Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up (
-   Breeders' Cup 2014 - Saturday Nov 1 (
-   -   Race 12- BC Classic Race 2014 (

lone speed 11-01-2014 01:41 AM

Race 12- BC Classic Race 2014
$5 Million Race at a mile and a quarter on real dirt at Santa Anita race track.

Okay, trying to make amends for last year's Classic race when the three year old colt Will Take Charge got nosed out by Mucho Macho Man, who got a dream trip by Gary Stevens. Fantastic ride! old man:cool:

At first glance over the past performances, I noticed that there are a lot of closers in this year's edition and that many had faced sub-par early pace fractions for previous prep races leading to the Breeder's Cup Classic. In this full field of fourteen contenders, we do have Moreno who is a true front runner but this one was aimed for the Whitney Stakes in the first week of August. Whether this one has enough gas in the tank after a long campaign this year remains to be seen in this match-up.

In my two cents opinion, I narrowed this year's Classic Match-up to the leading three year-old colts: Shared Belief the Pacific Classic winner and morning line favorite; California Chrome- this year's Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner and the Pennsylvania Derby winner Bayern.

Shared Belief is coming up to this race beautifully, one sprint race ,and three route races with one at Del Mar's synthetic dirt and one important prep race over the Santa Anita dirt course in its last race. In California Chrome, I believe that Art Sherman wished he had gotten one more route prep race into California Chrome.

Bayern's last race early pace fractions stands out for my own analysis as Bayern went 47.8 and 110.8 for the early pace fractions. Bayern burned the second fraction in 23.0 seconds flat!!!! This is a huge (and hidden move! ) turn of foot especially when one preps for a longer race like a mile and a quarter.

So the key factor in this matchup is whether Bayern can get a mile and a quarter with his early speed to get position with Moreno drawn inside on his flank and have enough in the tank to withstand the late moves by Shared Belief and California Chrome. Should be a great tactical race.

Good skills

Ted Craven 11-01-2014 10:51 AM

Thanks for the analysis! I think just watching the contest for the first 6 furlongs between Bayern and Moreno will be worth the price of admission! Gives me chills even now, trying to visualize it!


Mr.Pagine 11-01-2014 12:37 PM

BC Classic
I agree my P and C friends... with one question?

What the hell is Cigar Street doing in this race....Bill Mott is not a silly man, and he knows something. I have 3 - Bayern / California Chrome, and I think Cigar Street will be hit the board.

May all of your bets cash and Happy Punting!!

mrnickel 11-01-2014 08:23 PM

Good stuff
Got 7/13/12 to be near the top
Yes 12 :/ but gotta stick to it
11 and 15 bringing up the 4/5 spots

Been a heck of a day of racing!

Ted Craven 11-01-2014 09:19 PM

Congratulations to Mr Pagine and Mr Nickel!

The race would have been different if Moreno had not been squeezed at the start and been able to get his position and soften up Bayern: only a neck between the top 3 finishers ...!


shoeless 11-01-2014 10:10 PM

Highway robbery Bayern should have been DQ'D took Shared Belief
right out of the race

atkinsrr 11-01-2014 11:16 PM

glad we wasn't DQ'd ....Had Bayern and Tonalist both bet to win....but now the sad news..late pick 4 9th I have the $14.40 10th I have the $40.20..someone told me that an Illinois bred horse couldn't win the sprint. (ha) 11th $60.00 horse beats me out of the pic 4
12th I had Bayern $14.20....the .50 cent pic 4 paid over $18,000...I will be sick over that one for a while....Doc Sartin used to tell us when foreign horses are in there pass the race or use them all...well I only used 3 of them....learned a lesson today

mrnickel 11-02-2014 12:13 AM

That 9 killed my exotic
2 was never in my sites
Bayerns move definitely changed the dynamics of the race.
Even for the day.

mowens33 11-02-2014 07:33 AM

Had a live late pick 4 ticket with 2 Cigar Street, he faded badly but it was exciting to have a chance at 40 grand with a 12/1 short. Talk about making your year!
Well that’s racing!!

Bill V. 11-02-2014 09:52 AM

Doc must be smiling on me and us here at P-C

Bayern had the highest adjusted speed rating last 3 comparable and last line
104 ( val 4)
AND is the winner of the major prep race . Pennsylvania derby.

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