Sunland Derby
 

Finally one of these preps pays well with a logical pace lines and the winner ranks in the top 3.
I did not bet this but I worked it as soon as I saw it had run on a post at PA.

The 9 is a sustained runner
There were lots of Early and EP MS only winners


Here are my notes

Sunland Derby Grade 3 $800.000 3 yo

Top 5 TPR 3,6,9,4,11 ( Line 1 all horses )
Fulcrum POR 87.5 111.3

Horse 1. Sus Non contender only usable +
paceline is line 3 but Its against a very slow pace

Horse 2. EP Its + paceline is it's ms win
against a slow POR Non contender Line 2

Horse 3. Early . It has a + paceline in line 1 but its only a MS54 win The POR was faster than
today's Fulcrum but only at 8 furlongs
I wll rate off line 1

Horse 4. E/P Similar to horse 3 , It has all +
pacelines line 1 Is a MS72 win so that is the rating line .

Horse 5. Presser This is the fulcrum horse
line 1 is a + pace line at 8.5 at todays track
Contender

Horse 6 , Presser, Another MS72 winner
Line 1 is a 0 paceline Line 2 is the rating line
Not a serious contender

Horse 7. Scratch

Horse 8. SP, Seconditis special, 30/1 ML
This one 6 Place + pace lines 7 of 10
however , it looks out classed in here
having run in a graded race and it only shows a MS23 win. I will rate off line 2

Horse 9, SP This is a good example of why its important to rate every horse off its last line FIRST , Line 1 looks , and is a 0 race but the TPR is one of the top 3. Line 2 is a MS72 win line. It is recent I will rate using this line . I don't want to use a off track but the options are limited and the DTV does not look like it was a factor .

Horse 10, Presser Line 1 is excused, as a first race after a long layoff at the wrong surface, Line 2 is excused for class line 3 is the rating paceline but its only against ST80 2 year olds
rating only

Horse 11. Presser Line 1 is a + paceline. Its current,

Horse 12. Early, Line 1 is a + paceline. Its current,

Attachment 42989

Attachment 42990

Attachment 42991

Fulcrum question
 

Hi Bill,

Not being a pest, I promise! I thought the fulcrum had to be today's distance and surface? The Sunland Derby was 9f, while the fulcrum line was 8.5f. Wouldn't that technically not be a fulcrum?

Yes
 

You are not a pest It is a good observation, yes the fulcrum should be the exact same distance , but I used horse 5
Horse 5 ran at 8.5 from Sunland , nobody in the race ran 9 furlongs , and since the the fulcrum must come from the last line I excused the half furlong difference.
Most all the other horses were coming from 8 furlong races and other tracks
The fulcrum method is a contender tool
Bill

Nice score Bill.
Tim G

Nice work Bill.
Mitch44

Thank You
 

Thank you
Tim and Mitch