Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up (
-   Breeders' Cup 2013 - SATURDAY Nov. 2 (
-   -   Today ... (

Ted Craven 11-02-2013 02:56 PM

Today ...
I'm proceeding with a lot of caution today, using at most half my normal wager unit - enjoying watching races if there's too much unclarity in any of them (which there is in a lot of them!)

The best opinion I have in any race so far, besides Wise Dan in the Mile, is in the Downhill Turf Sprint: #3 Chips All In and #12 Mizdirection

Re 'early bias' on dirt - I have to believe that the matchup of Earlies/Fighters and Pressers/Late horses in any race has at least as much impact on the outcome as any sudden weather or track maintenance issues.


Ted Craven 11-02-2013 03:03 PM

2 Attachment(s)
One race does not confirm anything, but the first dirt race today (#2) using Bill L's described E/ep analysis ( rates the winner well (on top), as does the traditional Best of Last 3 comparable (only 4 real contenders, though ...)

Attachment 36091

Attachment 36092

I'll check things as they go, out of curiosity ...


Ted Craven 11-02-2013 03:15 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Race 3

#1 shows some possibility as an overlay. I required (as for all the downhill Turf course sprints) that the contenders have shown some affinity for this particular, peculiar, surface, and in a decent time. If so, I'm happy to seek a better line (i.e. in case their 6.5T line was against a slow pace).

Attachment 36096

dirty moose 11-02-2013 03:57 PM

Hey Ted. Good luck out there!

dirty moose 11-02-2013 04:03 PM

In the 4th. The 1 will be my key horse. Will mostly bet the 1,10 to win

polambi 11-02-2013 04:06 PM

Ted...Good job at Santa Anita today! Too bad I didn't see your posts earlier, otherwise I would have thrown a few bucks on your selections. Keep it up!

DaveEdwards 11-02-2013 04:10 PM

Wow, what a finish to the 4th!

polambi 11-02-2013 04:24 PM

dirty moose .....Sorry for the disqualification in the 4th race. You did a good job getting the #10 to win. Keep it up!

Bill V. 11-02-2013 04:31 PM


Originally Posted by dirty moose (Post 93835)
In the 4th. The 1 will be my key horse. Will mostly bet the 1,10 to win

Sorry Matt

Hope you feel alright . Nice work picking the 10
Use that to your advantage as you move on


dirty moose 11-02-2013 04:36 PM

Thanks 's fellas! That one hurt tho.
If you ask me =)... Total crock o' sheet....

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