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-   -   M4$16/2 Oct 22-Capcondo (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10679)

The Pook 10-17-2016 08:30 AM

M4$16/2 Oct 22-Capcondo
 
1 Attachment(s)
Tim

Capcondo 10-21-2016 03:29 PM

Zia Park Race #2 1 mile
 
1 Attachment(s)
Post time is 2:43 ET. Enjoy.

Attachment 41559

The Pook 10-22-2016 10:12 AM

ZIA2

Potential lone early horse 48/112 in the 3. Best of the OTE is 4.

3,4 WIN
Pook

cigar 10-22-2016 10:52 AM

Zia r2
 
Pace: 24 - 48.1 - 112
Early
Contenders: 3-5-6
Win: 3-6

1 - slow out
2 - slow out
3 - fighter will get relief on the front end if #5 runs OTE - potential to steal
4 - will try to get the lead - out
5 - run better off the pace, not sure he can get route distance - out
6 - will be 1 or 2 lengths off the pace and get first jump at the leader
7 - moving up in class - out

The Pook 10-22-2016 11:29 AM

Fun Facts
 
I just ran some queries on the M4$ databases. For what its worth:

All plays

2015 M4$-March to November-443 bets- (-15.7% ROI)
2016 M4$-Jan to June-123 bets- (-9.6% ROI)
2016 M4$-Aug to present-56 bets- (+12.8% ROI)

Pook

The Pook 10-22-2016 11:32 AM

Looks to me like we are improving as a group in selecting good races to play and then executing on them.

Pook

mick 10-22-2016 12:29 PM

#5 to Win and Place.

Projected pace (excluding #5) - 24.0/48.0/1:12.0/1:36.4
Contenders - 1, 3, 4, 5

I think it will be "Early" and I see #5 taking them gate to wire. My projected pace is a combination of #3 and #4's last running lines. #5 can handle those fractions easily and should have the lead on #3 down the back stretch and through the turn. My concern is whether he will have anything left in that last furlong. He has won at 6.5f, but not at 8f. If he fades late, I think it will be #4 or #1 at the wire. I'm not convinced that #3 can keep up and he's a NTL.

In his prime, P Val was great at hustling horses out of the gate and getting them to relax on the lead. (Ernie Dahlman said that he made a lot of money betting P Val first up.) I have no idea how he rides these days. Frankly, I had no idea he was still riding. I also had no idea where Zia Park is. Had to google it. :-)

mick

gandalf380 10-22-2016 02:39 PM

this looks like ote for me. I will go with #1 and #7.

#1 Shawnee Kid
#7 Cyber Star

both to win.

Capcondo 10-22-2016 02:41 PM

It looks to me like the 3, 4, and 5 have speed. I'm looking for something around a 23.1 by the 4 but the 5 based on his last 2 races may go faster. I like the race to go OTE. But, getting too far behind at this track is a bad idea.

2: Nothing in last 4 races since claimed. OUT
6: Not a horse.

This leaves me with the 7 and the 1. The 7 looks like he'll get too far behind. The 1 should stay relatively close and can handle a fast pace based on the sprint in the bottom line.

The 1 to win.

mowens33 10-22-2016 02:43 PM

48-112
Contenders: 1 3 4 5
Looking for the 3 and 4
Win 3 and 4


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