Why Skip
 

hello friends

This race is about to go off at Parx
The conditions are for CL25N3L , this horse only has 1 win ?
The purse for non winners of 2 in line 2 is the same $25000 as N3L
why go to the next level?

Attachment 47511

4 6 1
 

The 4 horse wins

I was not sure, I kind of passed the race, I just made a $5 show bet on the 6

Attachment 47512


An interesting note is I made the screenshot in post 1 the 4 was 9/1 from the 4/1 ML.
As soon as I posted, I went to make my show bet on the 6.
Look how the winner #4 dropped all the way down to 2/1

It went back up to 7/2 by the time all was said and done

Attachment 47513

Attachment 47514

Hello Bill,

A quick look see shows that while this is written for NW3L every horse in this race has only won 2 races lifetime. Additionally the # 4 was claimed a few races back and switched to sprints where he achieved his life time best SR. Route in last , today returns to best distance with only 3 sprints starts. All others except for # 5 show many sprints and still NW 2.

Excellent price considering only the 4 & 5 were logical contenders.

I'm not a believer in watching the ups and downs of the tote board. One doesn't know who is betting that money as to whether its smart money or some millionaire who is just having a fun day at the track. Also one would have to know how a stable bets as some bet early, some late and some make small bets as the wagering goes on so as not to alert the public. Even with smart money there are usually 3 contenders in a race and their connections are all going. I don't see watching tote boards action to be a greater force than using a hat pin

I'm only concerned with the odds I'm getting late into the betting.

Mitch44

Race 4
 

I did not bet the race, but if I did would of win dutched the 1 an 4 Tandem race Oct 15. The 1 is definitely a contender off his last race. bill how did the race look on RDSS.

Bob

Hi Mitch
 

Thanks Mitch

Yes I agree, with your tote board thoughts. I use the final odds in my analysis of horses when they next run. Just like the best of the last 3. Looking at patterns of final odds of the last 3-5 races will give a good indication of betting irregularities.

Mitch, yes the rest of the field all had 2 wins, that is to be expected in a race restricted to nonwinners of 3 lifetime.
I am waiting for a few more replies in PM's about the point of the post
My own thoughts were that Pat Farro is a solid trainer at Parx,
I have been following her for many years. She certainly knows who is who
on the backstretch, Perhaps the CL2500 N2l level late in the year
means the recent maiden winners who usually fill CL2500N2L
races at Parx are a superior stock than the older horses who are still eligible
for nonwinners of 3.

Bless
Bill

Skill
 

Hello Bob

Yes my final contenders were 1 4 and 6 and that was the trifecta

Great job by you using the Sartin tools, Tandem concepts.
I am very proud of you that you are able to work races the way you want.


Edit

Great work Bob
It is always nice to see your work

The trainer is excellent and while the only horse with 1 win she probably entered it because the horse is doing so well and there were no NW2 race available at PRX or at other nearby tracks.

This happened to be a weak field for the condition and the # 4 much superior. He has the best SR in last 3 races and also the best average SR for last 2,3 or 4 races after the scratch of the 1A. He also appears to be the #1 3rd Fr horse. Solid contender along with the 5 & 1 .
Mitch44

Thank you Mitch
That is a solid reason why she could have skipped

Much appreciated

Bill

Hello Mitch,

Although I can't post my reasons or paceline method why I made this horse a solid in the money contender. I placed a small show bet on him and the placed,

All I can say is this type of horse is an excellent horse to not leave out of excata and show waging, I suggest people read the 55% Exacta Manual.
If so they will spot the value immediately

Attachment 47515

Highest APV & Class Rating in race, dropping to lowest class level in some time, a horse for course (one of two lifetime wins at Parx 6.5f dirt)...anything else I'm missing?