Turf choices just for turning on your RDSS program
 

I have been doing some research about handicapping in general and ran across this bit of information. It applies to turf racing which generally runs late at most distances. I look at any turf race and before I pass judgement on the best of last three line chosen by the computer I go to the Primary screen and see who the top 3 LPR horses are and record that in the margin of my notes.

Yesterday and a day or two back I found this information.

Fun fact of the day (1/7/22) at FG. Turf races were 2-4-6-8. Before any handicapping the top 3 LPR from the Primary screen were as follows:

R2 6-5-7, 6 wins at 3.5
R4 1-7-6, horses finish 7-1-6, winner at 4.7
R6 3-5-10, 3 wins at 2.8
R8 7-6-2, horses finish 6-7-2, winner at 1.6

AT SA 3 of the first 4 races, the top 3 LPR had winner 3 times before capping.

At TAM 2 playable races 1 top 3 LPR at 7/1

Yesterday at FG 4 turf races all 4 won by one of the top 3 LPR with one sweep, 1 win place, 1 win show and 1 win with 5/2 being the highest price

This could be just a short term anomaly, so anyone else who can track this should chime in. It could be a great starting point for better turf results.

Bill

Thanks for sharing

Jeff

Bill,

It would have to be a short term thing. Just for fun I tracked all turf races yesterday in North America for top 3 LPR before handicapping, betting $20 on each plus ties. It may have worked on the 7th but not the 8th. Still short term but it would be too easy for this to hold up over time.

Bill Lysters Turf Test
Jan 8 2022

FG 2 (3,10,2) OUT -$60
FG 4 (3,7,9) OUT -$60
FG 6 (1,7,2) OUT -$60
FG 8 (3,10,4) OUT -$60
GP 6 (9,2,4) WIN +$10
GP 8 (2,5,3) WIN +$174
GP 9 (9,7,13) OUT -$60
HOU 3 (1,3,4,5) WIN +$63
SA 1 (6,4,2) OUT -$60
SA 3 (6,1,8) WIN -$28
SA 5 (10,2,6,5) OUT -$80
SA 7 (8.5.9) OUT -$60
SA 9 (12,11,3) OUT -$60
TAM 1 (7,5,2) WIN +$54
TAM 5 (5,3,7) WIN +$6
TAM 7 (1,4,8) OUT -$60
TAM 10 (5,9,4) OUT -$60

Hit 6/17
Return -$401

Pook

Pook,

I have to agree. I went back and did several races and what you show held true. However, some patterns appear that might be worthwhile looking into. I did not cap any maiden races with more than 2 FTS.

I am looking at the VDC info. Ideally you'd want your contenders to be gaining from 1F-2C-FIN, with the exception being early horses, but earlies should be within say 2.0-3.0 at 1F, if not they are out. If a close up early loses .1 or.2 at 2C it needs to make that up by the FIN number, else out. A really sustained horse may not gain or even lose a little at 2C, but must have a big FIN and a low overall VDC to be considered.

You will occasionally find a 0-0-0 horse with a VDC at 4.0 +/-, that 4.0 is a real red sign, have not seen any win lately. In general you can eliminate any horse with a VDC 4.0 or greater, but look at the context of the other horses before doing so.

Thanks for your followup. Good to share info with you.

Bill

For me, a warning sign is when I predict nearly all of the horses to be at or near a similar pace. This is especially true if I show a lot of, say, SP horses and no E or L. I am still working through what to do in these situations.

Weather can also be a factor. Based on past observations at Bel if they get no rain in the later part of June into July the turf courses become like cement
and the late horses are at a distinct disadvantage. Didn't track it this yr.
Tim

Good observation, Tim. I think this is true at Lone Star, too. In Texas, we get a lot of wild weather in the spring and in June it starts getting hot and dry. The turf course often becomes more early. One year, we had no rain from Memorial Day to Labor Day and 81 days over 100 degrees.

Hi Bill. I first met Howard Sartin 22 years ago or so, back when Synthesis was the main program or becoming the main program of the methodology. I was trying to make a living on betting on thoroughbreds and was getting frustrated with so many things. Turf races were a main gripe of mine, so being young and knowing everything, I stated to Howard that turf races are impossible. I remember him looking at me quizzically and calmly saying, "what do you mean? turf races are mostly just LPR and Hidden Energy". After going back over races that I had lost, I was completely floored by this casual revelation. I worry how much knowledge is being lost as people who were involved in the methodology in the 80's, like my dad, pass away.

Thanks Dan, its always good to get some "old" new info.

I will check it out.

Hey Dan,

Just wondering if you got anything more specific from Howard, especially about the inclusion of HIDDEN factor and its interrelationship, if any, to the LPR.

The Primary screen shows the values of the various factors, so there is a basis to make comparisons of what we might call real numbers as opposed to just the rankings 1-2-3-4. The primary screen allows a little more perspective on how close is close or how good is good, when a horse is ranked above another.

Thanks,