Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   2016 BC Classic 1 1/4 on dirt (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10714)

lone speed 11-05-2016 08:16 PM

2016 BC Classic 1 1/4 on dirt
 
Question....
Can Bob Baffert and Arrogate hold off World traveler and world beater California Chrome.....and allow Baffert to win three straight Breeders' Cup Classic races...

California Chrome is the pace of the race and is at his home dirt course which has favored early pace runners over the years at this classic dirt distance.

Arrogate is the late bloomer who destroyed the Saratoga track record at this distance in his first attempt at the classic distance. This will be a exciting match up, maybe at the same level as Songbird versus Beholder....we will see....

Good skills to all...

Tim Y 11-05-2016 10:23 PM

When the quality of a field is almost equal, TOP TO BOTTOM, or, you have NO way of comparing the progress of youngsters, IT IS TIME TO WATCH, not wager.

Last Breeder's Cup wager for me was Quija Board

I had the Time Form evaluations from Britain and they were all over the place as well. They obviously did not take into account the very fast turf there in Arcadia.

They did have the Turf race tagged 1st 2nd and 3rd however.

mick 11-08-2016 11:01 AM

The Classic was our "Match Up" race and I looked at it for hours. While I needed better odds for the contest and didn't bet him, I expected Chrome to win and at the quarter pole, I would have bet the farm on him. Easy lead, comfortable fractions, and then 3YO Arrogate runs him down in the last 100 yards. Inexplicable.

I love this game but I'm sure glad I don't have to do it for a living. :D

mick

atkinsrr 11-08-2016 10:04 PM

To me the best race of the weekend was Race 11 on saturday...I've been waiting on Tourist and Tepin to come back...couldn't figure why the crowd let Tourist go at 12/1 I bet both of them to win...made my day...in addition to have good pace figs...Tourist had been in 9 Grade one Races out of his last 10 starts.

lone speed 11-10-2016 10:00 AM

Daily Racing Form article...

"Last weekend, New Yorker Joseph Appelbaum won the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge, netting $364,000. Appelbaum, 48, runs Off the Hook Stables, a racing and breeding operation located in Ocala, Fla. Daily Racing Form caught up with him in the aftermath of his big win."

Joseph Appelbaum had a plan and put his money where his " opinion" was strongest....:cool:
From DRF.....

What was your plan coming in to the contest?

"On Friday, I mostly treaded water trying to keep both bankrolls intact. In the Distaff, I bet $5,000 to win on Beholder, essentially emptying one account. I was very fortunate, but it put me in good position for Saturday.

On Saturday, I was mostly interested in betting on Om, Arrogate, and the Euros in the turf races. If Om had gotten up, I would have been in a really strong position, but likely so too would a lot of other players. I then built up my smaller bankroll so I had two chances to get home in the last two races. In the Classic, I hit a $13,000 one-way exacta, Arrogate over Chrome. I also played a $1,000 exacta Arrogate over Effinex."

Tim Y 11-13-2016 12:43 PM

Most handicapping contests boil down to DUMB LUCK as the organizers DICTATE not only the Race you MUST bet on, but they also limit your chance to wager the many ways offered or in what denomination.

What all those limitations DO, is level the playing field against the people who have gone the extra mile and KNOW the advantages at wagering on tracks where they have shown a long term positive ROI.

THEY did NOT reflect the reality of the game. Most don't even calculate the LOST wagers against the profits on the winning ones....Fantasy land.

Real players KNOW several tracks intimately and utilize that inside information gleaned by hours of research, innovation and sweat, to have an advantage. These contests neutralize those hard earned edges.

No wonder these handicapping winners rarely repeat. When luck is your partner in winning, it has a fickle way of not hanging around long.

jms62 11-18-2016 08:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tim Y (Post 106305)
Most handicapping contests boil down to DUMB LUCK as the organizers DICTATE not only the Race you MUST bet on, but they also limit your chance to wager the many ways offered or in what denomination.

What all those limitations DO, is level the playing field against the people who have gone the extra mile and KNOW the advantages at wagering on tracks where they have shown a long term positive ROI.

THEY did NOT reflect the reality of the game. Most don't even calculate the LOST wagers against the profits on the winning ones....Fantasy land.

Real players KNOW several tracks intimately and utilize that inside information gleaned by hours of research, innovation and sweat, to have an advantage. These contests neutralize those hard earned edges.

No wonder these handicapping winners rarely repeat. When luck is your partner in winning, it has a fickle way of not hanging around long.

Then why are the same faces always on the leaderboards. Your post reeks of sour grapes as someone unable to do more than talk the talk.

Tim Y 11-18-2016 11:11 AM

I look at EACH race as an entity for exotics: who is out front, who presses, who tries to come late. At the end, contenders should be there: HOWEVER, their order is RANDOM. NO one can predict, race to race, what the relative order of contenders will be from the 1/16th pole to the wire. NO ONE. The essence of the GAMBLE (and recall that is what we are doing) is to cover and hope that the order of finish will favor the combinations the crowd does not cover. I have long ago learned from some very creative players, that the pot of gold is often made up of easily found contenders, just is an order that the crowd does not go deep enough to cover.

ANYONE focusing on JUST winners all day long, as these silly contests project, WILL lose in the long run GUARANTEED. Also grinders, who make steady profits on LOGICAL overlays, will lose out to the lucky "stabbers" among the players. Also, WHERE, in the real world, does one ONLY COUNT PROFITS and disregards lost bets? Not in any REAL world situation I have ever been around.

Any contest, to define ability at the race track, depends upon how one tackles the ENTIRE game (capping and wager creation) based upon many of the HARD EARNED, statistical evaluations each player has defined over tediously obtained stats gleaned from various tracks: NOT trying to be forced to follow How and Where to bet in a contest. One loses the freedom of playing the game to one's strengths. A contest, as randomly as they are set up, may be based upon tracks one hardly knows. NO ONE bets on tracks that are mysteries to them, or if they DO, their bankroll is going to have a quick death.

Getting the contenders is another entire world from just focusing on THE WINNER. Working the photo finish camera now for almost 7 seasons at both the t-breds and standardbreds, one gets a better appreciation of how close races often are, how many CONTENDERS are right there at the end, and the RANDOMNESS of picking that order of finish pre-race.

With good record keeping one sees patterns at each track: the splitzacta (speed runs first and third), the bottomzacta (a common way that turfers run with the logicals running 2nd and 3rd), and many other WAGERING result patterns specific to one race track or another.

The proficient player FINDS the races (in a multiple tracks per day review) that fit the PROVEN patterns that course has shown produces rather than be forced to play courses that have no known patterns. I often filter all the maiden races that day just to discover the 2nd call maidens that are impoving, then see if they have a shot to hold on to that newly found speed.

Tim Y 11-18-2016 11:20 AM

One of the best players I have ever met, no longer goes into these contests. His answer as to why?: "They are too frustrating as it boils down to luck not skill."

Overall competence can get a player to the top 100, dumb luck is what the winners have that day.

Why not play for ROI? Only you will be responsible for winning or losing by your skill set. One does not need to make those efforts public.

A real contest would simply give each player a set amount of capital, let them play all the tracks (any way, or any denomination that was inside the capital limit), recording all the wagers to make sure they were legal. The person with the most $$$$$$ at the end of the day is the BEST PLAYER that day.

Tim Y 11-18-2016 11:34 AM

David Gutfrend (spelling?) was the Horseplayer Interactive (Woodbine betting site) "handicapper" one winter. HE WAS HORRIBLE and this is supposed to be some repeat handicapper winner?

Before his choices were shown I would yell out "Gulfstream on the grass!"...and almost each day he would post CHALK, on the grass at Hallendale while I was playing Oaklawn.

jms62 11-19-2016 12:15 AM

Rather then insulting pepole, show us that you are more than a blowhard who loves to hear themseleves talk. I will donate $500 to the charity of your choice if you play $200 per weekend throughout December on this board and are profitable for the month. You risk not a dime. Do you accept?

Bill V. 11-19-2016 12:41 AM

nice
 
Hey Guys

Please can we keep things "The Pace and Cap" way and work to help each
other win in a friendly way. Name calling is not what helps us :confused:

My feelings , contest play and daily grinding in the real world are two different animals. Winning a contest could be because you figured "what the heck" But then again, I believe that hard work gets rewarded.

" Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity"
-Seneca

Good Skill
Bill

Tim Y 11-19-2016 07:01 AM

Wagers SHOULD be based on CLOSING ODDS, at least that is the way I have played the game since the middle 70's. One can only suggest where the overlays will be, but they MAY, or MAY not, meet the criteria for a GOOD WAGER as opposed to being a logical HANDICAPPING choice. Exotics are less dependent on them as the order of finish can negate them.

This game has TWO sides: Prioritizing the animals based upon LOGICAL aspects as to what your records show work at a particular track, surface or class, and THEN, WHOLLY DIFFERENT, is the evaluation of the MARKET offered on those initial assertions.

The TWO sides can ONLY be rectified at the time of the race. It is folly to suggest that anytime more than about 2 minutes before the race, ANYONE can logically and repeatedly point out the possible OVERLAYS in that contest as the crowd probabilities (odds) are in flux. A great theoretical wager on Friday evening may be a total underlay come post time Saturday.

ANYONE who is proficient at the game in the long run, realizes this dichotomy and waits for his/her spot, rather than stick with possible underlays that may well reflect proper handicapping for that race.

Handicapping is NOT wagering. Wagering is NOT handicapping. They require completely different modus operandi (like the old idea of left brain right brain functions). The TYPE of wager on any particular race is arrived at differently based upon the odds of that contest. Those odds are NOT available well in advance of the race.

My only adversary is the CROWD and how they see the contest relative to my interpretation. They have no idea that randomness is controlling their outcomes.

jms62 11-19-2016 10:23 AM

I'm reasonable.. Bet anytime, we will use posting time vs Off Time in Equibase charts. Any modifications time stamped after Equibase off time will result in loss. We all know you are one of the elite 10% players that are profitable so this should be an easy $500 for the charity of your choice or you can keep it but you seem like an honorable and charitable guy so I doubt that would be the case.

Just understand the reason I have a bug up my ass is I really don't respect those horse players that disparage other horse players. It is a tough hobby that we have and we all are fighting to be in that 10% and quite frankly I have never met one of the 10% that is anything but respectful to other players after all you want to keep the other 90% in the game right so why disrespect them. As far as public handicappers go I can not think of a harder job than posting your opinion knowing that it isn't even the way you would play. See you have to appease your boss by having a high winning % because he has no appreciation that you can win 5% of the time and be WILDLY profitable in the game. The only way to be successful in this game is to understand that cashing tickets doesn't equate to being a profitable player. Win Quality trumps (:() win quantity. The tools that Tim has provided us continue to identify those situations.

Jeebs 09-26-2018 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tim Y (Post 106356)
Wagers SHOULD be based on CLOSING ODDS, at least that is the way I have played the game since the middle 70's.

Just came into this thread, and this is a bit of a misleading comment. Wagers SHOULD be based on the odds as close to gate load as possible, as the closing odds become final as the race is in progress. Since we can't "lock in" our bets during the actual running of a race, this is the best we can do. This is why value boys like Meadow, Mitchell, etc., preach demanding a premium on your acceptable odds, so that you're not as impacted by the final tote swing than you would if you didn't demand a premium. Of course, a horse could be outside of the acceptable odds/premium odds range as they are loading, and might go off above the premium... it happens. Again, until fixed odds betting becomes prevalent in the North American racing game, there are going to be times where late tote action torches us.


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