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-   -   Monkey strikes the board. (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11972)

Mitch44 12-01-2018 06:21 PM

Monkey strikes the board.
 
After spending a few days in the Hosp' for a procedure I warmed up the Monkey today. He didn't know how to act with a couple days off. Off to a slow start but sticking to game plan he finally connected in the 8th at GP today for a $ 246.40 EX. X 3

Taking it easy and playing only 1 track I thought the Clm. Crown races would present some big prices.

The challenge of the 8th race was it had 6 horses stretching out to a route: 1,2,3,11,12 & 14. Thanks to the tools within RDSS I narrowed these down to the 2 & the 14. I primarily used % Med to evaluate these horses along with their % M running styles and settled on the 2 & 14. I thought the 3 was a NTL. He led till late stretch and when passed spit the bit or had it by that time.

I also threw the 10 in my play because he was proven at routes and his last was on dirt which he won, which begs the ? of where the top on this horse. He has won 3 of 6 on dirt , a improving 3 yr. old. The 4 was high in Profit & Prime. The 6 had a new trainer whose stats were less than previous trainer and poor with new horses.



<table class="toteboard" id="rbOutput"><tbody class="ng-scope" id="rbRows" ng-controller="rtbController"><tr id="e324a-842ac" ng-repeat="wager in wagers"><td class="alignL">COMPLETED: <!-- end ngIf: !wager.isFailed --> <!-- ngIf: !(wager.isConditional && wager.status == 'OPEN') --> e324a-842ac<!-- end ngIf: !(wager.isConditional && wager.status == 'OPEN') --> <!-- ngIf: wager.isCancellable --> </td><td><!-- ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> GP
<!-- end ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.resultsAvailable --> </td><td><!-- ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> #8
<!-- end ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.resultsAvailable --> </td><td class="ng-binding"><!-- ngIf: wager.isLeaderBoard -->$6 Exacta</td><td class="ng-binding">2, 10, WT, 4, 14</td><td class="alignL faded">none <!-- ngIf: wager.isConditional && wager.isLeaderBoard --> </td><td class="amount bet ng-binding"> $24.00</td><td class="amount return"><!-- ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable && (wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9) --> $739.20
<!-- end ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable && (wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9) --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.payoutsAvailable || (wager.frozenWager == 'true' && CSSDLength != 9) --> </td><td class="amount wonlost" ng-show="wager.conditionalWager == 'true' || wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9"><!-- ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable -->+ $715.20
<!-- end ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.payoutsAvailable --> </td><td class="amount wonlost ng-hide" ng-show="wager.frozenWager == 'true' && CSSDLength != 9">Claim Winnings
<button class="ssn-collection-click-element" ng-click="showSSNCollectionWidget();" ng-disabled="ssnCollecting">Claim Winnings</button>
</td></tr><!-- end ngRepeat: wager in wagers --><tr id="80c8d-56e9a" ng-repeat="wager in wagers"> <td class="alignL"><!-- ngIf: wager.isFailed --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.isFailed --> COMPLETED: <!-- end ngIf: !wager.isFailed --> <!-- ngIf: !(wager.isConditional && wager.status == 'OPEN') --> 80c8d-56e9a<!-- end ngIf: !(wager.isConditional && wager.status == 'OPEN') --> <!-- ngIf: wager.isCancellable --> </td><td><!-- ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> GP
<!-- end ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.resultsAvailable --> </td><td><!-- ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> #8
<!-- end ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.resultsAvailable --> </td><td class="ng-binding"><!-- ngIf: wager.isLeaderBoard -->$4 Exacta</td><td class="ng-binding">8, 12, WT, 4, 14</td><td class="alignL faded">none <!-- ngIf: wager.isConditional && wager.isLeaderBoard --> </td><td class="amount bet ng-binding"> $16.00</td><td class="amount return"><!-- ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable && (wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9) --> $0.00
<!-- end ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable && (wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9) --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.payoutsAvailable || (wager.frozenWager == 'true' && CSSDLength != 9) --> </td><td class="amount wonlost" ng-show="wager.conditionalWager == 'true' || wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9"><!-- ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable -->- $16.00
<!-- end ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.payoutsAvailable --> </td><td class="amount wonlost ng-hide" ng-show="wager.frozenWager == 'true' && CSSDLength != 9">Claim Winnings
<button class="ssn-collection-click-element" ng-click="showSSNCollectionWidget();" ng-disabled="ssnCollecting">Claim Winnings</button>
</td></tr><!-- end ngRepeat: wager in wagers --><tr id="2a9b8-b1c87" ng-repeat="wager in wagers"> <td class="alignL"><!-- ngIf: wager.isFailed --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.isFailed --> COMPLETED: <!-- end ngIf: !wager.isFailed --> <!-- ngIf: !(wager.isConditional && wager.status == 'OPEN') --> 2a9b8-b1c87<!-- end ngIf: !(wager.isConditional && wager.status == 'OPEN') --> <!-- ngIf: wager.isCancellable --> </td><td><!-- ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> GP
<!-- end ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.resultsAvailable --> </td><td><!-- ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> #8
<!-- end ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.resultsAvailable --> </td><td class="ng-binding"><!-- ngIf: wager.isLeaderBoard -->$1 Exacta</td><td class="ng-binding">4, WT, 2, 8, 10, 12</td><td class="alignL faded">none <!-- ngIf: wager.isConditional && wager.isLeaderBoard --> </td><td class="amount bet ng-binding"> $4.00</td><td class="amount return"><!-- ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable && (wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9) --> $0.00
<!-- end ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable && (wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9) --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.payoutsAvailable || (wager.frozenWager == 'true' && CSSDLength != 9) --> </td><td class="amount wonlost" ng-show="wager.conditionalWager == 'true' || wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9"><!-- ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable -->- $4.00
<!-- end ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.payoutsAvailable --> </td><td class="amount wonlost ng-hide" ng-show="wager.frozenWager == 'true' && CSSDLength != 9">Claim Winnings
<button class="ssn-collection-click-element" ng-click="showSSNCollectionWidget();" ng-disabled="ssnCollecting">Claim Winnings</button>
</td></tr><!-- end ngRepeat: wager in wagers --><tr id="9bbb8-80676" ng-repeat="wager in wagers"> <td class="alignL"><!-- ngIf: wager.isFailed --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.isFailed --> COMPLETED: <!-- end ngIf: !wager.isFailed --> <!-- ngIf: !(wager.isConditional && wager.status == 'OPEN') --> 9bbb8-80676<!-- end ngIf: !(wager.isConditional && wager.status == 'OPEN') --> <!-- ngIf: wager.isCancellable --> </td><td><!-- ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> GP
<!-- end ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.resultsAvailable --> </td><td><!-- ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> #8
<!-- end ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.resultsAvailable --> </td><td class="ng-binding"><!-- ngIf: wager.isLeaderBoard -->$3 Exacta</td><td class="ng-binding">14, WT, 2, 8, 10, 12</td><td class="alignL faded">none <!-- ngIf: wager.isConditional && wager.isLeaderBoard --> </td><td class="amount bet ng-binding"> $12.00</td><td class="amount return"><!-- ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable && (wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9) --> $0.00
<!-- end ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable && (wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9) --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.payoutsAvailable || (wager.frozenWager == 'true' && CSSDLength != 9) --> </td><td class="amount wonlost" ng-show="wager.conditionalWager == 'true' || wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9"><!-- ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable -->- $12.00
</td></tr></tbody></table>

Mitch44

RichieP 12-01-2018 07:11 PM

Mitch that is awesome man! Tremendous score, your Monkey should be Bronzed along with you!!

Hey I hope all went well with your procedure, Karen and I send our prayers and best vibes to you:)

Stay coo
Richie

Lt1 12-01-2018 07:49 PM

Boy oh boy that monkey sure knows how to make big bucks. Nice job big guy. Glad to hear that all went well with your procedure.
Tim

Bill V. 12-01-2018 08:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mitch44 (Post 118549)
After spending a few days in the Hosp' for a procedure I warmed up the Monkey today. He didn't know how to act with a couple days off. Off to a slow start but sticking to game plan he finally connected in the 8th at GP today for a $ 246.40 EX. X 3

Taking it easy and playing only 1 track I thought the Clm. Crown races would present some big prices.

The challenge of the 8th race was it had 6 horses stretching out to a route: 1,2,3,11,12 & 14. Thanks to the tools within RDSS I narrowed these down to the 2 & the 14. I primarily used % Med to evaluate these horses along with their % M running styles and settled on the 2 & 14. I thought the 3 was a NTL. He led till late stretch and when passed spit the bit or had it by that time.

I also threw the 10 in my play because he was proven at routes and his last was on dirt which he won, which begs the ? of where the top on this horse. He has won 3 of 6 on dirt , a improving 3 yr. old. The 4 was high in Profit & Prime. The 6 had a new trainer whose stats were less than previous trainer and poor with new horses.



<table class="toteboard" id="rbOutput"><tbody class="ng-scope" id="rbRows" ng-controller="rtbController"><tr id="e324a-842ac" ng-repeat="wager in wagers"><td class="alignL">COMPLETED: <!-- end ngIf: !wager.isFailed --> <!-- ngIf: !(wager.isConditional && wager.status == 'OPEN') --> e324a-842ac<!-- end ngIf: !(wager.isConditional && wager.status == 'OPEN') --> <!-- ngIf: wager.isCancellable --> </td><td><!-- ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> GP
<!-- end ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.resultsAvailable --> </td><td><!-- ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> #8
<!-- end ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.resultsAvailable --> </td><td class="ng-binding"><!-- ngIf: wager.isLeaderBoard -->$6 Exacta</td><td class="ng-binding">2, 10, WT, 4, 14</td><td class="alignL faded">none <!-- ngIf: wager.isConditional && wager.isLeaderBoard --> </td><td class="amount bet ng-binding"> $24.00</td><td class="amount return"><!-- ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable && (wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9) --> $739.20
<!-- end ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable && (wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9) --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.payoutsAvailable || (wager.frozenWager == 'true' && CSSDLength != 9) --> </td><td class="amount wonlost" ng-show="wager.conditionalWager == 'true' || wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9"><!-- ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable -->+ $715.20
<!-- end ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.payoutsAvailable --> </td><td class="amount wonlost ng-hide" ng-show="wager.frozenWager == 'true' && CSSDLength != 9">Claim Winnings
<button class="ssn-collection-click-element" ng-click="showSSNCollectionWidget();" ng-disabled="ssnCollecting">Claim Winnings</button>
</td></tr><!-- end ngRepeat: wager in wagers --><tr id="80c8d-56e9a" ng-repeat="wager in wagers"> <td class="alignL"><!-- ngIf: wager.isFailed --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.isFailed --> COMPLETED: <!-- end ngIf: !wager.isFailed --> <!-- ngIf: !(wager.isConditional && wager.status == 'OPEN') --> 80c8d-56e9a<!-- end ngIf: !(wager.isConditional && wager.status == 'OPEN') --> <!-- ngIf: wager.isCancellable --> </td><td><!-- ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> GP
<!-- end ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.resultsAvailable --> </td><td><!-- ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> #8
<!-- end ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.resultsAvailable --> </td><td class="ng-binding"><!-- ngIf: wager.isLeaderBoard -->$4 Exacta</td><td class="ng-binding">8, 12, WT, 4, 14</td><td class="alignL faded">none <!-- ngIf: wager.isConditional && wager.isLeaderBoard --> </td><td class="amount bet ng-binding"> $16.00</td><td class="amount return"><!-- ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable && (wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9) --> $0.00
<!-- end ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable && (wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9) --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.payoutsAvailable || (wager.frozenWager == 'true' && CSSDLength != 9) --> </td><td class="amount wonlost" ng-show="wager.conditionalWager == 'true' || wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9"><!-- ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable -->- $16.00
<!-- end ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.payoutsAvailable --> </td><td class="amount wonlost ng-hide" ng-show="wager.frozenWager == 'true' && CSSDLength != 9">Claim Winnings
<button class="ssn-collection-click-element" ng-click="showSSNCollectionWidget();" ng-disabled="ssnCollecting">Claim Winnings</button>
</td></tr><!-- end ngRepeat: wager in wagers --><tr id="2a9b8-b1c87" ng-repeat="wager in wagers"> <td class="alignL"><!-- ngIf: wager.isFailed --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.isFailed --> COMPLETED: <!-- end ngIf: !wager.isFailed --> <!-- ngIf: !(wager.isConditional && wager.status == 'OPEN') --> 2a9b8-b1c87<!-- end ngIf: !(wager.isConditional && wager.status == 'OPEN') --> <!-- ngIf: wager.isCancellable --> </td><td><!-- ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> GP
<!-- end ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.resultsAvailable --> </td><td><!-- ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> #8
<!-- end ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.resultsAvailable --> </td><td class="ng-binding"><!-- ngIf: wager.isLeaderBoard -->$1 Exacta</td><td class="ng-binding">4, WT, 2, 8, 10, 12</td><td class="alignL faded">none <!-- ngIf: wager.isConditional && wager.isLeaderBoard --> </td><td class="amount bet ng-binding"> $4.00</td><td class="amount return"><!-- ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable && (wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9) --> $0.00
<!-- end ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable && (wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9) --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.payoutsAvailable || (wager.frozenWager == 'true' && CSSDLength != 9) --> </td><td class="amount wonlost" ng-show="wager.conditionalWager == 'true' || wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9"><!-- ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable -->- $4.00
<!-- end ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.payoutsAvailable --> </td><td class="amount wonlost ng-hide" ng-show="wager.frozenWager == 'true' && CSSDLength != 9">Claim Winnings
<button class="ssn-collection-click-element" ng-click="showSSNCollectionWidget();" ng-disabled="ssnCollecting">Claim Winnings</button>
</td></tr><!-- end ngRepeat: wager in wagers --><tr id="9bbb8-80676" ng-repeat="wager in wagers"> <td class="alignL"><!-- ngIf: wager.isFailed --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.isFailed --> COMPLETED: <!-- end ngIf: !wager.isFailed --> <!-- ngIf: !(wager.isConditional && wager.status == 'OPEN') --> 9bbb8-80676<!-- end ngIf: !(wager.isConditional && wager.status == 'OPEN') --> <!-- ngIf: wager.isCancellable --> </td><td><!-- ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> GP
<!-- end ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.resultsAvailable --> </td><td><!-- ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> #8
<!-- end ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.resultsAvailable --> </td><td class="ng-binding"><!-- ngIf: wager.isLeaderBoard -->$3 Exacta</td><td class="ng-binding">14, WT, 2, 8, 10, 12</td><td class="alignL faded">none <!-- ngIf: wager.isConditional && wager.isLeaderBoard --> </td><td class="amount bet ng-binding"> $12.00</td><td class="amount return"><!-- ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable && (wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9) --> $0.00
<!-- end ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable && (wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9) --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.payoutsAvailable || (wager.frozenWager == 'true' && CSSDLength != 9) --> </td><td class="amount wonlost" ng-show="wager.conditionalWager == 'true' || wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9"><!-- ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable -->- $12.00
</td></tr></tbody></table>

Mitch44

Beautiful hit Mitch
You and the monkey are awsome :)

Mitch44 12-01-2018 10:33 PM

Thanks ever so much Richie, Tim and Bill. Looking forward to one day meeting up with Richie & Bill, perhaps the next Sar. meeting.

My procedure went well Richie but not out of the woods yet as there are a couple more issues to be dealt with. Thanks for your prayers Richie & Karen and best vibes. Ditto and right back at you.


If you looked at my betting I also played the 8 & 12 with the 4 & 14 as I thought they had a shot but I made a bigger bet with the 2 & 10. The 8 switched to dirt in last two and won both. Again the ? is where is the top on this horse and how good is he, plus his M/L was 20 to 1.


I really thought this race set up for an upset and off the pace horses to win with the 3 leading them to run too fast for the distance. Of the sprinters stretching out the 2 & 14 were the two best counter energy horses.


Mitch44

rmath 12-02-2018 09:21 AM

Congratulations
 
Way to go Mitch.
A very nice score.
I hope your health continues to improve.
Rmath

Mitch44 12-02-2018 12:40 PM

% Med. arrived in 1988 and was first introduced in Synergism II, a program I had around 1990. It replaced the old % Early and used all 3 Fractions rather than just SC and 3rd FR., making it much more accurate.


The formula for it is (F1 + F2) / (F1+ F2+F3).Its within RDSS and automatically computed by the Feet Per Second fractions. It is not a stand alone Factor but more a supplementary tool that can eliminate contenders. I.e. in the race above 6 horses were stretching out and automatically it eliminates the # 1 & 3 as being too early, of the six stretch outs the 2 & 14 were best on HE and Late with the # 14 & 2 the 1 & 2 counter energy horses. Also the 2 & 14 put together two good FR's (2 & 3rd )which is confirmed on the Vel-POH screen.


In the case of the winner above (#2) he was in the money 9 of 10 races and won 3 of them. The public assumes he is a sprinter but an examination of his % M and his % M ESP dictates he can stretch out. Note: the % Med and the visual ESP are completely different, the visual is for the match up and the % M ESP for all other uses. The parameters for the % Med ESP are much more accurate than the visual ESP. A horse can go wire to wire and not be an E type horse. The public is fooled by this frequently to include many RDSS users.

Those that keep a % Med Track Profile will be able to determine if a shipper can adapt to today's track , adapt to Turf or stretch out. I play too many different tracks for these profiles but if I only played 1 track I would keep one. I understand concept so I'm able to employ it without a profile.


Stretch out are a common handicapping problem that a player must deal with. Anytime you can eliminate even 1 contender or horse you are closer to your goal of winning. The public can not deal with stretch outs and they generally pay much more than your everyday winner. Even if you missed this big EX. the winner # 2 payed $ 30.20 to win. I also wrote about the value of % Med in a previous thread.Get this tool in your toolbox!


Mitch44

Dorianmode 12-09-2018 09:59 AM

The real test for the monkey will be when you sit him down with a keyboard, and he types out the complete works of Shakespeare. (sorry inside "probability" joke)

Mitch44 12-10-2018 08:56 PM

Dorianmode:


The Monkey came about back when I was a Drill Instructor in the Army. After dealing with some real knucklehead's, I came to the conclusion that I could teach a monkey how to soldier given enough time and bananas.


My monkey could never complete the works of Shakespeare due to his age which slows him down, and at best he could only be taught to peck one letter at a time. 0 probability! ha ha Additionally no reward in that endeavor.


My plan is to keep him employed within his capabilities and limitations which is throwing those darts and getting winners.


Wishing you success at this brain teaser of a game called horse racing.


Best of luck,
Mitch44


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