E/L change by distance
 

The e/l is, to my mind, the MOST POWERFUL thing we have going that NO ONE ELSE HAS. A few years back I posted a long study I did called e/l relativity which showed that for the MOST PART, earlier e/l's that are reasonable often win at mutuels that are worth it over the form the clouds types that catch the field just about he clubhouse turn the second time around the course.

For example, you have THREE horse fairly close. You the review the relative readouts of those and find their e/l's (this is a route at 8.5 furlongs) -1.4, -4.0, and -12.4 respectively. Who has the better shot? In the long run the earlier the horse the better the shot on dirt. If they are maidens, you can extend the range of early by about 25% more positive than those standard e/l standards for winners as they are learning to run and often quit after showing improving early speed.

Once you have your standards ofr each distacne at each course, remember the differences between the e/l's per distance.

From a real race today at Fort Erie (one sprint, one route) I changed the distances, up and down from the two distances listed (6.0 and 8.5 respectively) and here is how the e/l changes with distance change.

According by distance and starting with an e/l of 9.5 at 6.0 furlongs, the number for 6.5 furlongs decreased by two to 7.5, and down two more (5.5) at 7.0 furlongs. Going the other way, the e/l stayed the same at 9.5 for 5.5 furlongs and was positive by ONE at 10.5 at 5.0 furlongs.

For a route, starting at -10.4 for 8.5f, it shifted more negative by 6 points at 9.0 furlongs to -16.4 and another -5 at 9.5 furlongs becoming -21.4. Going the other ways, and this is tricky, that -9.5 became -13.4 at 8.3 but only -9.4 and 8.0. What should be linear has a glitch in the program at the odd distance of 1 mile 70 yards. Did not calculate 1 mile and 40 isnce it is only really found at the Fair Grounds and the odd one at Tampa.

How to use this: really look at e/ls' shat are close to standard for your track and distance and consider those positive ones that are within about 25% above the norm as possibilities. Remember it is their RELATIVITY that is important.

a better way to view the changes

5.0f 10.5
5.5f 9.5
6.0f 9.5
6.5f 7.5
7.0f 5.5

routes
8.0f -9.4
8.3f -13.4
8.5f -10.4
9.0f -16.4
9.5f -21.4

e/l
 

So you are saying to calculate an AVERAGE e/l for each distance at the track you are playing and consider at each distance any horse that is within 25% of the AVERAGE for that distance.

Is that correct?

fairly close

Seems like a "broad" approach considering in this race you are looking at bottom level 3 year old maiden fillies and the next race upper level older male winners. (same dist/surface)

It is all about RELATIVITY within the Field you are evaluationg and maiden races are ALL ABOUT developing speed. Babies RARELY have any stamina to speak of.

Here is a great example of e/l relativity.

7th race - Fort Erie - July 12, 2009

Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
1 T Que Eldridge K. Lindsay 19.60 7.10 5.00
3 Better Than Enough Gerry Olguin 3.00 2.70
6 Service Act Daniel J. David 6.00
Also ran: 4 - Joey D. , 8 - Judith's Aidan , 5 - I Boogie , 7 - One Short
Scratched horses: Rojo Diablo

CHECK out how the RELATIVELY more positive e/l numbers played out in this race

another one for relativity
 

10th race - Fort Erie - July 12, 2009

Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
8 Seafields Rui M. Pimentel 9.50 4.40 3.00
9 Approved by Nick Roderick Dacosta 3.50 2.60
11 Manderlay Steven Ronald Bahen 5.00
Also ran: 1 - Flashy J R , 3 - Pacino , 7 - Patrolster , 6 - Vany's Parlour , 4 - Catsintherain , 5 - Fiscal Range , 2 - Turbo Train
Scratched horses: Deed of Freedom , Joey's Smokin Gun

See where in this maiden race, where you can accept HIGHER e/l's than normal races by up to 25 to 40%, the SAME relativity showed up again.

I think we are getting to the same destination using different avenues. I just prefer to "narrow" the model to reflect more closely the type of race I have in front of me.

Same idea but this works form the early side unilaterally with the RARE exception of the come from behind horse having faced and overcome the same, or faster fractions than the earlier ones, THE ONLY time that the closers take over consistently.