FTL Paceline selection ?
 

FTL

In order what are the 5 most important things you do
when you are picking pace lines

Jeff

Jeff, here is an excerpt from a PM that FTL sent me several months ago. This should shed light on your question. Good luck!

Nice to get back to where it all starts Basics 1,2,3
 

Thanks for the reminder of what and where we need too draw a line through
This is such a good remider of what we all need to do are read the conditions
or when the conditions are starting to get muddy and not clear
I would pass the race as I m not sure where to look for a winner when it starts to get unclear

Next Race

As Bill V would say onward and forward and good skill. :1a:

For those who maybe having problems with paceline selection may I suggest reading Follow Up 81 the publishers section where Doc explains the modern day Methodology approach. Also go to the video section and watch the Docs'1998 one on one video seminar consisting of 3 vids and a carefully explained step by step approach. It should answer most the questions you may have.
Tim

Another excellent source to check out are the Brohamer audio tapes. Tom provides his method of contender & paceline selections.
Tim

Shoeless,

Although Jeebs answered your question directed to me, for me, let me offer this; go to this link http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdi...116&order=desc where you will find races I posted that start at the beginning and go to the end, including a rundown on each horse. As I recall, you will also find the PP’s for every horse in the race so you can look at them and follow along. You will probably need to go back to page 3 or 4 pages since it has been 3 or 4 years since I posted on a regular basis. Just find my posts and read through them. They are all done the same way so it should be easy for you to follow.

Now, I have a question for you.
I seem to recall that in a post I read somewhere, you use ENERGY.
There is more than one ENERGY program. Which one do you use? The one WITH BL/BL or the one WITHOUT?

Hi FTL

Thanks for the link

I am using the one without, pretty sure it is Energy V

I did not realize they had one with it

Jeff

When I load ENERGY, here is the first screen that comes up.
There is no BL/BL, no line score (LS) and no thoromation.
When I get a couple of minutes I'll put up a recent race for you.

Energy
 

FTL I am Looking forward to your race demo

Jeff is a very good user of Energy He sends me good reports
all the time,

Jeff and FTL There are many versions of energy floating around
Just because your main menu screen might look the same,
Jim Bradshaw was always tweaking the program adding new readouts or
changing the algorithms.
He also would make custom copies, That is why some people have energy
in a 3 call format where the entry screen looked like this


Attachment 44136

Most copies use the 4 call format

i have a version called EXDC. It has just about every thing Energy, Phase 1, Entropy ,Thromation and an odds line generator

Jim Bradshaw just kept adding readouts and combining programs if a client wanted it.

Energy and KGEN were awesome programs

Bill

FTL and Bill

I am using the 3 call version and the opening screen looks the same

FTL I as well would be interested to see how you go about using the
energy program if you wouldn't mind doing so.

Jeff

Here is a race from a couple of weeks ago. Richie P posted it when Bill V was traveling. Since Richie P posted the PP’s for all the horses I chose that race.
Naturally, the contenders and pacelines were chosen in the same way as I do in every race I have ever posted.
The #1 and #8 horses were scratched.
Here is a link to that race. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11273

the rest of the screen shots
 

The rest of the screen shots

a closer look at the winner
 

Here is a closer look at the winner, #7
I have drawn a black line through all the races that are not comparable due to either distance, surface and/or class. That left me with one usable line in the last 90 days, line 2. It is a "+" race. When you clear out all the non comparable races the horse doesn't look bad at all.

questions
 

If you have questions let me know.

Playing two horses I don't see how the winner could not have been one of them.

Hi FTL Thank you for your demo I have to laugh when I read your comment

"Playing two horses I don't see how the winner could not have been one of them."

Well, one way is to be distracted and trying to hand enter while nervously sitting in an airport waiting to fly home.

Thanks for posting the link to the race Richie posted for me on the 17th
I had to do the race with my little netbook computer cause I did not want
to pack and travel with my good laptop, The netbook has RDSS in it but it's so underpowered with no memory I can't use it, therefore I have to hand enter into old dos programs.

When I landed that night I was able to download again into one of my old laptops which I took to Saratoga from my dad's house,
Anyway

If you look at my readouts do you notice something?
Where is the winning horse :7:?
I simply forgot to type in its pace line :eek:

As you noted And I agree, Line 2 is the line to use. I excused line 1 for too being too high class. And also wacky Los Al

Attachment 44149


Let's see how Entropy handles the race with a line for horse 7 and no 1 or 8
since they were scratched

My lines

Attachment 44150

The Entropy sort screen

Attachment 44151

Entropy sort I will leave the top 4 ( low sort scores)
and make sure to include the #1 EP horse
so out goes horse 3 and 6

Now to thoromation

Attachment 44152

As what tends to happen Thoromation has a cluster for the second win position So I go to the stop action screens
The first stop action screen to come up indicates how the race is variegated Sustained
The SP screen comes up and the winner # 7 wins the race

Attachment 44153

FTL

First of all thanks very much for posting those screen shots

What I would like to ask is how would you determine what horses
to play from them.


Bill

Thanks for yours as well

I really learn quite a bit from both of you and very much appreciate
the help

Jeff

That is a good question, especially for anyone reading this that is not familiar with ENERGY.

However, before I answer the question there is something you can do for me. In post#9 of this thread, Bill V said the following;”Jeff is a very good user of Energy He sends me good reports
all the time,” So, on that basis I would like you to tell me how you would go about selecting the two horses to bet based on the readouts I posted. I think I’ll be able to better answer your question once I see how you would approach it.

FTL

Bill is very kind but as I do hit from time to time I am really
not that good with the program. Another thing I do is not trust
the readouts when a longshot appears on top.

I find that the sort screen gets the most winners for me so I
go to that which would have led me to the 3 and 5.I really don't
know how to correlate the other readouts with it.

I do change the variegate as it says in the manual if the top MUV
horse is not the energizer.

Jeff

Pacelines
 

Here is race 10 from Parx today 9/4/17 happy labor day


Horse 1 Edfitzatmahle 3.5/1 Sus Press 2 for 24 Line 2 is a + paceline at Parx
51 days ago. I excused line 1 Its only 5 furlongs and from Penn so I feel
line 2 is more comparable

Horse 2.Icona 15/1 1 for 8 Sustained 3 of last 4 races have been routes. It ran well
in line 4 at 1 mile at Santa Anita in an open 625 claimer
Its first two tries at parx have been dismal, so I will look elsewhere

Horse 3. Hot Spice Girl 5/2 2 for 20 Early Presser Line 2 and 3 are plus lines.
I will use line 3 since line 2 has is from an off track with a -34 dtv.

Horse 4. Dusty Street 5/1 2 for 32. Sustained line 1 s a plus paceline 16 days ago


Horse 5. Royal Stage 12/1 2 for 35 No form No usable lines has not run a plus race in its last
7 tries against the same class as today's race

Horse 6. Elle Va 15/1 2 for 18 Early Line 2 is a (+) lines 1 and 3 are from turf races
I will rate line 2 as this one looks to set the early pace

Horse 7 She's a Dandy Lion 15/1 2 for 9 Early Presser Been away for 112 days
line 1 is a (+) against this same class No works in the last 26 days

Horse 8 Pink Satin N Lace 6/1 2 for 13 Presser Line 1 is a plus paceline against today's class
level. Line 1 is the first race back after a 97 day lay off

Horse 9 Ribot Star 5/1 2 for 21 Sustained He made a big move in the 3rd fraction
in line 1, but he shows no recent plus races

I will go with the 8 and 3
Horse 1 and 4 rate well but have such poor records I might use them underneath the 3 and 8
Good Skill


Attachment 44166

Hi Bill happy labor day. My contenders are 3-1-9-4-8. As always price will determine the bets if any.
Tim

FTL

While working races I have noticed a good part of the time the winner
is in the top three on the sort, the problem for me is getting the right
two to play.

Jeff

Nice Call Bill V!

Ok, let me start with your comment about not trusting the program when there is a longshot “ON TOP”. In the version of ENERGY I have there is no BL/BL, LS (line score), VDC or any other number that would give any indication that the lowest or highest number in any group is the so called “best horse” or “ON TOP”….AND….bets are NOT based solely on odds. In other words, no waggercapping. That is not to say that odds do not play a part, they do. As an example, suppose you get your two horses and one is even money and the other is 2/1, obviously you have no bet. The race would be a pass.
You said that on the sort screen I posted you were led to the #3 and #5. The “sort screen” is always presented in the same way, by ranking of “EP”. This does NOT mean the program is telling you the top two horses are the best, because it is not saying that at all. As an example,. Those two horses are the “top two” in the sort, but since the sort is based on “EP” those two horses are the two best “EARLY” horses. If you look right above the column headings on the sort screen you will see the word “SUSTAINED”, which I circled in red. On the screen shot just above the sort screen you will see the “VARIEGATE” which says “SUSTAINED”, which I circled in red. These two things are telling you that the program has determined, based on the contenders and pacelines entered, that the winner of this race should run “SUSTAINED”. Obviously, the #3 horse can longer be considered. Therefore, the column on the sort screen you should be looking at is the column “SP” (sustained pace). Now, the top two rated “SP” horses are #5 and #4, however number 5 is also the #2 “EP” horse, so is the horse early or sustained? So at this point let’s consider the 3rd ranked “SP” horse, #7. SUSTAINED, to me means late, so let’s look at the column “LX” which is late energy. In that column the top two horses are #7 and #5. Now look at the last screen “EXDC MATCH UP”. On the right hand side is the “LATE EXDC”. On this screen shot you will see #7 is ranked best on “LATE EXDC”. Look at all the things I circled in red on that screen. There is no way to not have the #7 horse as one of your two horses to bet. By the way, even though it was the longest shot on the board!

The reason I always liked the version of the ENERGY program that I have is because I think it was the best attempt I have ever seen at actually handicapping a race! Of course, you better have only true contenders and good pacelines. Entering every horse in the race will only lead to disaster. Likewise, bad contenders and bad pacelines will also lead to disaster.

Now here are some of my personal opinions.
You say you don’t trust when your ENERGY program picks a longshot ON TOP. The first thing is, there is NOT an "ON TOP".
I joined this site 9 years ago and in all that time my view on contender and paceline selecting has not changed one bit. It has CONSISTENTLY been the same.
The majority of races that I have posted have been races OTHER PEOPLE have chosen, not me, just like this race. The point is, I didn’t want to be accused of cherry picking races so they fall into my way of thinking.
Change the VARIEGATE? I don’t have experience at doing that. Changing the variegate is changing the way the program looks at the race. Perhaps it is the contenders and/or pacelines that need to be changed.
I mentioned CONSISTENCY. Everyone has to choose a contender and paceline selection method and stick with it….for a long time. If you have a good method, you will get good results. If you choose a bad a method, you won’t.
From what I have observed, people have a contender and paceline selection method that changes with every race they look at. There is NO CONSISTENCY.
As you can see from the first screen shot I posted showing the first copyright date as 1987, 30 years later the program can still pick winners at good prices. And keep in mind, in those days the use of the original guidelines in the paceline manual were in use! ;) If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!! :)

P.S. - In your last post you said many times the winner is in the top 3 on your sort screen. That made me smile. Now that you understand that the sort screen is presented in order of EARLY horses, it is no surprise to me that many of your winners come from the top three in that category. :D

Shoe
 

Hi Jeff

FTL's demo is right on. The only thing he might not know is ( maybe he does?)
the sort is based on the Muv and 3 part varius readout

It is not actually sorted by EP as in Early Pace. Early EXDC which is what the bar graph A is showing is. Bar graph B or Paragon B is not Sustained as in SP
Late EXDC is if the race favors other than normal as in late biased

In FTL's example, Energy has called the race variegated Sustained
Therefore the Paragon B bar graphs are preferred for win bets

FTL brings up another point This program is 30+ years old,
At the time this program was "the" program of the methodology,
The emphasis was on winning 66% of your bets from your top 2 selections
Win Percentage was the goal not so much ROI,

You do send me many good reports But you also are an exacta bettor
It was not until Doc's next program KGEN , and then Entropy, that getting the place horse for exacta's was added to the algorithms.

For Exactas with your copy of Energy I suggest you use the "other"
paragon or better yet the 3 0.00 horses on the varius.


Here is how doing exactly what FTL did in his race will get you the winner of race 10 from parx yesterday, which I posted early in the day a few post back .

Here are my lines

Attachment 44174


The race is variegated Early So my top two on Paragon A shows the 1 3 and 4

Attachment 44175

But you say you will change the variegate based on the o.oo MUV horse
or the energizer ( same thing)
Let's do that, can the 1 go wire to wire? I say no based on its line score and it's paceline so yes you could change the variegate.

Attachment 44176

Now the variegated is sustained
and who are the top two on the B Paragon
3 and 4

I think if you follow the Paragons A or B determined by the variegate
your win percentage will go way up
If you use the 3 0.00 horses on the Varius you will catch some nice exactas

It did not work for me here because the 8 placed
(I had it to win along with the 3 )

Good Skill
Bill

Thanks
 

Thank you The 3 won but paid 2/1 I was hoping for the 8 but I will take the win

Bill

FTL and Bill,

Thanks you both for taking the time to help me, I very much appreciate
it.


FTL , you really made some great points and it has helped me understand
the program better, I am using the same program you are.

I went back on a race I did yesterday and sort had the winner 3rd but
when I looked at the early and late exdc it was ranked 2nd and I missed
a 13.00 winner.

Your dead on to about being consistent in your work.


Bill, Your right about playing exactas have not been doing well with them and thanks
for the example.

Im sure I will have more questions

Jeff

Why is the late match up exdc different from late exdc, the top 3 horses
are 3,5,7but when you look above at late exdc comes up 7,5,4.

The first thing is to not be confused. As an example, I told you the horses on the sort screen were ordered by EP (rank). Bill corrected that by saying they were really ordered by MUV. Ok,I say 'to-MAY-toe', Bill says 'to-MAH-toe'. The screen comes up in order of EP rank or in order of MUV. It all comes down to the same thing with one exception. You can change the MUV, but that doesn't change the EP rank. Look at the race Bill posted and look at his original sort screen. Then go to the sort screen where he changed the variegate. He now has two horses with a 0.00 MUV, but the EP rank has not changed. I just find it easier and less confusing by simply using the EP rank.

As far as the $13 winner you missed is concerned, perhaps there is a reason for missing it and perrhaps there isn't. Without seeing the screen shots I can't tell.

One thing I cannot over emphasize is, you cannot look at the sort screen like that is the order that the program is indicating the best horse is at the top and the worst horse is at the bottom. THAT IS NOT HOW IT WORKS! Just as an example, perhaps the horse in your race, that was 3rd on the sort screen, was actually THE BEST HORSE. I have no way of knowing.

I'm sorry, but you have got to get the idea of "TOP HORSES" out of you head. That is only going to mess you up.
I will say again, the sort screen is based on EP rank, nothing more and nothing less. If you are more comfortable with Bill's view, then look at the sort screen as nothing more than the horses being sorted on MUV. IT IS NOT THE PROGRAMS CHOICE OF HORSES TO BET. The ONLY exception is where the program determines the race will run EARLY. THEN and ONLY THEN is the program telling you the first two horses in the sort are the horses to play. Why? Because the program determined the race will run EARLY and the first two horses in the sort are the two EARLY horses.

Now to your question about the race where I posted screen shots.
You asked, "Why is the late match up exdc different from late exdc, the top 3 horses
are 3,5,7but when you look above at late exdc comes up 7,5,4.”
FIRST, the “TOP 3 HORSES” are nothing more than the very same top 3 horses found on the sort screen. You will also notice the bottom 2 horses are the very same bottom 2 horses on the sort screen and in the very same order. You’ll also notice the horses are in the very same order on the left side of the screen as they are on the right side of the screen and in the very same order as they are on the sort screen.

Now, since we are looking for “LATE” energy, then we are looking at the right side of the screen, not the left side which is “EARLY” energy.
You will also notice the column headings “1st 2nd 3rd”. This is equivalent to 1st,2nd and 3rd fractions.
Notice the number next to the #7 horse under “3rd”. It is “0.00” that means this horse has the best 3rd fraction. Since we are looking for “LATE” energy, the #7 is the best horse and therefore shows above as the first horse in the graph.
Now just so you get a better understanding, the #5 is the second horse in the above graph. Why? Go back and look at the numbers under the column heading “3rd”. The second lowest number is 1.22 next to the #5 horse.
Now look at the third lowest number under the column heading “3rd”. You will see the number 1.88 and that number is next to the #4 horse who is the third horse on the above graph.

So the best horse in this race is the third horse on the sort screen.

I hope all or any of this has helped you.

Thanks FTL
 

Ironically after all these years growing up loving Italian food, I think I have
developed an allergy to tomatoes :mad:

Hi Jeff

You should check this out with some races you have run with energy

First, off The sort screen is listed by the EP rankings
The horses listed from top to bottom are listed by the EP rank
Doc and Jim could have listed the contenders by any of the 6 components
of the line score including the MUV It makes sense to list by EP since
The match up is who s going to the lead? and then who can or can't catch it?


RDSS users can change how the race is sorted
but we can't in Energy

Here is an example



Here is a DMR race sorted by the RX rating

Attachment 44180

Here is the same race sorted by Total Energy

Attachment 44181

The way the race is listed is not to be confused with who is the top ranked

Next post I will show how the program is rating the this race

Bill

blue prints
 

Hi Jeff

How you see the sort is not actually best top to bottom
Your contenders will be listed top to bottom based on the EP ranking

The energy program you and FTL are using does not tally up the line score
of the 6 components EP PR HE SP LX FX
If you were to add these 6 factors ranking together, The 3 lowest total score horses are your Paragon A horses More weight is given to the EP and MUV
ratings, This is why in this example the :5: is ranked first over the :7:
even though the :7: has an advantage 12 to 13.

Attachment 44182


Paragon B is to be used as the "other" look or when the Variegate
says Presser or Sustained

Paragon B is the 3 best SP and LX factor rated horses

Attachment 44183

Now to the Early and Late EXDC Match Up bar graphs

The Early EXDC Match Up Bar graph shows the 3 lowest total of your contenders
first two fractions added together.


The Late EXDC Match Up bar graphs show the top 3 (low is best)
totals of the 2nd and 3rd fractions weighted by the 3rd fraction
this is why the 12 is rated better than the 5
The race is weighted Other than early The 5 drops off quickly in the 3rd fraction even though its total score is lower than the 12
Energy rates the 12 better.


For Exacta bettors, Doc's instructions are to box the 3 0.00 exdc horses
There are no 0.00 horses in this race on the Early EXDC side but
There is on the late EXDC Match up They are 3 7 and 2 No
trifecta for this race. The 2 did not fire

Attachment 44184


Result was 3 7 12

FTL

Thanks yes what you wrote helped

Bill

Thanks for the examples on the program

FTL

I was thinking about what you said about the top horse being in
the sort.

I was using Energy like Synergism 2 where you would pick FW,
EP and SP and the sort changed accordingly

FTL

This I feel is the one of the most important questions to ask but
not sure if you have answer for it

How do you decide if to pass or play a race?


Bill feel free to comment as well

Hey Jeff,

Look for negatives on favorites to play against? (FWIW favorites in North America are winning at 38% clip in 2017. 2nd and 3rd choices paying less and less in most cases also.)

Look for "extra stuff" on your price contenders like some of Pino's patterns etc?

Keep a track profile if you are focusing on 1 or 2 tracks and look for an edge there?

I hope you are doing great Jeff, all the best!
Richie

feel
 

Hi Jeff

"It all depends on how I feel "

There are many reasons why I would pass a race.
The thing is one day I will pass a race, and on another day play it, Even if all the things that made me decide to pass were present in both races,

You will get many excellent replies, to this kind of question
Everybody is different, I may be much more emotional than most,
So just because I think something does not make it something you should feel.
On any given day I could be in a number of physical and emotional states that affect my decisions. I used to have to base my pass or play decisions based on my financial situation. But today I am much more solvent,
When all I had was a $20 voucher and I needed gas money to get home and enough money for admission the next day, I was more apt to pass races,
Today money is not such a burden on my decision-making process.
But I am human. Some days I feel invincible, others I feel like I just want some fun activity, other days I'm too tired and just don't want to think too much,

If I feel I can win I will make something out of just about any race I look at.
I might play win only, win-place, win place show, Just show, I might look to play an exacta, I probably will choose at least 2 horses from the race and plays doubles or a pick 2 or pick 4
Or I might just say I will pass,

We all are who we are, I am a believer in what Howard Sartin observed
That winning is a mindset If I approach a race with the mindset of a winner
I will play the race, somehow, Just about any race where all the horses have at least 3 pacelines and there are no more than 2 horses with too many unknowns but who have decent morning line odds, I will probably make some kind of wagering decision involving the race.

Good Skill
Bill

funny
 

hey Jeff
One more point, Often when I am in social situations at the racetrack
I find it often happens that, I will look at a race and decide to pass, The people I am with generally
expect me to win every race, I have looked at the race and I decide to pass,
But my acquaintances are looking for me for my expert opinions :rolleyes:
I then will have to do the race.
I just go into a relaxed almost unconscious "in the zone" mindset and
just use my skills and throw out my top 3 BLBL or VDC or TPR horses,

This relaxed "in the zone" ability almost always earns those around me a nice win and or exacta, In a race, I "felt" was a race I wanted to pass I can't explain it or why this happens but It has happened for many years.
I then have to make some kind of small bet on those numbers, I can''t give people numbers and not bet the numbers myself. That to me is wrong to have people bet something I would not bet myself.

Theis happened at Saratoga and at Monmouth when I was back east My two best wins were from races I only handicapped because I was asked
"who do you like ?"

Richie,

Thanks for the reply and all the best to you and your family, from your pictures at the SPA
you really look happy and I am glad to see it


Bill

Thanks as well and happy you were able to be at Monmouth with the family

There is more than one reason to pass a race.

You find a race where there are no “unknown factors”. You are able to get good pacelines for several horses in the race. Those horses with no lines, because they have no form, are eliminated as non-contenders. You enter your contenders into your program and get your two horses to bet. If the odds on one or both of your horses is too low….PASS THE RACE. What are odds that are “too low”?
There is the obvious, such as your two horses are 4/5 and 2/1. Beyond that, it is up to each individual to set their own minimums.

If I remember correctly, Doc’s advice was, if you encounter a race with two or more “unknown factors”...PASS THE RACE. What is an “unknown factor”? Here are some examples.
A maiden race where there are two or more first time starters.
A race being run on the turf and there are two or more horses with no turf lines.
A race being run on the dirt and there are two or more horses with no dirt lines.
A race at a sprint distance and there are two or more horses with no sprint lines.
A race at a route distance and there are two or more horses with no route lines.

These are some examples for you to begin with. My best advice is to pay attention to the races you handicap. Draw some conclusions of your own on every race you either play or pass. After the race, evaluate your thoughts prior to the race to those after the race. Ask yourself, “did I make the right decision?” Don’t reach any final conclusions until you have done many, many races. You can’t let “this race” dictate what you are going to do in the “next race”. You will need many, many decisions to base your conclusions on.

FTL thanks very much for the reply

Shoeless, a comment about #1 on your list of 5 important things on P/L selection.
this year I have handicapped 250 races which are mostly stakes and high optional claimers. out of those 250 47 horses with layoffs of 80 days or more have ran. I use 80 instead of 90. out of that 47 there have been 19 winners and 28 losers for a win % of 40.4. Also about 80% of my races are on the turf.....thought this might be of interest......Randy A.