Quirin Form Failure Factor Survey
 

Finally got around to doing a 100 race survey on this factor. The tracks were PARX,DEL,MTH,& TDN. Here is how he described a failure in his book Winning At Races[Chap 10]. I count a good race as finishing in the money or beating half the field[ finishing within 3&3/4 lengths in sprints from 5f to 6,5f, within 4&3/4 lengths @7f. & within 5&3/4 in a route
Quirin Form Failure Example
Here is 1 of the example he gives using the horses last 4 lines.
DIST CLASS FIN
6.0 13000 4TH 4
8.5 13000 8TH 12
6.5 16000 5TH 7
6.O 10000 2ND 1
Last good race was line 4. If entered in a sprint above 10k then ignore line 2. If entered in a sprint for 10k or less then the sprint for 13k is forgiven but if entered for 13k then line 1 is a failure ie failed to accomplish what has to do today. If entered in a 16k sprint then both line 1 &3 are failures. If entered in a 10k route no failures, if entered in 13k rt the last 2 are failures, if in a 16k route then the last 3 are failures.
There are exceptions
1 last race comes after 31+ day l/o
2 last race came before a 31day+l/o
3 Any race with valid ex ie blocked, bumped, forced wide, poor start
4 Female against males
5 3 yr old against older
6 different surface ie dirt/turf and horse has never run a good race on turf or turf to dirt & no good dirt races.
Now the survey results
Horses Wins Win%
100 7 7
These results did surprise me since I didn't expect such a low win %. Based on this survey this factor is an even stronger elimination factor then Scotts'
factors. I'm starting another survey today to confirm the results of this survey .Stay tuned for results.
Tim

This has always been a go to for me and have used it for years. I find it much simple than Scotts which has too many rules and exceptions.

Then again this requires some work which always trumps instant gratification.

Good hunting,

Mitch44

Thanks Mitch. True that Quirins' approach is easier but both are useful tools.
Tim

Just finished the 2nd 100 horse survey Here are the results
Horses Winners
100 7
So folks out of 200 horses with form defects only 14 won or only 7%. I suggest you review the above definitions and employ this approach.
Tim

Thanks
 

Thanks for your work and sharing.

Mark

You are welcome Mark. Anytime you can toss a horse and be right over 90& of the time is one of heck of a tool.
Tim

Quirin Form Defects
 

Thanks for the work on the Quirin Form Defects. Just read the threads today. Appreciate your effort in researching and sharing.

You are welcome Moffett. As I have stated many times I had folks who took the time to get me on the right track and I firmly believe that Doc would have wanted those of us that reached some level of success to share it with the group.
Tim

thanks Lt1







thanks Lt1

You are welcome ignacio.
Tim