Exacta & Triacta & Superfecta Help
 

As a weekend Handicapper I am looking for assistance in any way shape or form to help in wining more cash.

My old friend here TY, named the "Splizacta" as I usually get the 1st and 3rd runners.

Does anyone have an ideas - assistance, as the "All Button" gets expensive.

Happy Punting,
Jon

I keep a model for both the winner and place horse for each distance at the tracks I play. If I were to play tris I would also keep 1 for the show horse. This will id the factors and %med that dominant each of the 3 position. Normally the winner and show horse run the same way while the place horse is the opposite. In rare cases you may find the winner and place horse run similar styles. I update my models after every race so as to be ready to adjust if there is a change in patterns.
Tim

Hello Jon;

You’re in good company because “The Hat" Jimmy Bradshaw had the exact same problem.

I recently put up a post to get folks to look more at APV and recommended reading the 55% solution.There are two big factors in the 55% Solution manual that will help you tremendously for that place horse.


I don't play the SF but even in a TRI anything can get Show and even more so for SF. Most hit the all button which I'm not a fan of because it over extends your capital and reduces profit. As you go deeper in vertical bets its best to add more contenders but that should be limited to good contenders not just any horse in the race or necessarily by odds. Care must be taken here because too many contenders can destroy readouts for winners. The object for winners is to get the proper contenders.


Mitch44

Mitch & Tim
 

Thank you for the feedback.

Jon

All good replies. But first answer this question honestly: do you have a positive ROI on you win bets? If the answer is no, I would not even consider vertical wagers until you can earn on your win bets.

Richard

They are tough but not impossible however they are more difficult than DD, P3 etc, The DD is always my first choice.


Mitch44

Mr. Pagine, I’m not a weekender but not a daily player. I look at races in fits and spurts. I consider myself a fan of the game and a hobbyist. I can only speak for myself.

Regarding those pesky exactas I offer the following…

There have been other parallels drawn to poker posted. Mine will be that in poker you gotta plug your leaks. Like playing too many hands, calling too often, not folding, over betting draws, etc.

My participation in the last (final?!) M4$ contest showed me that I do better staying away from exactas. I played the contest with a separate bank. No exotics, just straight bets on the races I played in the contest. Playing exactas would have eaten away at my positive ROI.

I’m saying that, at least for me, exactas are a leak. It was only a small sample, but it was eye opening and prompted an adjustment in my behavior.

So, I started playing exactas with a separate bank. What I found was that on many occasions, when I hit the exacta, the payout yielded a smaller ROI than if I would have taken the money bet on exactas (3 horse box then sprinkle in a couple different combos of the box then throw in a couple horses on the bottom that never seem to get there but may hit the board, then include the favorite because I’ll hate myself if it beats me…and so on and so on) and just made straight bets.

So, I don’t habitually play exactas anymore. It was a habit. Almost an obligation. Now, I only try to look at exactas if I think only a few horses can finish the race AND a couple of those horses have long odds.

It’s all personal taste, risk aversion, resources, personality etc but I’ve been guilty of and have witnessed people not want to make a couple “sizeable” (whatever that means to you) win bets but will dump twice that amount on missed exotics and wonder what happened over and over again.

Good luck in your endeavor

You have to crawl before you can walk. If you cannot pick winners, than you certainly can't get any of the exotic bets. Stick to winners than Daily Doubles. Horizontal exotic bets are easier to hit than vertical bets such as the Exacta or Trifecta. And when you can pick winners well than that’s the time to play tracks that provide rolling Daily Doubles.


Mitch44

Not being anywhere near expert,I think my experience are on the order Mitch is referring to. Over the last year with the so gracious help of Ted, Mitch,Lt1(tim), Bill v. and Mick,I have had a positive return on win bets and the occasional place bets when my picks are over 8-1. I have almost completely abandoned EX, AND TRI'S==I have found them unprofitable for me. I may play DD'S once in a while and pick 3 or 4 but have found thru hard experience,betting win is my thing! Too many variables with EX TRI'S. Even reading the 55% solution has still left me in a losing proposition. Years ago before I gave up the ponies for over 10 years,I would find as Mitch has said,betting quite a bit in the exotics and much less in the win pools---STUPID ON MY PART! Having now being 100% a RDSS user and discovering that I can download Brisnet pp's for free(11.00 for a form?) I am very confident in my ability pick to pick WINNER'S ONLY! My only problem is letting bets go by that are going off less than 9-5. I have found in keeping records of those bets are in the long run just not worth the effort or the money

There's a lot of wisdom in this thread. Vertical exotics are my Kryptonite. I make money with win bets and rolling doubles, then give it all back (and more) trying to hit trifectas and superfectas. :rolleyes: