Pace line question
 

Here is my answer to pace line question

This might not be the best choice for everybody but its how I would
look at it.

The issue is which line would I use line 1 or line 3 ?

I would use line 3. Line 1 is a plus race, so is line 3
Line 1 has a speed rating of 80, Line 3 has a speed rating of 85
The 85 is not out of the norm for this horse I see it has run 86 speed ratings
in line 9 and line 6

The person who asked this question does not use RDSS but my decision is supported by the early late graph,
In line 3 the horse ran its normal energy pattern of about + 9 or 10
(his EP was 9 points higher than it LP )
In the last line the horse ran with more energy late than early
so it shows a -.5
It looks to me like this was a tired horse. The trainer gave it a 4 week freshening. after a plus race. I look at this as a positive form factor.
without that freshening break I would use line 1. But with that break,
I would use line 3

I would use line 3 over line 1

Attachment 34874

Interesting
 

Hey Bill,
In the spirit of learning...:)

I included the Segments screens for both line 3 and then line 1. Also, is the results chart.

I handicapped this race and passed.

I can see your point with everything you said.

However, I used the first line.

When looking at the segments screens, and thinking about the running of the race, it did not matter which line you used.

If you used line 1, the Computed Beaten Lengths (CBL) shows it would have been off the pace and closed strong in the final fraction.

If you used the 3rd line back, the it shows the horse would have been first at the 2C and still had that final fraction to make it a wager.

If you look at the 26 Oct race, it also ran a late% and almost took the money from off the pace.

What I think is interesting is that the horse went off at 0.7-1. That is no doubt due to the 3rd and 4th line positional calls and the 45 and change 2c PORs it was facing instead of being off the pace in its last two races.

However, when you look at the result chart, it was a length off of the pace against a 46 and 3 at the 2C. Visually looking at his 3rd and 9th lines, he fades down the stretch against faster paces. Yet it is the lack of Early Speed, needing a slower pace regardless of whether it is setting the pace or not and a third fraction that predicts it will win the money.

Jim

Here’s my post mortem.

LINE 1 is a “+” line, therefore that is my line. This is the way I do it in every single race. The key word here is “CONSISTENCY”.

For those who want to go shopping for a line after the fact, line 9 is your line . WHY?

Let’s look at the horse. You can see it in a post above.
It has 16 lifetime races.
In the 10 races we can see in the PP’s, it does NOT have a win.
Therefore, this horse won 3 races from its’ first 6 starts, with 1 second place finish. Not a bad start. But other than that, we have no idea what class level it ran at or anything else about those first six races.
What we do know is, the horse is eligible for a “NW4L” condition. Can we see any previous races at the NW4L condition? YES, lines 4 and 9. In both cases the horse ran early. In both cases the class level was $10,000. There is one other race were the horse ran early, line 3, vs. “OPEN” $10,000 claimers.
Today’s race is a NW4L condition at the $5,000 level. That is a 50% drop in claiming price from its’ other efforts at the NW4L condition.
So let’s look at the three races where the horse ran early.
Line 3 shows a track variant of -10 (fast)
Line 4 shows a track variant of 8(slow)
Line 9 shows a track variant of 1(slow)
Because the track was running fast in line 3, we naturally get faster times for the horse.
Because the track was running slow in line 4, we naturally get slower times doer the horse.
Because the track was running at about “par” in line 9 with only a 1 variant, there is little to no adjustments and the times it ran are the times it ran! Therefore I conclude that line 9 is the best line.

BUT, I have just one question. Is there anyone out there who is going to go to this effort prior to the race in order to come up with a line?

And before you can do any of this, you have to be as certain as you can be that the horse WILL, IN FACT, run early. Can you?
Check the result chart above. Early is how it ran today!

Now some words of wisdom from “DOC”.

Attachment 34919
Attachment 34920
Attachment 34921


And finally......

Attachment 34922
Attachment 34923

Early
 

Hi FTL
as I said just because I would use the 3rd line It probably is not the best line

However as BICJ points out either line 1 or 3 gets this chalk winner

This question came to me in an Email
Because I will make this call every time - Consistency

To me there are 3 issues with line 1

1. layoff Its a short layoff but
In Pace Makes the Race - An introduction to the Sartin Methodology.They define a layoff as no races in 30 days, Tom Brohamer calls these short 4 -5 week breaks freshening, non the less line 1 put the horse in the barn.
2
My excuse for using line 3 is in reference to point # 7 above
line 1 to me was the end of the horse form cycle exhibited by the difference
in energy and speed rating.
3. I did not handicap this race the question was in regards to When do you go
back to the best of the last 3 speed ratings at a comparable distance surface and competition level.
I saw the last line as a open 10,000
to be tougher competition then a non winner of CL 5N 4 life
Today's race is the same CL 5 N4-L
I figured that the horse when in form runs early and about a 85 ASR
Line 1 to me is unrepresentative of the horses ability when in form
#7 ?

Thanks Bill

(+) race Line 1?
 

Hi Bill,
I know you wrote this some time ago, and I've mis-read things before (i.e. Doc writing in one of the follow-ups not to use a race where the house was beaten by more than 7.5 lengths...only to read a post from you explaining he meant that in relation to a certain program).
So having missed that I want to clarify something else I read.

In the Yellow Manual under Form Cycle Detection it says a a + is a race in which the horse won, placed or showed within 2.75 lengths of the winner.

In this post you state that Line 1 is a plus race at Show but 5 lengths back.

Can I assume that the 2.75 length margin is no longer needed for todays programs such as RDSS2?

Thank You,
Bill

The correct line in this scenario is line # 3 and Bill V. nails it. For The Lead your quote from the "Doc" isn't valid because the " Doc" evolved over time and changed his line picking procedure to the best of the last 3 at a similar distance and surface.
RDSS users need to evolve also and get past that original manual. The Follow Ups are available in the library and there the correct answer. Lt1 also posted the correct procedure in the past to this same question with the follow up number.
In this particular example the line may have not made much difference and either one may have gotten the winner but this will cost you many other winners over time which is why the "Doc" evolved.
All my best,
Mitchman



+

In addition to the above in follow up # 81, pg1,(2) I quote; "the last line is less predictive than both the second and third back" which was ascertained through a through study. Bottom line is that rigidly always picking the last line will cost you more winners than losers. The Doc never ever said to always use the last line. NEVER!!!!

Mitchman

Thanks Mitchman, but in that issue isn't doc referring solely to last or best of last 3 specifically regarding DRF+variant and Beyer SR?

Yes wwilens it does refer to the last 3 regarding the SR+ variant however its still reflective of the last race only syndrome. The key is the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface.

FU # 81 I believe was written around the year 2000 but I could be wrong on the year. Since then the methodology has continued to evolve and now we have much better tools such as preceptor which from what I can tell detects hidden moves and the most important factors of pace proven over time, making it superior to the old SR+ variant.
Its rare but just the other day I used a line that wasn't the top preceptor but was the best POR & POH total pace of last 3 at a comparable distance and surface.

Some of the original manual reasons to go back to another line still are valid such as trouble line or off track etc. however "most" of these are reflective in preceptor also however I don't use off track lines at all, not even on off tracks. The word "unless" was huge in not always using the last line in the original teachings.

The advent of computers has really changed things from the early days and its concepts. Preceptor vs.'s SR+variant is but one. Rating all lines in a horses chart is another valuable tool that for me replaces all those plus and minus's or good race bad race etc. Ted has done a hell of a job with today's computer capabilities and the methodology.
Rigidly using stuff from the 80's vs. the present would be like refusing to give up your Model T for a Corvette. Preceptor of the last 3 at a comparable dis. & surface will hands down give you more winners than always using the last line.
Mitch44

Thank You.
As you can tell I am still "wet" and appreciate any and all advice. I know I need to come up with a way to choose my own pacelines but so much has been done it's foolish to re-invent. It's just not always clear, especially for someone very new to the methodology, when things have evolved from what had previously been written or taken as "gold standard".