PP Line Selection
 

I have the program set up to find the best of the last three races using the preceptor. Since the chosen line often does not conform to the + (+) and 0 as well as offtrack and class do you override the program and chose a line that does meet these requirements? I try not to use off tracks when possible as well as not using 5F races, what do you do with the non plus races that are chosen?

Hi Fairchild. I will override the program anytime I don't agree with the line it has selected. I find that this happens maybe 5% of the time. The program does an excellent job of selecting lines.
Tim

Those that don't review the automatic procedure will pay the price of having more losers. It does not take long to review. What I have found is that the program uses the last 3 lines rather than the last 3 lines at a comparable distance and surface.


Every horse has a best distance and surface. Even very classy horses can compete at different distances and surfaces however their best races as indicated by wins, best total energy or best Preceptor which can indicate a specific distance or surface. Trainers and owners frequently enter their horses at inappropriate conditions because no other race is available in the condition book and they have a sharp horse, don't want to pay the shipping costs,or are just plain inept. And there is lots of that. What better time to try something than when the horse is sharp or peak form. Such as turf, the horse will have no excuse and what do they learn if the horse is out of form? Nothing
at all.


It is a fact that the further one goes back for a line the less likelihood its the same horse.(form factor) Sartin recommended never going back past the 5th line. Also that the further one goes back the % of having the correct line drops off, or in other words more line #1 win that lines 5 etc. This has more to do with the form factor of a horse than what the actual line is.

While I ignore the guideline of the 5th line I'm successful at it because of experience and an analysis of a horses record. There are exception to every rule and most people are rule orientated and lack the experience to make the proper judgmental decisions in rare or unusual situations that are a minority to the norm. Therefore I recommend Sartin guidelines (not rule) of never going past line 5 for a proper pace line. This will capture all but the rarest of situations but will produce better prices and get more winners than restricting one's self to blindly accepting the last 3 lines without verification.

Like Lt1 I override the program whenever I disagree with it. Your brain is smarter than the program.


Mitch44

Thank you for your replies. I only change the line from what the preceptor has chosen maybe 5% of the time myself. Usually I try to get rid of offtrack lines and lines using a different surface. I have found that when a line doesn't meet the + (+) 0 requirements it generally doesn't meet my requirement of being in the top 5 TE anyway so the horse is tossed out of the contender list.


Mostly, I just wanted to know what others thought about the lines chosen by the preceptor tool. It does do a good job of finding the best line in most cases, but I always look at the race conditions, offtrack and surface factors rather then blindly keeping a line.


Thanks for the replies

I don't use off track lines ever,even when todays conditions are sloppy or muddy etc. It has been my experience that the best horse still wins regardless of the off track conditions. The old muddler's axiom just doesn't hold water(pun intended) under close scrutiny,if it ever did.


I'm religiously a firm believer in the Preceptor for picking of pace lines and nothing supersedes it accept perhaps the brain and that's doubtful at best and on rare occasions. The Preceptor outperforms the old + and 0's pace lines. Now why would I say that. Because it detects hidden moves within the pace line that the eye or human brain fails to comprehend and or see. The preceptor considers all 3 Fractions and all Primary Factors. The old school + and 0's from way back when is long past its prime and while they can be used they fail to measure up when compared to the Preceptor and a waste much valuable handicapping time that should be devoted to analysis of factors,tools, analysis of horses PP's, and structure of betting etc.


Now I'm sure the naysayers will chime in and that's fine as to each their own. Its like over 30 flavors of ice cream in that some like a particular flavor and can never get past it to even try the others. Myself I like the flavor that is going to get me the most winners. Horse racing is like medicine or the medical profession in that to be successful one must keep up with new procedures, techniques or kill the patient. Well in horseracing you are the patient.


Mitch44

Thanks for the reply. I am always curios about how others use the program. We both use the line chosen by the preceptor tool a high percentage of the time. I now have a related question. When a horse has had 3 terrible races that were all run under similar conditions the preceptor will still pick the best of the three, do you drop that horse from win contention at that time?



What do you do to qualify a horse as a contender? Myself, I look at the BL/BL screen and get rid of any horses that rank worse then 5 on both the Primary and Secondary line scores. Now and then I might keep a horse that ranks 6 if it shows color, but that is seldom. This works well for me and I get a good percentage of winners that generally rank in my top three.

In response to your first question, 3 bad races in a row. I would still look as to why I made it a contender in the first place. 3 bad races in a row is not a good sign and indicates the horse is going in the wrong direction. A horse can be given an excuse such as first race after a lay off or a bad race before a lay off. Class should always be looked at because if a horse is too far up in class it can't expect to be competitive. Generally speaking a horse that has been placed properly to surface and distance and has raced 3 bad races as indicated by a declining Preceptor ratings, declining Total Energy or declining Speed Ratings can be safely tossed.


One can get their contenders from eliminating from the bottom BLBL similar to what Sartin recommended by using Total Energy. Actually BLBL is better than Total Energy for getting rid of non contenders. Not sure BLBL was available when Sartin made that recommendation. Caution: do not use the Preceptor for eliminating contenders as it measures a horse against its self within the horses PP's. It does not consider other factors such as the matchup against the other horses within the race. BLBL supersedes it when comparing against other horses best Preceptor lines. Also BLBL is better than the Primary line score although they may be close the BLBL will produce more winners.


Having said all that it works when one can pick the correct pace line to be rated. Most have a problem even using the Preceptor because they refuse to go past the last line or some other ancient idea they cling to. Stubborn resistance to change is the Achilles heel of most handicappers.


Also the BLBL is dependent on a single correct pace line. I would recommend that this pitfall or punji stake trap can be and should be avoided for contenders. How you may ask? By using something that is a composite rating that is not dependent on any one race or line. Within RDSS there are several factors for this such as CR, CR+, CSR, APV, RX 1 & 3 Etc. The RX factors are weighted by the proper picking of pace lines also and I believe their better suited for analysis than the picking of contenders. Of these I prefer the CR for various reasons. All of these can have its own pitfalls as to how their obtained such as not being surface or distance specific but their not dependent on the proper choosing of one specific pace line. They quickly eliminate non contenders and save time for analysis of contenders after pace lines have been chosen.There are also some excellent composites outside of the program such as from BRIS which I use.


Using a composite for contenders can and should greatly increase your chance for success.


Mitch44

Been around
 

Hello Mitch

You wrote :
Yes BLBL has been around since Pace Launcher 4
This is when Doc began to teach using the top 5 Total Energy and Top 5
Primary Line score,

Thanks, Mitch for your lessons on this subject

Good Skill

Using multiple pacelines
 

Hi, Fairchild. If you're stumped choosing a paceline, you can select multiple pacelines and RDSS will crunch through all of them for you. You simply hold down the Ctrl key and check additional pacelines. It's discussed on page 37 of the Illustrated Glossary.

And thanks, Mitch, for your excellent posts.

Thanks Mick
I will look that up.
Most races the PP lines to use are easy to see. I was just curious what you guys thought about the preceptor and how you work around horses that preceptor chose off tracks for and when preceptor chooses races that are many days ago.
Last night at Delta I avoided horses that hadn't ran for a long time and got bit. In race 2 I got beat by a horse that had not ran in over 300 days and in race 4 the horse had not ran in over 200 days. In FTL's posts he states that those horses only win around 5% of their races, I used up my 5% last night. That"s the breaks

Hi Fairchild,

The long layoff is one of those unknown factors one should take into consideration when deciding the viability of making money on a race. The key in cutting losses is identifying those races where multiple horses sport various unknowns. It’s a lot easier to win when the races you play have limited to zero noise. Dealing with unknowns can cause confusion and lead you onto horses that really are not contenders. Limit the unknown factors in your handicapping and you will have greater success.

Thanks MicK.


There are at times where the Preceptor rates more that one race very close. Here is how I handle that situation.

Do as Mick states and hold down the control key than pick more than one line for the horse and it will rate both on BLBL


BLBL is better than the Preceptor for evaluation of a line because it considers all the horses whereas the Preceptor only considers the horse itself.


The Preceptor will 95% or better give you the correct line however it doesn't consider the match up of contenders such as BLBL does. But when the Preceptor ratings are very close without a nice gap what I do is the following:


1. Pick lines for all your other contenders.


2. Come back and compare more than one line for the horse in question. This allows BLBL to use its full power such as the match up and determine the correct line when unsure between two lines.


3. If the horse in question is your first contender for line selection your at the mercy of the programs automatic line selection being correct for proper evaluation by the readouts in the final pane screen with final readouts of all horses, such as BLBL. Much easier to come back after confirming or picking lines for your other 4 contenders.


4. For success all lines picked by the program should be reviewed for confirmation and that you concur, or you'll incur unnecessary loses. I confirm with the Preceptor.


Sartin taught back in the 1990's to use the power of the program and computer to decide on a line rather than your own bias or what you think is the correct line. The program is smarter than us in many ways.


Its not the norm to find very close rankings in the Preceptor but when confronted with it the solution is a simple one.


Mitch44

I certainly appreciate all the help everyone has been willing to give.
Most days I have been able to get the right contenders. What I am working on now is learning to pass races that are either too noisy or don't have the odds necessary for the risk.
I generally only play 1 track on any given day so it is really difficult to pass on a race, but it is necessary to make a profit.



I hate passing a race when the odds don't justify the risk only to have the odds improve on 2 of my contenders after the bell. :mad:

Unknown Factors
 

In a post above Jeebs wrote: Limit the unknown factors in your handicapping and you will have greater success.

I disagree. Sure, if you measure success by how many winners you can pick, then go ahead and limit the unknown factors. But guess what: a race with virtually zero unknown factors will be easy to handicap for everyone betting the race, and it is highly unlikely the winner will be +EV. Especially when the syndicates and rebate players all land on the same horse(s) in such a race.


You will only find +EV these days when there is some uncertainty in the race, especially when the uncertainty requires some sort of human judgement or analysis that computers cannot easily handle.


Remember, if you are looking to actually make serious $ betting in a pari-mutuel pool, the object is NOT to pick more winners or fewer losers. The goal is to find the 60% of races where the favorite does not win and bet (and win) on horses that pay $10 or more, except, of course, if you are betting large enough to receive a serious rebate on your churn.


Richard

Fairchild:


In reference to post #10 of this thread and layoffs. I absolutely don't agree with FTL in reference to both layoffs and horses whose Morning line is 20-1 or higher. Yes the stats are low but there is no qualifiers to those stats therefore they are totally misleading.


I have no problem with layoff horses or long odds horses and can handle those situations. I posted how I do that but I'm not going to sound like a broken record here. Look up my posts and you'll find that. Layoff horses win more races now then they did years ago. Sartin said once a horse has been off over 30 days their form is no different than a horse that has been off a year.


Racing has changed however we still encounter the same problems on a daily basis such as layoffs, cutbacks, stretch outs etc. Either learn how to handle them or pass many races.


If one wants to know about the unknown than study the unknown.


Mitch44

Gp
 

Some tracks offer better value from layoff horses than others
Also class of races and playing all type of races will get you better prices.
from layoff horses


For example, looking at Gulfstream Park
For the winter meeting which started on Dec 1st
In my current model. I have 237 races for older male and female
horses, No maiden races and no races with less than 7 horses

In those 237 races, 105 winners were off 30 days or less
132 winners were off over 30 days

The average win price for the 105 winners off 30 days or less
is $13.30

The average win price for the 132 winners off 30 days or more
is $12.26

When Doc's refers to recency of horses winning with layoffs over 30 days
He does not provide track specific data, He did teach that to be a consistent
winner only personnel record keeping is the best way to know what wins at the tracks we work,

his words of "know thy track " said it best

Generally speaking and my in experience layoff horses do pay more. Now I have seen layoff horses that have been absence for a year or more and the public makes it the favorite and it'll win. I would never bet a horse like that as there is no risk reward there which is one of my criteria to bet long layoff horses.


Averages distort the normal occurrence of anything being measured to include the average depth of a river. If you can't swim one better not cross as an average depth of 4 feet may become 10 feet along the way. Average prices is something I just don't factor into any of my handicapping.


Some of those Monkey bombs I hit are horses specifically off over 90 days. The public tends to buy into old racing axioms of yesteryear. Class step ups are another the public overlooks.


I would say that at least 20% of races the public just cannot deal with and these races pay big. Many of these horses are very gettable. This game is about making profit. The majority horses won't be qualifier's, no different than many races aren't playable. Just like any race money management is a key ingredient for any recipe, particularity of horses or races that don't fit the norm.


Mitch44

Data
 

Hello Mitch and all

I present these data findings not to question Doc's teachings
Throwing out horses or saying the best prices all come from horses off over
31 days is fine, However, successful gambling and or working races involves expectations and probabilities.

The way I work races and at the tracks, I work I have more success
working with expectations and probabilities.
It works for me.

In my recent post about my near $500 pick 5 with a $6 ticket,
4 of the 5 races were won by horses paying less than $10
One race was won with a $17 price.

All 5 winners were horses whose last race was a + plus race
less than 30 days These type horses win consistently and when grouped together can pay off nicely.

Race 1 #7 29 days Paid $7.80
Race 2 #2 29 days Paid $6.40
Race 3 #2 21 days Paid $17.60
Race 4 #1 27 days Paid $9.20
Race 5 #5 29 days Paid $3.40

Pick 5 paid $488

Best Skill to all

Bill

More facts and data
 

In my model of 237 races
here are the days since last race and winning prices for horses that paid $10
or higher

Attachment 47683
Attachment 47684
Attachment 47685

Wow My little question about preceptor line selection has really generated a lot of good information, thank all of you very much.
:D

Fairchild as you can see there are several ways that members approach picking pacelines. I myself am in the no automatic throw outs camp since I never learned that from Doc or any of the other teaching member. The important thing to remember is that unless you are getting the proper contenders, by whatever selection process you settle on, paceline selection will end up moot. Putting in a bad horse or 2 will throw your readouts out of whack. Keeping records of your results is paramount to success. If you don't have the winner in your mix 85 to 90% of the time then contender selection needs to be revisited.
Tim

Just for clarity I never said I only bet horses over 30 days or 0ver 90 days. They come when they do and only become a play if they meet my criteria. A horse with a morning line of 20-1 is just someone else's opinion. I can make that decision for myself and have the confidence to make it better than those who made the line.

When one looks that even the best will lose at least 1/3 of races played coupled with 90 day horses, horses over 20-1 account for another 20%. That's a whopping 53% going into races before you pick up a pen or turn on your CP. Not counting cutbacks, stretch-outs. Well I just refuse to give up those kinds of percentages going into a race.

I also don't concur with the Doc's theory of wager capping. When I handicap a race I am strictly win oriented. And don't care if the horse pays $2.80. Winners are the springboard for all bets. And a $2.80 horse can spring a great EX, Tri, DD etc. I always ask the question how can I make money out of this race and design my betting to take advantage of my handicapping. If the options aren't there I'll put $2 on it because I spent time doing the race however I'm not going to put $50 or $100 into a low paying win horse. I've seen many nice $35 Ex. with favorites.

The race itself must be evaluated just like the horses. The public tends to make the same mistakes everyday. They also tend to hammer one or two horses and a legit top 3rd or top 4th horse pays very well. They all tend to follow the morning line, tote etc. And then there are the tin men at the track that don't have any heart and just can't bet a good price horse, however to reap the rewards one must make the bet.

One should collect their own stats before believing everything that they read is gospel. How stats are collected are very prone to mistakes and are greatly affected by age, distance etc. Especially prices as routes are more form-full that sprints, age etc. The game has also changes and with it some old stats, believes are no longer valid. Days since last race is one of them.

Mitch44

In post #22 above Mitch44 wrote: "I always ask the question how can I make money out of this race and design my betting to take advantage of my handicapping."


One of the best sentences I have ever read on this board. Excellent post. Thank you.


Richard

Thanks very much Richard, your comment is greatly appreciated.

Betting is a big part of success and greatly neglected by the masses.

An example of this was last year we were doing races on this site from Delmar. That's a tough track because they card many turf races ,2 yr' old's and under developed 3 yr. The turf races there encounter many horses running for the first time on turf. The race put up was an older horse race and pretty straight forward but the best horse towered over the field with a low M / L, definitely going to be a low paying favorite. I didn't see a good EX for the race and winners are always easier to pick so I looked to the DD. The race after nothing jumped off the page for me however the race before was favorable. I hit it and DD paid over $ 500.00 for $2 ticket, the post and ticket bet is somewhere in my posts.

Many will dismiss that post as luck but it was nothing of the sort. My definition of luck has always been; " Preparation meeting destiny."


Mitch44

I keep saying that averages are very deceptive as are all stats. When a stat is stated the reader has no idea how that stat was collected. How something is gathered, is a very critically important or key ingredient to any statistical facts. And unless you're the gatherer there is absolutely no way of knowing the truth of the fact. And even then it may be a flawed study. Additionally common sense isn't used in the harvesting of facts.

In horse racing the game is fraught with facts. No one questions their validity and blindly accepts them. Case in point; it is stated that favorites win 33% of time and have for the last 50 or 60 years. Today this is no longer true because the game has changed with many more tracks, shorter fields, not enough horses to go around all of which which increase the number of favorites. And it always was that higher class horses are more consistent and have a higher % of favorites winning. Few have broken this down by class. There is a huge difference between older G1 horses favorites winning % and the % of the lowly NW2L etc. type races. Remember that 33% encompassed all and the worst races brought down those averages.


As far as stats for horses under 30 days returning paying more than horses with longer layoffs. well I find that suspect at best. Most likely there were one or two longshots in there that distorted the average price. Definitely not the norm. I wouldn't include such horses in that study or even the lowest ones. One should be looking for the median of that category not the abnormal exceptions. I stated a horse I saw a horse laid off for over a year at Tampa and coming back with a suspicious drop that won and was made the favorite, definitely not a normal occurrence.

There always abnormal occurrences of things and will always be, especially in horse racing. We should be looking to capture the many not the exceptions. Also nothing burger stats mean just that to me NOTHING.


Mitch44

Del Mar Race of the day - Summer 2017
 

Here you go, Mitch

The Del Mar race of the Day back in summer of 2017

You did awesome with many smart bets

Here is the $500 double post

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11299

GS
Bill

Stats
 

Hi Mitch

my stats posted in this thread are clearly noted,
only races from GP in the current winter meeting for older male and female
horses No maiden races and no races with less than 7 horse
The same criteria Rmath uses for his studies although RMath uses more than 1 track.

I will gladly sort and eliminate anything you can come up with
but I believe the numbers will still support that long layoff horses on a whole
do not pay better than horses off less than 31 days at GP This is what I look for
Expectation and probabilities

Let me know :)

Best
Bill

Hello Bill,


Hope your health is as good as your handicapping, which is always excellent.


Like you just trying to pass on some knowledge to the new members here. There really are some very good handicappers here. We aren't robots and we all have our techniques. The site is like brain storming and the RDSS program encompasses the best of all Sartin's work.


When I started I was overwhelmed with Sartin material but eventually the light went off. So many tools and not a easy subject to master. But those that are great at anything didn't get there overnight.


You Bill are one that has paid his dues and have risen above the rest.


Good skill Bill.


Mitch44

Bill if it works for you then keep on doing. Just trying to enlighten and help out.
We both love ice cream just different flavors.


Meet you at the ice cream parlor Bill and maybe we can collaborate with a scoop of each. That would be nice and Saratoga maybe the right parlor in August with its many flavors.


Mitch44

Sure thing
 

Hello Mitch

I am very happy to share my work, for Pace and Cap members
I take my model work very serious

Something I learned from Ted and M. Pizzola in the book Pace Makes The Race. Neatness and diligence will lead to perfection.

Special shout and thank you to Rmath, His blueprint for races worked
makes my models powerful

Thank you for the kind word Icecream with you and my friends at Saratoga:)
Nothing will ever taste so good to me, I will make it with all my strength
and the blessings from God.

You make many great points here Mitch!!!:cool:
Thank for your sharing....

Your welcome Lone speed.


Mitch44

The best Preceptor line should be checked against two things:


1. That the line chosen conforms to the horses normal ESP running style. I'm talking about the computer driven running style from % Med. not the visual style as indicated by RS. These are entirely two different things. A horse can go wire to wire on the lead and not be an Early horse. The % Med is a much more accurate measurement that doesn't fool the eyes and deceive the brain. By clicking on a horses TPR+ E/L tap one can see how a horse normally runs by the blue and red graphs. Within these graphs are contained various styles; Red = E,EP and P, Blue = SP,S and L. Some horses will have all red or all blue but what do we do with a horse that has both? Now here is a key to this, the reason a horse may have both is they tend to only do what they have to in a race. Look at its CPR and Total Energy numbers and choose a graph style that indicates it highest numbers for CPR & Tot. Energy as its preferred and best running style. Then choose a line that conforms to its style as verified by its better CPR and Tot. En. ratings.

2.That the variant for that line isn't taken from an non-normal track variant. The average variant is approximately 17 .They tend to run lower in the west where there is less rain and slower in the east where not only more rain but deeper tracks. Typically variants are normal from 7 to 27. This encompasses 5 lengths
Its not unusual to find variants of 40 to 50 or far below 7, on heavy turf races or frozen tracks. Once these variants get beyond a certain point their accuracy are doubtful at best. Many horses can be gotten by more than one line. To check this is simple, just go to the BLBL screen and click on the original tab and all the variants are shown for the horses and lines chosen. Or it can be done at the time of selecting a line as the variant is shown to the right side.


One and two above are also valid reasons to go past a line in using Sartin guidelines of best of the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface.


Mitch44

Mitch, Thanks. Once again you stimulate my thinking and provide alternatives to more traditional approaches in the use of RDSS. I really appreciate what you share with us.
Pat

When to use best of last three
 

I use RDSS but I export to Thoromation 2A. I am more confident with the output from this software. I find from the tracks that I wager that if I use the best of last three on “higher class” races it works like a charm. For lower quality races I rarely go back more than two lines and prefer to stick with the last paceline. I’ve enjoyed the posts on this thread. Thanks.

Should this horse be moved to the non contender because the last 6.5F was 105 Days ago. Or would you pick the last line because he finished ITM and its at least a sprint on the same surface. I'm thinking use the last line at least its resant


http://paceandcap.com/forums/data:im...AASUVORK5CYII=







http://paceandcap.com/forums/data:im...AASUVORK5CYII=






http://paceandcap.com/forums/data:im...AASUVORK5CYII=

sorry guess i don't know how to past in a screen shot of what i'm taking about.

Sorry one more try

Attachment 48408

I would not downgrade a horse just because it has been absence. Compare the conditions of today race to his PP chart. How is its workout pattern?Can the trainer win with horses after a long layoff? Has the horse ever ran well after a layoff before?Are you getting good odds or risk reward for the risk etc.?


I can't really tell or give you an answer with the small print of your screen shot.


Mitch44

Thanks for the input. I haven't been able to figure our how to put a good screen shot in the thread.