Taking a stand against Freisan Fire and why
 

The two screen shots show Freisan Fire's pp's and his E/L info for those races. Note that when this horse was winning big he was no more than about 1.5 lengths off the pace of the race.

Most of his good races were against mid 1:13 6 furlong calls. His Derby was not good, but the pace of the Derby was significantly faster than he had ever shown he could handle, being 1:12.1 (tenths). Aside from having some problems, I would argue that the pace got to him as much as the problems. Here's why.

The Hat said that for every fifth of a second that a horse was forced to race faster it would penalize the horse 2 fifths coming home. Okay, the pace of the Derby, in E/L terms, was about 91+99 = 190. (MTB's E/L total for the race.) If we allow FF to run 1.5 lengths off that pace, so that the EPR = 89.5 and compare it to his recent races, see what happens (I am going to discount the mud romp that netted an E/L of 197.5 for now.)

Feb 7 FG race: 83.9 + 108.6 = 192.5 (I think he improved from the prev race)

Derby project at 89.5 + (-5.6 x 2+108.6 = 97.4) = total E/L = 187.9 (vs the winner's E/L of 190). In tomorrow's race I think Big Drama ensures an even faster pace that will zap FF even more.

Cautionary note: you can't just slow down a race and apply this two for one formula ad infinitum. There has to be a form of terminal velocity expressed as LPR that horses can run no matter how slow the first half of the race is. FF's best LPR (mud line ) is 112; Derby winner's was 113.5, only Pioneer of the Nile was 112.6 in past races. Most of these horses have topped out at something less than 109 while running early paces (EPR's) in the mid to low 80's. This is what makes Rachel Alexandra so intriguing - EPRs in hi 80's or low 90's and LPR's 105 to 109, a bunch of them in a row.

Other things to think about relative to this example: Like humans I suspect that each horse has its own version of terminal velocity so in paceless races or marathons, for instance, it isn't always the horse with the theoretical best closing fraction that wins. (The Hat again, with the spot play winner being closest to the pace at the 1 mile mark in marathons.) Not all the contenders have shown the ability to run LPR's above 110. Unless they are super close to the pace, stick a fork in'em.

good luck to all tomorrow,

I threw him out a long time ago. Never was impressed by his perfect trip wins.
I find in interesting that so many are looking for excuses for his 'bad' effort in the Derby. I'd be real surprised if FF made an appearance in the Preakness.

One last caution: I suspect that the two for one adjustment is a generalization that fits most horses and that there are some horses who decelerate slower and faster than the 2-for-1 rate; I've seen some horses whose decel appears to be about 1.5:1 for instance. This kind of goes along with the terminal velocity/max LPR statement above.

he was made the favorite in the derby off a 7 week layoff,only good races came at faigrounds in the slop and was never past 1 1/16.he made value in the derby by being a very beatable favorite,wish i liked mine that bird in that race.