Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   M4$16/2 Oct 8-Pat C. (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10656)

The Pook 10-03-2016 03:00 PM

M4$16/2 Oct 8-Pat C.
 
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Pat C

Pat C. 10-07-2016 04:45 PM

Match4Cash
 
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For this race let's go to the west coast, away from the storm. Santa Anita, race #7. Looks like an interesting setup with no clear early horse and only a 7/2 morning line favorite. Good luck all!

Pat C. 10-07-2016 05:13 PM

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The Field

Pat C. 10-07-2016 05:17 PM

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And the rest of the field. Sorry about the quality. I am just learning how to post these.

cigar 10-08-2016 04:23 PM

Sa r7
 
Pace 22.1 - 45
OTE
Win 2-6

mick 10-08-2016 05:35 PM

WP - #6

Projected pace 22.2 - 44.5 - 116.6 (based on #6's effort 2 back). I don't think #6 will have lead at 1st Call but should have it at 2nd Call, so
OTE.

#6 has been off for 51 days but has trained well and his 2nd Call time is formidable with this bunch. Speed has been holding at SA today, at least to deep stretch. Hopefully, #6 will take the lead on the turn and pedal on home.

mick

gandalf380 10-08-2016 05:58 PM

SA #7

not much speed in this race. Looking for #10 to run big on or close to lead. I also like #2 but he seems to be adverse to winning.

#10 to win
#2 to place

Pat C. 10-08-2016 06:22 PM

I am looking for the #6 to get the lead and maybe go all the way unless pressed by the #10. If the speed breaks down the #8 may be able to pick up some pieces.

Win #6
Win & Place #8

The Pook 10-08-2016 06:32 PM

SA7

A) 3 is the only horse to have been in the lead position at the first call and done something with it.

B) It is difficult to project a pace here because of the lack of early pace. I used the modest one from the tandem on July 9 at SA of 22.6 and 45.6. I believe if the 3 can take the lead in around those times he may hold it. He was fighting a couple of early types in that race and folded. I don’t see the same guys here but if some horse does challenge again I am sure he will fold again.

C) Of the others, the 10 seems like he should be positioned best to take advantage. Because I don’t think things will be fast, there are a lot of horses who will likely be too far back.

D) I like the 2 but this horse has been hanging around non-winners of two forever. So why today?

E) 3 and 10 have only had three races each in this category and it could be their time. Looks like good odds on everything!

3,10 WIN

mick 10-09-2016 09:05 AM

A furlong from the wire, I thought #6 would run down the leaders and win. A half furlong out, I was just hoping he would hold on for place (which he did, fortunately). He has a nice turn of foot, but now Mr. O'Neill needs to school him on how to run in a straight line.

Ain't horseracing fun? :D

mick


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