Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   Breeders' Cup 2014 - Saturday Nov 1 (http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=140)
-   -   Race 12- BC Classic Race 2014 (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9999)

Mr.Pagine 11-02-2014 09:55 AM

BC Wrap up...
 
It was another incredible day of racing yesterday with horses paying anywhere from 60-1, 13-1. and others.

As I have always thought about Pace and Cap, it seems to do better with better horses. The problem for me yesterday was the Euros, as I had to include them off of no statistics, as I have watched them do very well in previous years.

Hi-lites, and winners for me were, Dayatthespa, Texas Red, Main Sequence and Bayern. I am a little upset with myself for not betting more on the winners, and trying to hit too many exactors and triactors.

Still stunned that Bayern went off at 7-1, and as my friend has coined "The Splitzacta" cost me some $$ with CC coming in 3rd.

May all of your bets cash, and Happy Punting!!

lone speed 11-02-2014 11:29 AM

In this year’s Breeders Cup Classic, I posted that it might be a great tactical race but I was unawared of the “Battlestar Galactica” consequences that unfolded. A “Cylon attack” was unleashed on Shared Belief and Moreno after the opening of the starting gate. Jockeys Martin Garcia on Bayern and Jamie Spencer on Toast of New York had to be liked fierce pilots on “Viper fighter planes” to survive the early chaos and the wrath of the stewards” inquiry and their final decisions to let the order of finish to remain unchanged .
A quick synopsis:

In this Breeders Cup Classic, it was a Shared Belief that Mike Smith didn’t have a Prayer for Relief as his colt couldn’t get a Footbridge of footing after the start as they got Bayern and was impeded by Toast of New York before the first turn and they had a Tonalist of troubles throughout the race.
It was Imperative that a pace duel develop for the closers in the race but Holy Cow! Batman! Poww! Zivo!! Moreno was NO MORE:eek: in the early pace duel. Martin Garcia made off as the “Lone Speed”:cool: in the race like stealing from a Candy Boy.
At the end of the day, it was a VE Day for Bob Baffert, Martin Garcia and owner K. Shah as they ended up on Cigar Street in the winner’s circle near the Majestic Harbor under the California Chrome
.;)

mowens33 11-02-2014 12:07 PM

LS, know that's the best analysis of a race I ever had the pleasure to read!

Good Stuff!!

Mike

Segwin 11-02-2014 01:20 PM

It may not be a popular opinion but Bayern should have been disqualified. It was reckless handling. Can you imagine an F1 race where one driver causes his vehicle to crash into another car??? Costing another team millions of dollars not to mention personal safety.

Inexcusable.

Hoof 11 11-02-2014 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Segwin (Post 98670)
It may not be a popular opinion but Bayern should have been disqualified. It was reckless handling. Can you imagine an F1 race where one driver causes his vehicle to crash into another car??? Costing another team millions of dollars not to mention personal safety.

Inexcusable.

A jock has very little control over what a horse does leaving the gate, most of the time they are holding on for dear life. It is quite common for a horse to bolt left or right when leaving the gate, it’s a daily occurrence. By the time the jock reacts to the horse’s bad exit, it’s too late to correct the problem, that’s racing.

You are comparing a horse with a vehicle with pinpoint steering?

Segwin 11-02-2014 05:15 PM

You are comparing a horse with a vehicle with pinpoint steering?

Couldn't get the forum to quote for some reason.

Yes, I am.

I've heard the statement many times that the jockey is holding on for dear life and has no control over what the horse does. I do not subscribe to that theory. If we sent horses out without any rider I can see your point however we don't. This was a blatant violation of a code of conduct. I guess it would be easy for the jockey to say, "Hey man, I'm just trying to stay on the horse... what it does once it leaves the gate is up to the horse as I have no control". Jockey's frequently pull a horse up that is heading into troubles waters to prevent clipped heels etc... If the horse is veering that severely off course then it should have been his duty to pull the horse back - this didn't happen which caused the collision of two other horses and changed the outcome of the entire race. Truly a bad showing for our sport especially on prime time TV.

No, it was pretty crappy & a bit of poor sportsmanship.

Bill Lyster 11-02-2014 06:12 PM

Was also the fastest mile time in the Marathon analysis. Bayern, Shared Belief and Cal Chrome were top 3 - 134.0 - 134.2 and 134.6

Lt1 11-02-2014 08:21 PM

I bet Bayern and feel he should have been taken down. That was not the everyday bump at the start of race it was a mugging and changed the entire race. By crushing SB who has tactical speed and causing Moreno the horse with inside speed not to get out cleanly he was able to get to rail and the lead in a few hundred feet rather then have to fight for it most likely for the 1st 1/4 mile. Even with that advantage he was life and death to win.

Hoof 11 11-02-2014 11:30 PM

I had no horse in this race so i have no bias. I thought what Bayern did was nothing out of the ordinary, by the second jump i thought the horse was squirrely and running to the left. Whether Garcia was pulling to the left only he knows for certain, but i have seen a lot worse. Last season i saw a horse turn right coming out of the gate and ran straight at the rail, before running straight through it. How much control did the jock have in that situation? I would say absolutely none, you can go on and on.

The one bit of reckless riding i did notice was from Spencer on Toast of New York, he came across after the break and just about levelled two horses in the process, that was all jockey.

DontSayDont 11-03-2014 06:18 AM

What is wrong within the race is the standards of horse racing. Was it a violation or not. According to the stewards, the CHRB code was not broken, therefore no violation as the incident should not have affected the outcome.

Had it been a riding violation then it should have been penalized. If, in football, a quarterback makes a pass play to his LEFT that ends up a touchdown but a player on the RIGHT side of the field is caught holding, the touchdown is taken away and the team is penalized. It doesn't matter that the penalty had NO OUTCOME to the pass play itself. If a violator of the rules gets caught, there will be a penalty applied.

In horse racing, the violations of rules are not always penalized but decided upon by a supposedly unbiased group that addresses the issue on a case by case basis.

In the race in question, it seems there needs to be a clearer rule set into place regarding the handling of horses during the first unviolateable (new word) distance from the starting gate. Plus the ruling should be in place at ALL tracks and render the stewards job easier.

As is, I am surprised it does not happen more often other than the sanity of the jockeys not to put themselves, their fellow riders and their horses in greater risk than they already are.


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