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-   -   Models: various tracks, days (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11418)

Ted Craven 01-03-2018 06:40 PM

Models: various tracks, days
 
I'll post some Models in Excel format for random days of races. These Models were created using the Export feature in RDSS 2.1.045, described in this video: http://www.rdss2.com/video/RDSS2.1.Models.mp4.

Sometimes I'll make comments about interesting factors for a given day and track, but you can see the important ones in the Stats block coloured pink.

I use Default Config settings. I always run the toteboard (well, mostly). I tend to demote to Secondary any horses worse than Top 4 Rx3, and any horses worse than Top 5 ML and/or Top 5 live Odds (usually Top4). Usually this leaves almost all Winners and many Place horses in the remaining Top 4.

However, other factors are sometimes fascinating!

You may note FTS in the export (i.e. in the Analysis tabs). I introduced this in the version I will release next, so don't be concerned if your version of RDSS 2.1 does not do that.

If anyone wants to try RDSS 2.1 (still under development), please just write!

I encourage everyone using RDSS 2.1 to update it to the current download Version 2.1.045 in the Download thread of the RDSS2.1 Testing Forum.

Note: the Stats area on these Models shows the Hit % for the Top 4 ranks of ranked factors, plus the Top2, Top3 and Top 4. This is an INTERIM Stats area: an even more important addition soon, will be the $ROI by rank and rank group.

Ted

Ted Craven 01-03-2018 06:51 PM

Models: 01/03/2017
 
2 Attachment(s)
Here are all the races for TAM and GP today. It is SO COLD everywhere else north, I can't even think of the northern tracks :eek:

Attachment 45175

Attachment 45176

Interesting notes:

TAM

Winners: 100% Top4 and ties: BL, VDC, CR+, TSF3+ ProfitLine, Rx1,2,3, ML Odds, Win Odds

Winners: 100% Top 3 and ties: L/ep, Tpp, HID, Rx2

Winners: Top 2 and ties: VDC (70%) F3, DCL, LPR (80%) PoR F3 (90%) TP+F3 (80%)

GP

The Early/Late Diff rank# 1 or 2 (from the TPR screen) accounted for 89% of the winners (8 of 9 races) That is, 1st or 2nd most Early or most Late energy distribution.

(more to follow ...)

raceman5 01-04-2018 11:11 AM

Ted
 
What did you use for pace line selection? Did you group Turf racing into that?


Bob

Ted Craven 01-04-2018 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raceman5 (Post 113560)
What did you use for pace line selection? Did you group Turf racing into that?


Bob

I used the default Paceline Selection Strategy - Best of Last 3 Comparable distance/surface Perceptor rating.

All races from both tracks yesterday. Both had some turf races.

Ted

Ted Craven 01-04-2018 01:54 PM

One caveat so far about modeling the Tote board Win odds ranks and Tx factors ranks - they are captured after the race has run, so the ranks may change compared to when you need the info - say at less than 2 MTP.

In my anecdotal observation so far (and perhaps for Bill V as well with his 600+ race models including tote?), I'd like to say the ranks don't move more than 1 up or down in general compared to where they are at 0 MTP when you can still make a bet - though that remains to be proven. This is an improvement we could make: capture these volatile tote-related ranks at a user-defined (and perhaps track-specific) MTP, say +1 or 0. Use those pre-race ranks in models instead.

Ted

Bill V. 01-04-2018 07:15 PM

FairGrounds 1/4/18
 
1 Attachment(s)
Hi Ted
I did not do so well with my ranking as you did yesterday but
broke even betting the top 2 RX3 Horses with no other decisions by me.

winning races 1,4,6,8,9
Bet $32
Won$31.4

I used the default Paceline Selection Strategy - Best of Last 3 Comparable distance/surface Perceptor rating. DTV set at +15/-15

All 9 races from today at Fairgrounds 1/4/18
I could only capture the live tote 1 and 2 in race 1,6,7,8 (Doctors appointment)

Winners: 100% Top4 and ties: VDC, HID, SPN,Win Odds

Winners: 80% Top 3 and ties: Win odds,

Winners: Top 2 and ties:Win odds,80% VDC (78%) CSR (67%) RX1(67%)

Here is my model file for FG010418

Attachment 45177

Ted Craven 01-04-2018 07:23 PM

Thanks Bill! Just for the record, my posts above for Jan 3 and my models so far are not tracking profitability, only % hit rates. I didn't bet yesterday or today, but I did on Tuesday (SUN and TUP) with modest profit.

I want to update the Stats in the Model sheet to track ROI on $2 Win bets, also track Exacta combos ROI.

I did GP and FG today, capturing all tote stuff. I'll post those as soon as I am able. Hope we have similar stats :eek:

Thanks for the contribution!

Ted

Jeebs 01-05-2018 09:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill V. (Post 113563)
Hi Ted
I did not do so well with my ranking as you did yesterday but
broke even betting the top 2 RX3 Horses with no other decisions by me.

winning races 1,4,6,8,9
Bet $32
Won$31.4

I used the default Paceline Selection Strategy - Best of Last 3 Comparable distance/surface Perceptor rating. DTV set at +15/-15

All 9 races from today at Fairgrounds 1/4/18
I could only capture the live tote 1 and 2 in race 1,6,7,8 (Doctors appointment)

Winners: 100% Top4 and ties: VDC, HID, SPN,Win Odds

Winners: 80% Top 3 and ties: Win odds,

Winners: Top 2 and ties:Win odds,80% VDC (78%) CSR (67%) RX1(67%)

Here is my model file for FG010418

Attachment 45177

Hiya Bill. Are you hiding horses off the RX3 or including all the horses?

Bill V. 01-06-2018 12:23 AM

Win only or win/secondary
 
1 Attachment(s)
Hi Jeebs

I could not post a full card today, I downloaded and got about 14 races from
GP, Tam, FG, SA, GG, and DED saved with the live tote, but I could not stay
with any off these tracks for the full card
Some days are better than others and today was not a good one for me health wise:(

Anyway to answer your question I almost always just keep everybody
as a win contender. Sometimes I will move a horse to a secondary
contender but its usually just a few realy bad rated horses .

The rankings do or might change if you only make the top 4 RX3 horses
win contenders and drop the rest to secondary

Here is an example from tonight's 8th at DED

I saved the race both ways You can see a small difference in some of the ranking.

Attachment 45180

Good Skill
Bill

smitty73 01-09-2018 12:51 PM

Hi Ted,
Re: the spreadsheet, is it possible to add more than 18 races to the Win or Place tabs? I tried inserting a week worth of win horses pacelines above the "copy win horse paceline above here" and the formula showed calculation errors.
Smitty


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