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-   2014 (http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=138)
-   -   European performance recently (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9989)

Bill Lyster 10-29-2014 07:56 PM

European performance recently
 
In the last two BC's, there were 6 turf races per year. In each year the Euros won the Juvenile Turf and Juvenile Fillies Turf and last year they won the F&M turf. So 5 wins total in two years.

If you use the Trackmaster version of New Pace (the non adjusted paceline version) the Euro winner was either L1 or L2 Late horse in each of these five races. There were two cold exactas in the top two Late which involved Euros only.

BTW when using NP I use the two best Late numbers, not necessarily the ones where the program shows a 1 and 2 choice. Especially with the Juveniles.

This year's NP Euro turf info;

10/31 - SA 6: #4 (Commenorative) and #7 (War Envoy) are L1 and L2, BUT, #5 (Hootenanny) is E2, but its late number is 3 points higher than either of the NP Late horses. Very interesting. Hootenanny has raced on both continents, gets its rating from the European races. When you use adjusted times from early in the year it does not fare so well. I'd play all three here.

10/31 - SA 8: #2 (Osaila) and #14 (Qualify)/#13 (Prize Exhibit). these last two are tied for L2. The #3 (Sunset Glow) is E1 based on its Euro racing; when you use adjusted SRs its E2, but the segments screen shows it 0-0-0 off a 7 furlong poly line (only 2 available)

11/01 - SA 5: #6 (Fiesolana) and #3 (Dank) are L1 and L2, a close third is #5 (Secret Gesture)


Other turf races with Euros

11/01 - SA 9: #7 (Flintshire), #11 (Chicquita) are L1 and L2; the 3rd and 4th L horses are also Euros #1 (Telescope) and #8 (Magician who has been scratched.) Magician in the Turf has scratched. But the top three L horses in the Turf (7-11-1) by New Pace are rated 126/124/123 then a significant gap to lower numbers.


11/-1 - SA 11: #9 (Anodin) and #5 (Toronado) are L1 and L2

Turf sprint note:
I would not use the NP info for the turf sprint. First of all, any turf race down the hill at SA needs an added seven points of adjusted speed rating to equal other tracks' turf sprints. Usually an 82 or 83 down the hill equates to an 89 or 90 from any other turf sprint location. So with that said, there are only 5 races per year rateable via NP, so five out of ten races with the winner in the top two aint too bad (short sample notwithstanding.)

good luck this weekend,

Ted Craven 10-29-2014 08:25 PM

Thanks for that angle on working the Euros, Bill! You can't play many horizontal bets without dealing with them.

Will definitely be checking out your observations.

Good luck/skill!

Ted

dogkatcher 10-29-2014 08:33 PM

Hi Bill, great admirer of your work.

I find myself a little confused (alot) by this statement:

BUT, #5 (Hootenanny) is E2, but its late number is 3 points higher than either of the NP Late horses. Did you mean his Early number?

If not, could you please guide me to how I can find the late number for Hoot.
when you have a chance.

Have a Great Breeders Cup, enjoy.

Thanks,
John

Bill Lyster 10-29-2014 08:45 PM

Sorry John, yes I meant his early number was 3 higher than the best late group.

Bill Lyster 10-30-2014 01:11 AM

1 Attachment(s)
this is what I meant;

dogkatcher 10-30-2014 01:36 AM

Thanks Bill, I just have to watch out for Ted as he
sneaks stuff in there like the magic white spot I have
on my readouts. Almost 100% winners too.

Bill Lyster 10-30-2014 10:19 AM

OK John, now its my turn to be befuddled or confused. What is the magic white spot? Is it because you lean over the form and the sugar from your powdered donut falls magically over one of the PPs?

Bill

Ted Craven 10-30-2014 10:28 AM

LOL! John has alluded to a mysterious white spot on some of his RDSS screens, but I can never figure out which one or where it falls.

The White of Wisdom factor (WoW) :D

(Though, I did see John attack a donut a couple of years ago in Las Vegas, so maybe Bill has stumbled onto the answer ...)

Ted

Bill Lyster 10-30-2014 10:47 AM

Maybe something just "LOOMS Up" from the page....

atkinsrr 10-30-2014 05:37 PM

you guys are crackin' me up....we don't have time to be eatin' donuts...there's work to be done........


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