A couple of old threads on TPR
 

Here are a couple of very good threads on the topic of TPR, by a poster who didn't seem to stick around very long.

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5613

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5645

Sam Wada of Factor W
 

The author of the two threads were penned by Sam Wada. Doc Sartin named Factor W after Sam Wada who I believed came up with the computation. I had the pleasure of hearing his presentations in some Sartin seminars, many years ago.

I have these two threads saved under my favorites as one of those great threads on this site.

I enjoyed Wada's approach in analyzing each contender in a race and his use of the Early/Late graph. But I enjoyed his level of confidence when he saw a "match-up advantage" in a specific race and his use of a "prime bet" when the occasion arose.

Yes, there are several posters who have posted great threads in their limited contribution but they provide great and compelling insights in our shared endeavors. :cool:

Great Threads
 

Lone Speed

I agree with you on Sam Wada's posts. They really grqabbed my attention. I'm a releative newbie and would benefit greatly from threads like these. Could you recall any other really great threads.

1 retired

Check out race 6 at CD (9/18/21). My lines had 2 and 7 with relatively large E/L numbers. The payoffs were big.

Ranchwest - Your post on TPR on 9/18 6 at Ch D
 

Ranchwest

I'm a newbie and I don't have RDSS so I can't look up the race and run it on RDSS. If I had it I would. Can you tell hme what the differences were. I'm trying to make a response to Lueylump's post on the iImportance of the E/L graph. Right now, I don't see a lot of interest in the website in following up on Lueylump's post on the angle of big wins at long odds on such horses. I'm working on developing a response to his post to Ted Craven and/or everyone else showing as many examples as possible. Your example would be a big helop. Right now besides the examples that leuylump shows, I have about 5 more from surfing the website. I think it would be a goood spot play angle for all of us to have. Can you help me out with your information? I'm looking up the race now on Equibase so I will have that but I won't have the numbers.

Thanks
1 Retired

ae gi

I don't have RDSS, at least not yet. I use my own personal program.

My lines:
1) 2
2) 1
3) 3
4) 2
5) Scratch
6) 2
7) 3
8) 1
9) 4
10) 2
11) 1
12) 1
13) 3
14) Scratch

So, my high E/L horses were: 2 1 7 10 in that order. I will let you do your own analysis. But here is the order of finish:

7 (13/1)
9 (9.3/1)
2 (9.6/1)

Ex: 228.20 (2.00)
Tri: 973.70 (.50)

My point here is that I have 7 and 2 rating very poorly in TE and neither were Prime Power Top 5, yet their high E/L numbers are how it is possible to hit this large tri if you can get the 9.

Hope this helps.

E/L Difference Graph, Lueylump =
 

Ranchwest

Thanks for the reply. I found from lueylump (SAM Wada), that when 1 horse has Early/Late Difference numbers of greater than 20, and their Early number is at least 5 greater than any other Early number (EPR), they can outrun their Total OPace Rating anbd Total Energy Number when their are non-competitive with all of the other horses in the race and win the race. I'm just looking to start an thread on this that will be hlelpful to all members so. that we can get more lwinning longshots. I probably won't gbe getting another computer until ChchirisMtnas as well as an RDSS subscription. IRight now I have an Apple that is on its very last legs. I can't even backspace to correct typo errors.

I've seen a couple more posts from FTL which identified similar longshots with these same characteristics and just want to flesh out the known information with everyone so that this angle becomes more obvious.

It's frustrating but I'll live with it till Christmas.

1 retired,

I
 

think this could be a great discussion with examples.

Bob

Here's that Race 6 CD 9/18. Using RDSS Defaults including Paceline selection:

Only change I think from Ranchwest lines is #1 horse, RDSS used line 1 (more recent, faster PoR, still good finish).

This gives E/L Diff Early ranked as 2/7/10. #9 horse is ranked 2nd on Rx.
FWIW, the #2 and #9 were 2nd and 3rd ranked ML in this field of Maiden Claimer 30K, the #2 2nd CR+ horse behind favourite. I did not retrieve the ProtfitLine or BRIS Prime Power ratings before they were unavailable.

Attachment 49929

Attachment 49930

Attachment 49928

BTW - the name behind member lueylump is/was not Sam Wada. I corresponded with him several times and knew the identity on his TrackMaster account. Not sure why Bill V thought that. Still, a very erudite user of the Sartin Methodology tools!

Ted