Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   Pennsylvania Derby (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11331)

Bill V. 09-22-2017 07:25 PM

Pennsylvania Derby
 
This one will mean so much to me. I keep getting knocked down
this is true, I have so many beautiful memories I dedicate this one to my very best friend Richie P.
Richie, I used to play this one all the time going back and forth to and from the
Meadowlands

https://youtu.be/ZOWIAXsfZus


Some guys they just give up living, others start dying little by little piece by piece, some guys come home from work and wash up, and go racing in the streets.


Lets blow them right out of their seats


The field .

Bill V. 09-22-2017 07:26 PM

Horses
 
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Bill V. 09-22-2017 07:29 PM

Horses
 
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5 6 7 8

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Bill V. 09-22-2017 07:31 PM

last 2
 
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9 10

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RichieP 09-23-2017 07:32 AM

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Ah yes I remember the days, sitting at the Big M with "Binder" :) watching him work his magic at "Philly"! Parx what the heck is that??

I hope you are feeling better Bill, the docs will take care of what you need to do!

Here is my look, maybe put yours up and we can send it to the "Beard" he will know what to do with the reads!! :D:D:D

Karen is sitting here with me having breakfast and sends her love and hugs your way Bill!

rdiam 09-23-2017 01:25 PM

I'll take a stab, in reverse order:

9 -- Term of Art: Blinkers On, Rising from a G3 Stakes, first race after 70 day layoff, jockey switch, BUT: has not improved as a 3 year old

3 -- Watch Me Whip: Rising from a G3 Stakes, lightly raced and improving, first after 70 day layoff, BUT: figures to regress after last race

10 -- Giussepe the Great: shortens up, jockey switch, BUT: June 10 race seems to have taken a lot out of him

6 -- Talk Logistics: rising from G3 stakes, second race after layoff, BUT: June 19 race seems to have taken a lot out of him, needs to be in early presser position to win, may have a problem

7 -- Game Over: rising from G3 stakes, lightly raced and improving, first after 49 day layoff, jockey switch: Needs to improve further and probably will regress, but worth a small win bet at 15-1

2 -- Outplay: Big Win in last race, first race after 57 day layoff, BUT: may regress, needs the lead to win, will struggle to get lead here

1 -- Timeline: first after 55 day layoff, can win if runs back to June 18 race, worth a win bet at 5-1

5 -- Irap: shortens up, 4th race after layoff, BUT: no value at 3-1 ML

8 -- Irish War Cry: first after 55 day layoff, Positive Jockey Switch to Lynch, can win this if runs back to June 10 race, worth a bet at 9/2

4 -- West Coast: shortens up, continues to improve, wins if runs back to Jun 10 race, BUT no value at 8/5 ML, use in exacta

Bets: win bets 8,1, small win bet 7, exacta box 4,8,1

Mitch44 09-23-2017 05:41 PM

4-8-1-5-10


Mitch44

DaveEdwards 09-23-2017 05:42 PM

6 and 1.
I'm quite excited by the 6. I believe it to be better than the current odds.

Mitch44 09-23-2017 05:58 PM

COMPLETED: fcecf-68a32 PRX
#11
$0.50 Trifecta1, 4, 5, 8, WT, 10, WT, 1, 4, 5, 8none $6.00 $0.00
- $6.00
Claim Winnings
Claim Winnings
COMPLETED: 1d425-3334f PRX
#11
$0.50 Trifecta1, 4, 5, 8, WT, 1, 4, 5, 8, WT, 10none $6.00 $33.60
+ $27.60
Claim Winnings
Claim Winnings
COMPLETED: 28a26-868b6 PRX
#11
$3 Exacta8, WT, 1, 4, 5none $9.00 $0.00
- $9.00

Bill V. 09-23-2017 09:50 PM

Congratulations
 
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I tried to hang in there, But today they had me in two ultrasounds and then prep for surgery, I started to work the race but I could not finish and even watch

Looks like Richie and Mitch had the winner and Exacta and Mith had the trifecta

Here is what I had

Horse 1 Timeline 5/1 EP 4 for 5 lifetime
Ran a (+) in the G1 Haskel Line 2 is a Grade 3 win line 97 days ago

Horse 2 Outpay 12/1 Early 3 for 7 lifetime Line 1 is a +
line at today's distance, It is a stake win at Saratoga Line 1

Horse 3 Watch Me Whip 20/1 Presser 1 for 4
This one only has a maiden win, It failed in the grade 3 Indy derby Line 2 is 90 days ago

Horse 4 West Coast 1.6/1 morning line favorite
EP 5 for 7 lifetimes.
The Travers winner. Line 1 is what all the other must beat Has never run a 0 race first or second in every start, Baffert and Smith

Horse 5 Irap 3/1 Presser 3 for 12 lifetime
+ race in a losing effort to West Coast in the Travers

Horse 6 Talk Logistics 20/1 Presser 1 for 10
This one only has a maiden win Has finished 2nd 5 times Line 1

Horse 7 Game Over 15/1 Presser 2 for 4 lifetime Finished second in the West Virginia
Derby Line 1

Horse 8 Irish War Cry 4.5/1 Early 4 for 8 lifetime. Almost won the Belmont, I would use that line except for the 12-furlong distance
Line 4 is the Wood Memorial at 9 furlongs
so I will use it

Horse 9 Term of Art 20/1 Sustained 2 for 12
Line 1 at Los Al is a throwout Line 2 is the line I will use

Horse 10 Giuseppe The Great 20/1 Presser 1 for 7 Got destroyed in the Travers at 45/1. Line 2 is
The best I can see for this one.


Readouts and results

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Results

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