DMR for 8/15/18
 

R1: (2:00): 9 runners, 5 FTS:

8 -- shortens by 0.5f, 3rd race lifetime, dropping from MSW race, first time in claimer, jockey switch to Talamo, win contender if runs back to July 29 race

9 -- 3rd race lifetime, first after claim, jockey switch to Prat, probably winner if runs back to July 20 race

5 -- second time lasix, second race lifetime, jockey switch to Gonzolaz, win contender if runs back to Aug 4 race

2 -- turf to dirt, route to sprint, 3rd race lifetime, dropping from MSW race, first time in claimer, but probably too slow

4 -- top jockey/trainer combo, FTS

7 -- FTS, avg jockey, top trainer

1 -- FTS, avg jockey, poor trainer

3 -- FTS, avg jockey, poor trainer

6 -- FTS, poor jockey, avg trainer

Strategy: win contenders, 8,9,5,4,7: bet any to win if 5-1 or better, hedge in exactas with others

Race 1 5 1/2F Dirt
Purse: $32000.00
# Name Jockey/Driver Win Place Show
8 Savagery Joseph Talamo 8.60 3.60 3.20
9 Two Fifty Coup Flavien Prat 2.80 2.40
6 Sueno Diego Sanchez 9.20
Bet Type Runners Pay Out
$1 Exacta 8/9 8.40
$1 Quinella 8,9 3.60
$1 Trifecta 8/9/6 174.10
$1 Superfecta 8/9/6/7 1334.20
Scratched: None

DMR r2 (2:33): 7 runners, scratch 2,8


4 -- Blinkers ON, stretches out 0.5f, first after claim, win contender if can run back to Jun 28 race

7 -- stretches out 0.5f, back to previous winning level, 2nd after layoff, projects as winner if runs back to July 25 race

9 -- stretches out 0.5f, dueling win in last, 3rd after layoff, win contender

6 -- route to sprint, jockey switch to Elliot, highest avg earnings => use underneath in exotics

3 -- stretches out by 0.5f, but too slow for this group

1 -- turf to dirt, shorter sprint, lowest claiming price, first after 117 day layoff, jockey switch to Quinonez, win contender with late kick

5 -- drop in claim price to previous winning level, first after 45 day layoff and after claim, jockey switch to Antongeorgi, win contender with late kick

Strategy: use 4,5,7 on top of ex hedge, bet any win contender 4-1 or better

Race 2 6F Dirt
Purse: $20000.00
# Name Jockey/Driver Win Place Show
7 Lambo Luxx Evin A. Roman 6.80 3.60 2.80
9 Go Ghetto Edgar Payeras 5.00 3.40
1 Curly's Waterfront Alonso Quinonez 4.80
Bet Type Runners Pay Out
$1 Exacta 7/9 14.40
$1 Quinella 7,9 7.40
$1 Trifecta 7/9/1 89.80
$1 Superfecta 7/9/1/3 504.10
$1 Double 8/7 14.80
Scratched: 2 Paynes Prairie, 8 Tomasino

Hi Richard
 

Your analysis was right on in race 2

3 of the 4 selectors in the SD union tribune ( who are actually doing well)
Picked the 5 as thier top choice It was the consensus top pick , The only
selector who did not select the 5 selected the actual winner #7

Good job by him I did not look hard enough at the 5. I saw the drop from
10 to 8 after the claim, and just figured it was neg dropper
But as you pointed out he just won for 8 up at GG

Attachment 46936

DMR r3 (3:03): 10 runners, scratch 3:

8 -- drop from allw to previous winning level, 3rd after claim, but can't forgive last race

10 -- no lasix, shortens up, lowest claim price, 4th after layoff, jockey switch to Baze, too slow for this group

9 - drop in claim price to previous winning level, first after 59 day layoff, 3rd after claim, positive jockey switch to Prat, projects to WIN

5 -- previous winning level, fist after 89 day layoff, first after claim, very positive jockey switch to Van Dyke, will be closing, win contender

7 -- sprint to route, first after 60 day layoff, projects to win

11 -- dirt to turf, sprint to route, too slow for this group

1 -- shorter route, drop in claim price, win contender

2 -- shorter route, drop in claim plrice, 2nd after layoff, jockey switch to Pedroza, too slow for this group

6 -- dirt to turf, blinkers on, drop from alw, first time claimer, first after 46 day layoff, jockey switch to Gonzolez, too slow for this group

4 -- shorter route, drop in claim price, too slow

Strategy: use 9 and 7 on top in exacta hedge, win bet 1

DMR r3 (3:03): 10 runners, scratch 3:

8 -- drop from allw to previous winning level, 3rd after claim, but can't forgive last race

10 -- no lasix, shortens up, lowest claim price, 4th after layoff, jockey switch to Baze, too slow for this group

9 - drop in claim price to previous winning level, first after 59 day layoff, 3rd after claim, positive jockey switch to Prat, projects to WIN

5 -- previous winning level, fist after 89 day layoff, first after claim, very positive jockey switch to Van Dyke, will be closing, win contender

7 -- sprint to route, first after 60 day layoff, projects to win

11 -- dirt to turf, sprint to route, too slow for this group

1 -- shorter route, drop in claim price, win contender

2 -- shorter route, drop in claim plrice, 2nd after layoff, jockey switch to Pedroza, too slow for this group

6 -- dirt to turf, blinkers on, drop from alw, first time claimer, first after 46 day layoff, jockey switch to Gonzolez, too slow for this group

4 -- shorter route, drop in claim price, too slow

Strategy: use 9 and 7 on top in exacta hedge, win bet 1

Race 3 1M Turf
Purse: $34000.00
# Name Jockey/Driver Win Place Show
9 Girl Downstairs Flavien Prat 5.40 3.20 2.80
5 Peach Cove (NZ) Drayden Van Dyke 6.60 4.40
10 Gone to Bali Tyler Baze 4.00
Bet Type Runners Pay Out
$1 Exacta 9/5 21.50
$1 Quinella 5,9 11.40
$1 Trifecta 9/5/10 109.80
$1 Superfecta 9/5/10/6 1309.30
$1 Double 7/9 10.80
$1 Pick 3 8/7/9 33.70
Scratched: 3 Easy Song

DMR r4: (3:33): 9 runners, scratch #3

8 -- shortens up by 1f, 3rd after layoff, ITM contender

7 -- turf to dirt, shortens by 1f, dueling win last, first after 59 day layoff, jockey switch to Gutierez: Win contender

4 -- shorter sprint, dueled for place in last, from from alw, first time clm, 2nd after layoff, Win contender

10 -- shorter sprint, big win last, rise in claim to prev winning level, 2nd after layoff, first after claim, jockey switc to Van Dyke, Win Contender

1 --- turf to dirt, route to sprint, coming from alw, first after 430 day layoff, jockey switch to Maldonado, ITM contender

9 -- route to sprint, dropping from starter, first after 87 day layoff, jock switch to Franco

5 -- rise in claim

6 -- shorter sprint, dtop from alw, first clm, very positive jock switch to Gomez, ITM contender

2 -- 3rd after lay, first after clm, postivei jock switch to Prat

Strategy: win bets 4,7, ex hedge 10/4,7,6,1,8

Race 4 5 1/2F Dirt
Purse: $24000.00
# Name Jockey/Driver Win Place Show
8 Always Believe Assael Espinoza 11.00 4.80 3.00
10 Broome Drayden Van Dyke 4.00 2.80
4 Discatsonthesquare Gary L. Stevens 2.80
Bet Type Runners Pay Out
$1 Exacta 8/10 18.70
$1 Quinella 8,10 7.70
$1 Trifecta 8/10/4 54.70
$1 Superfecta 8/10/4/7 260.80
$1 Double 9/8 19.50
$1 Pick 3 7/9/8 78.80
Scratched: 3 Party Hostess