

Plus I like to do the match-up with no software ....is there an easy way to see this also just by eyeballing it?

thxs

mike

Tim Y 07-24-2009 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikesal57 (Post 57615)
Plus I like to do the match-up with no software ....is there an easy way to see this also just by eyeballing it?


I never could until the software worked up ALL the lines so the ratings were showing on each one so that it stood out.

because of the extremes of variation race to race, day to day, RAW times are FRAUGHT with errors so good luck with that approach.

Tim Y 07-24-2009 11:48 AM

Remember Huey Mahl: It takes TWO units of energy LATE to make up for ONE lost early.

If the pace is EASY early, there is much more left in the tank so the energy distribution becomes ABNORMALLY LATER than usual without a first and 2nd call challenge.

Remember the old challenge. Run around your block and have someone time the last 200 yards only. Run the first time at your own pace and the 2nd time (after a rest) have a FIT 16 year old push you hard early.

Which of the two timings will be faster? the FORMER of course. Just like a slow pace early skews normality.

Tim Y 07-24-2009 12:25 PM

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Another example at Woodbine today LOOK at that HORRIBLY slow pace, 51 to the half here WOOF yet the Speed rating ranks it the best HORRIBLE as reaction to a 51 half means LITTLE to nothing.

tom 07-24-2009 03:12 PM

This brings up a question....is anyone doing the Match Up using the normalized and equalized lines of the advanced programs?


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