Patten Match; 2Jan9Aqu; that's today
 

Pattern match: a horse is repeating a pattern that led to his last victory.

I find that a Pattern match often trumps all other considerations! The elegance of the match is that it's overlooked by the uniniated and by many handicappers as well. Now pattern match horses don't always win; but then what does? When they do however, it's often at double digit odds.

I find them by perusing the the form and paying particular attention to the circumstances of the horses last win. It's frosting on the cake when that win came in at double digits. Well there's just such a steed running in Aqueduct's 9th race wearing that profile. His last line is sufficiently ugly to put most people off, it's identical to line that preceeded his last win (and yes, he is an infrequent winner; this alone is worth a couple of ticks in the odds)

I believe you can find him if you're interested. He's 2nd off a lay-off, same as before; he flashed speed for 6 furlongs, same as before; he paid off at 21-1 in that win and today he's 30-1 in the morning line, not quite same as before, but close enough. And finally, he's returning to a venue where he's had success

This concept, though simple in its tenets, is not well understood and not part of the handicapping lore, and there in lies it's value.

Regards,
Chris

Hi Chris,

Problem is...he hasn't run a race fast enough in the last two years to win this. So, unless you're expecting a major improvement for some reason on a six year old gelding I don't see how he can reach the winner's circle.

And I don't see the pattern the same way you do. In his layoff prior to the last one he was off for almost three months and ran quite well on a turf sprint at Belmont. His subsequent race was even better.

To me that last race was a poor effort at a mile on the dirt after 70 days off.

We're obviously looking at different patterns.

I'll put my head on the chopping block and go with a different long shot. My hint: he's one of the two 10-1 morning line horses. As a four year old he ran a top three races ago, but didn't react negatively to it, running well the next race. His last race was not as good, but wasn't horrible. And that's a pattern I like (not a perfect pattern, but certainly good enough at those odds).

Please don't take any of this the wrong way. I'm thinking of it as an intellectual handicapping discussion and I hope you take it that way. I may sound brash, but I don't mean it.

Now let's hope one of us brings a bomb home!

:>)

No offense taken
 

You may very well be correct.

A horse offered at 30-1 has a lot of holes in his socks, no argument there.
Though when I use a pattern match horse (Sigh You) longs odds ease me over the nagging doubt that I may be throwing my money away.

Regards,
Chris

I agree. The bigger the odds the more allowance I'll make.

I've come up with 9-2-3 in this race, the latter two should go off at 10/1 or more.

But I have to admit that the 9 looks very good in here.