Saratoga race 11 - Woodward
 

Here's what I got!


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tough call
 

Hi Ted


Tough one, I did not go to line 4 so my RX+ did not have the 1
in my contenders

Bill

Attachment 47084

I tried all the ways I know how to make sense of this, and it just seemed inscrutable. So I watched. Hope all our friends still in Saratoga enjoyed the day and this finale weekend to the season.



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I'll be there tomorrow for the windbreakers and on Monday, I'll be there in spirit as I have a family engagement. Paying my last respects to the Spa at the end of the season is always bittersweet, but makes me look forward to the year ahead.

It seems to be a common thread amongst the Sartin programs RE: the handling of a horse moving turf to dirt and vice versa. Horses like GOOD SAMARITAN last summer, and CATHOLIC BOY and YOSHIDA were tough to buy off their lines and line scores, yet handled the surface switch and ran huge with little to no indication that it was forthcoming. At the end of the day, you just never know how a horse will take to a surface switch, especially the first time. However, it is a frustrating fact of life that our tools will sometimes have a tough time supporting such a horse and at times, we will have to live and die by the sword.

I didn't play this race, but I ran it through my profile to see how it looked. I did go back to the Oct-17 race for the paceline for the 1. The only way I see, being honest, I might have included the 1, is .... I do look at the relative rank in the Rx screen, with all the lines I use for my speed rating calculations for each horse. That gave me the 10, 9, and the 1.

What is remarkable about this race (to me) is the relative equality in ability of many if not most of the runners. I've developed some "quality" ratings which quantify the relative advantage of the top two in my calculations (for my dutch) over the next three runners. I've never seen such low relative advantage numbers.... terrible actually. If I had considered this race, I would never have bet it ... there was no advantage to be had, by my eval.

I had the 1 keyed with 3 horses in exacta boxes including the show horse and didn't cash a ticket :(

tough race with a 14 horse field...I had to pass it...too tough for me