Following the Derby Prep races using Sartin tools only
 

I wanted to start a thread with the focus on which horses deserve following towards being a true contender for this year Derby, using on Sartin's program for analysis and discussion-no dosage talk or speed figures,just discussion on sustained energy rank and running styles of contenders for evaluatations. I wanted to post this topic undetermined Richie P thread on previous runnings, but I didn't locate the thread as some new poster did a while back..

My current list so far;

Creative Cause off the Norfolk

Out of Bounds off the mile Sham..

Keep a close eye on Hansen through out the preps...its been a while since we've had a wire to wire in the derby...could be this year

Well, I'm following the Derby Prep as discussed in Brohamer's text, with the Quirin pace and speed figures which function like total energy, in a way.

So far, the best horses have been:

-Liaison in December's Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Park. Maybe Brother Francis could be considered from this race as well, but I think he's been raced too much. He was raced about 3 weeks before the Cash Call Futurity in the Prevue and finished 2nd.

-Out of Bounds and Secret Circle from the Sham

-Algorithms and Hansen from yesterday's Holy Bull. Geeze, that Algorithms could have pressed such a fast pace probably bodes well for the Derby.

I didn't think that the pace would be that fast in the Holy Bull...if Hansen would have had a clean break without stumbling he still wouldn't have beat Algorithms....BUT still a
long way to the Derby and a lot more horses to look at...still keep an eye on Hansen

This is with regards to an upcoming race, but it will be interesting to see how Fly Lexis Fly, a horse raced in Peru, will fares as it tries to take on other Derby hopefuls.

Drysdale will be training him and will try and point him towards the Santa Anita Derby. As a two year old, Fly Lexis Fly has already run a 1 1/2 mile race, and won.

Is this the year the Sheik breaks thru, not likely. Or for that matter a foriegn bred horse? Too early for me to choose a horse yet.

patrick

I've never put too much stock or should I say emphasis on what happened in the preps because I don't want to oversell myself. How many times has a horse been pointed to the Derby and then disaster strikes and the horse is out. Then we have Churchill Downs, sure it's the first time that these 3 yr olds have gone a mile and a quarter yet many well meant horses haven't done well over the surface and it's not just the Derby it's happened in the Breeders Cup races. This first Saturday in May the cream rises to the top, let your gut through the past form and workouts over the surface tell you who should win. Good luck to all this first Saturday in May.

Today, they ran the Withers at Aqueduct and the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. Alpha won again in workman fashion, but so far,his energy style and race fractions are not impressive. He is the East coast hype for now.... Big upset in the West Coast, as I'll Have Another ran off with the R.B. Lewis Stakes with a huge effort off the layoff.. This horse might have ran too big, too early....so far an early West Coast contender but his energy exertions seem too early so far....might be another Music Merci or Consolidator??? We move onward to the next prep races....

At least, he finally relented and they are following the traditional way to train towards the Derby by racing in the prep races here in the U.S. versus training and running in the Dubai Derby over in Dubai. Out of Bounds is the real McCoy...Great energy exertions that fits with previous Derby winners even though the Sham stakes was at a flat mile. Doc Sartin did commented in the follow up that only Ferdinand qualify off the San Rafael Stakes at a mile distance...I might have to put Sea Hero in the same sentence off his blistering win in the Champagne Stakes from his two year old racing season as his 3 year old races were mediocre...

Yea...I was at Churchill Downs when Sea Hero won the derby....I was in total shock