Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up (http://paceandcap.com/forums/index.php)
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-   -   I love the New modeling Template(4) (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11439)

pilot 01-23-2019 01:57 AM

I moved the stats down lower.

Ted Craven 01-23-2019 09:27 AM

That works too. When you get close to the Stats block, with a few blanks left, just INSERT your new rows from the export file into the next blank row above the stats block and all the range details and counts and Hit% Stats will be maintained.


Ted

pilot 01-23-2019 01:24 PM

Thank you, I think I will start fresh since I only have a handful of races. I do not think the program liked it when I moved the stats down about 8 lines.

Wayne

Bill Lyster 01-23-2019 05:22 PM

2 Attachment(s)
First just a few 7f races from SA:

Note that V/dc and BL/BL dominate at SA. (I only showed columns with significant top 4 percentages.) Several columns only have ones and twos. There can be ties represented here, but usually two horses fill these spots



Attachment 47650

Then quite a few more from GP:

Note how final odds and CSR dominate for this distance at GP (it can be different for other distances!) Top choice at 7f wins 50% of the time for the period of this model; 67% top two; 89% top three, etc.

Attachment 47651

This is why I said 7 furlong races using best of last 3 comparable was, so far, the most dependable model.

Get winnin'

pilot 01-23-2019 06:57 PM

Thank you Bill, looks very good.

Wayne

Bill Lyster 01-24-2019 12:13 AM

Just a note for the GP info. The two horses with all "9" ratings were first time starters. I manually added the "9" ranks in order to get all races in the stats below the list of races. Note too, that both FTS horses were top 3 final odds.

Mitch44 01-24-2019 09:10 AM

Proves that Sartin's guidelines for picking pace lines, best of last 3 comparable,is still viable today.


Good work Bill.


Mitch44

Bill Lyster 01-31-2019 11:47 PM

Okay, I have finished the model for GP races for 6f, 7f and 8f only on the dirt through yesterday. All races included. if first time starters won, I added the rank of "9" to various columns that otherwise would have shown "0".

If you want a copy that includes win and place info, PM me and include your email address because the file is too large to send over this website. I should have SA data completed by the weekend if interested. In the files already compiled I have hidden columns that did not rank the horse's performance, so, if you want to see the range of %med, or TS, or any other number, highlite the missing columns and just allow those columns to "show", and then you can see all the data. I have already sorted the data by class, but not sex or age.

Let me know what you would like.


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