The Derby-A look back
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There are a couple of things that "Doc" said that most people seem to forget.
1 - when handicapping the derby, only use horses that have finished first or second in Grade I or Grade II races. 2 - the last line is the line...unless there is a "valid" reason to go back one line To these points I will add one of my own that I have posted numerous times and that is; eliminate horses with a ML=>20/1 If you followed these three easy steps, you would have started your handicapping with the following horses; 3,4,5,6,8,11,14,15 and 19. I don't use any Sartin software or RDSS, however, I did run these horses through ENERGY and have posted the screen shots below. If you look at the first screen, you will see that #11 and #15 have a much lower TOTAL ENERGY than the rest of the contenders, which means they are that much slower, and for that reason I eliminated them. That leaves seven horses remaining. Now ENERGY does not have a "line score", but it is easy enough to calculate yourself. Just add the rankings across from screen 4 for each horse from left to right. This is the way they would line up: #5 = 17 #19 = 18 #8 = 19 #14 = 21 #3 = 27 #4 = 27 #6 = 32 In addition, the "variegate" indicated "EARLY" (see screen 3). #19 was the third ranked "EARLY" horse. Coupling the variegate and the line score together, the eventual winner is clearly a play. Also, although the #6 horse does not get a favorable line score, it is the "energizer" and owns the first two fractions in the race as seen on screen 5, where it is the 0.00 horse for the first two fractions. These are "serious" contenders. As you are all aware by now, the final result was #19 first and #6 second. There are no tricks or gimmicks here, just straight forward practices. |
Energy
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Perfect FTL !
I reran the race with Energy using the lines you posted I got the 2 adjust alarm The 11 and 5 coming out of the Wood AQU had 159 total energys and everbody else was right around 164.00 Since we have established grade 1 and 2 winners and place horses as true contenders in the derby I did use the 2 adjust Here is my look Every horse had a sustained ESP The Varigate shows Sustained With a sustained varigate paragon B is the win energy screen The winner #19 I'll is ranked third The place horse # 6 is in the top 2 on Paragon A = the counter energy horses Kgen/thoromation mirrored RDSS and Val 4 Yes a contender yet hard to get to Attachment 26855 Attachment 26856 |
FTL and Bill,
Nice job showing the screenshots and explanations Jeff |
Derby Energy with RDSS 2.0
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The above posts by FTL and Bill were excellent and quite an eye opener for me.
In particular the RDSS 2.0 TE energy numbers for horses 11 & 15 are significantly different ( screens below) than the 159.xx readings for the same horses shown in the above posts. I used the last lines for both 11 & 15 which were both solid G1 lines. This placed both horses on top of the energy food chain in RDSS 2.0 and of course considered these horses as prime candidates. I am starting to investigate this as best I could but at this point I don't why there is such a discrepancy ??? Ernie |
TE Difference
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FTL, Bill............Can either of you explain/show the numbers for the calculation
for the TE energy for tAlpha (11) and Gemologist (15). In the RDSS 2.0 panel (below) the numbers are displayed. Thanks, Ernie |
Difference in TE #'s
Ernie - I am extremely interested in your findings, as I am unsure why the difference in TE.
Thanks, JD |
Ftl - great job
FTL - Great Jo on Derby Contenders - KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid).
I need to remember this year for next year. JD |
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Before I go further, I noticed in your first post that you used line 2 for the winner. You should have used line 1. "The last line IS the line, unless there is a "valid" reason to go back one line". There is no valid reason here to go back one line. "Doc" said it. I just AGREE with it! |
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Someone wrote to me and asked about my take on the derby. In response, I simply provided them with the "top 5" (25% of the field) in a few categories. Unlike most people, I am concerned with each horses "early" position. The top 5 in that category were #'s 3,6,14,15,19, in post position order. I did not consider #9 (Trinniberg) as this horse was just an annoyance in this race. I also provided them with the "top 5" horses based on final time. Those horses were the #'s 5,6,8,10,19, again, in post position order. You can see three things from this; 1 - the winner and the second horse were among the 5 best first call position horses. 2 - the winner, place horse and show horse were among the the 5 best final time horses. 3 - the #11 and #15 were NOT among the top 5 final time horses So these findings tend to confirm the findings through ENERGY. |
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Yes, I can verify the first call position and final times and what you have stated in points 1.2 and 3 of your post is absolutely correct. I admit I did not look at those times originally (Which is an absolutely must going forward) as I used the rankings from RDSS. I am also re-posting the panels for all the representative horses. I made a judgement call to use line 2 for # 19. Had I used line 1 for #19 I would still get a TE# 0f 163.xx which does not alter the question for me which is.......... How does the program that you and Bill used specifically compute Total Energy ???? As I understand RDSS simply computes Total Energy = F1 + F2 +F3. Using the data for Horse 15 (2nd panel below)) TE = 56.9 + 54.6 + 53.8 = 165.3 (RDSS shows 165.2 which may result from rounding) Your program resulted in TE = 159.xx (Siginificant Difference). This was critical for the Derby as your program correclty eliminated the 11 & 15 horses from contention. So now I am not comfortable with this situation. Ernie |
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