Race 5 The Marathon - Hat Method
 

14 horses entered
Top horses by class rating: 2,1,7,11,4,14
Top APV horses: 1,4,2,14,10

I used hard copy of the PPs for Euros. The info does not translate correctly in RDSS, so for distance, grade of race, purse size and time, I used the hard copy info

Notes per horse:
1 - S - OC 100 highest class win, may go farther, but best G1 is 3rd; best mile 137.90 closing 11-5-5 to the stretch call
2 - P - 4 time grade 1 winner; most races between 1.5 and 2+ miles; last two cycles prepped twice, then won a grade 1; best results on European good turf courses; never raced on dirt is only ??; looks like a presser but can't get a time comparison. On my ticket on class, APV and relative performance vs field
3 - S - G2 placed - 138.6 - 4-4-4
4 - S - G2 two time winner - 136.2 - 8-7-7; no dirt races
5 - SP - G1 at 2; OC 40 winner this year; appears to be big jump in class; 137 mile on poly; latest ran 2-3-3 in mile and 4-4-4 at 8.5f
6 - p or SP - G 2 winner in last 132 days ago - 140.4 probable mid pack runner but no definitive move info available;
7 - P - G3 placed but 3rd best class horse; 136.8 and runs 4-2-1
8 - S - 3rd in OC 40 race at 10F onturf; best races on turf; ran poorly in Marathon 2 yrs ago; best win NW2x - 5-2-2, but horse is only a claimer
9 - P (probably) - G2 placed - off 161 days 136.8 2nd back; no position info;
10- P - G3 win two yrs ago, won Marathon 2 hrs ago, since only allowance win; 137.8 - 7-4-2
11- EP - G3 win @ Hastings; great times on that bull ring two in a row; 136.4 and probably on lead 1-1-1 2 back (Note: 2nd best mile time from a 3 turn mile track!!)
12- P - G3 in early 2011; claimed twice at Hollywood; won at FPX 100K - 137.6 ran 2-2-1
13- E (maybe) from comments; no dirt races; G3 last year probably on lead and fading; lost big to Fame and Glory only recent apparent meeting; no mile times available
14- P - Two G2 wins last year, no wins this year recent on dirt at Fresno and FPX - 138.4 runs 3-4-3 or 4-4-4 ugh!

Best mile is from 8 at 135.5 running 5-2-2 - just too cheap for me - OUT
then #4 at 136.2, no dirt, running 8-7-7, out for win
then 11 at 136.4, running 1-1-1 (might be gest time since its from 3 turn track)
then 7 at 136.8, running 4-2-1
then 9, 136.8 but off 161 days
then 12 137.6, running 2-2-1

My two picks are the 7 and 11, but the 2 might be the most accomplished runner in the field, except for the no dirt angle.

Good luck to you all

If this year's Marathon was on synthetics, I'd move up Fame and Glory's chances, but I can't envision him doing anything good on the sandy dragstrip. Same notion goes for Sense of Purpose. The two South American horses, Calidoscopio and Almudena, are intriguing entries as they are both proven on dirt, BUT trying to win this race off a huge lay-off. None of the previous winners have won it off of a long lay-off.

I'll stick with 7, 11, 12, and 1.

results
 

Chart

Was that really the slowest mile time that won? In the other Marathon the fastest miler won just as predicted and paid $20.

Well it appears so, especially if you use races where the winner finished int he top 3. One of the problems using racing form info is that foreign races provide so little positioning info prior to the finish.

If you look at Calidoscopio's 2nd back, a mile and a quarter race in a very fast 201.6, that final time would equate to 136, adding lengths lost equals a 137. Races notes say raced in mid pack, but field was 14 strong, so mid pack might be anything from 3rd or 4th to 7th or 8th. There was simply no info to indicate lengths gained, etc., so what do you do. A 137 would tie for 4th best in my analysis, but I would guess that the positions gained or lost and lengths gained or lost, if known, would not make me want to consider this horse.

The place horse had not raced on dirt, but did have the best extracted mile time of 136.2 from a race where it ran 8-7-7 and finished 4th. hard to pick a horse without dirt experience. The Euros without dirt experience finished last and next to last.