Steps - Contender, Pacelines, Ranking, Betting Decisions, Record Keeping
 

Hello FTL

I think my stats on win percentages of horses in the top 4 (RX)
are very different than yours, I would like to do a easy race from today
To show you the steps I use from start to the final step, which is sending
the results file to my spreadheet,

The race was race 6 today from Santa Anita.
Its was a short field and the winner only paid $5.40.
I know this is not a hard race to get the winner, but I wanted to
show this to demo the steps I use, not the final price of the winner,
This race is only a 6 horse field. I used it cause it was a easy race to show, Because although it is only 6 horses It still shows 3 horses that were not win contenders. using my flavor of your guidelines.

Here is the entries screen This race is a strait open 25,000 claimer
This is a important step to know the conditionsof each race
In this race knowing the conditions will be very helpful when we look at horse 6.

Again there are no surprises here. The winner was very easy to get .
but it only paid $5.40

Attachment 45650

Contenders and pace lines
 

Horse 1 2 3

I have my notes in the pad inside each pace line.

Attachment 45651

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Attachment 45653

Horses
 

4, 5, 6

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Attachment 45659

Attachment 45660

Readouts
 

In reply to what you write about in your work ups

I enter at least 1 line for every horse, There are tools in RDSS that separate
the horse by groups but I like to rate all the horses
I let the win probability number of RX 3 show me not only the RX3 rankings
I use the probability numbers of RX3 to make final decision on my win contenders
Horse 5 and 6 have 33%, The higher the probability number the more likely the winner .

In this race horse 1, 4, and 5 are win contenders based on their pacelines
and your guidelines ( my flavor)

Horses 2, 3 and 6 are not win contenders

Horse 5 and 6 have a big advantage in win probability percentage of RX3
They each have 33%. However I marked horse 6 as not a win contender

In this race my two win bets were horse 5 and since I have doubts about the 5 moving up to win again I also went for better odds and bet the #1 horse
with 14% win probability

Attachment 45661

win and recording
 

The 5 wins the race

Now that the race is official, I sent the results file to my spreadheet
The winner is ranked 1st .

I get my winner ranked first 30% of all races.
Horses ranked 2nd win 19% and horses ranked third win 15%.

After doing 1700 race the winner is among my to 4 RX3 78%

In races at SA only (1000) races,
the winner is in the top 4 RX 54%

Horses with over 30% win probability win way more races.
I can't get the actual numbers of win percentages automatically from RDSS.
I would have to figure this out myself, RDSS does not calculate the is figure on the spreadsheet
I will have that calculations as soon as I can.

Attachment 45662

So there it is . I always pick a line for every horse.
If I only entered my 3 contenders the win percentage probability numbers
go way up because RDSS is only calculating this number based on 3 horses
in this race not 6. As long as I have every horse in the race rated
I can have more support in horses with the highest win probability percentages and keep accurate records .

Thanks
Bill

The only difference is I would have used the GG horse giving him the last line. Even using him the winner would have come up as my #2 TPR however on odds I would have passed the race. I don't use LRC lines at SA or DMR preferring to use lines from the major circuit, but I have not placed the same restrictions on poly lines. I never asked FTL his thoughts about poly lines in dirt races.

Thank you Bill for laying this out. Although I am a little confused. If #6 is not as you say, a Win contender, how can it still have a 33% probability? I know that the output is based on your line synthesized by RDSS, but there should be a way to downgrade non-contenders who garner high percentages and to upgrade contenders whose computed percentage is actually lower due to the presence of the non-contender in the readout.

Tim

There is
 

Hi Neil and Jeebs

Hi Neil I may have use line 1 myself. If horse 6 showed me anything on any other dirt line. I would like to know FTL's take on this or Bill Lyster , Bill has much more data on SoCal racing than I do.

Hi Tim
You bring up a good point. It is very easy to down grade horses
to non win contenders.

Ted uses this option all the time, It is going to take me awhile to adjust
to it. In this screen shot, I have moved the 6 2 and 3 out of the win
contender area . Now RDSS is saying the winner, horse # 5 gets a 57
probability. Horse# 6 now only has a 17

Attachment 45663

Question Bill:


"After doing 1700 race the winner is among my to 4 RX3 78%" Bill I believe you reported this stat before using the best of the last 3 comparable in testing for Ted.


In your post here are you saying this is a result of FTL guidelines for pace line selection and his technique?


Your friend,
Mitch44

I also have a little reluctance to match up GG horses with Socal types because the poly makes them look so sustained. I overlooked the neg drop, just careless. I notice that it was not claimed.

See race chart and Segments screen below:

Attachment 45665

Segments
The 1st fraction on the poly makes the 6 look very slow and even though its 2F is best of the group, it still appears to be 4.6 behind at 2C, but in the real race it was only a head behind and only lost by 1 L+nk. TPR wise it was tops, but again the GGF influence is problematical. One other teensy factor is that its a Hollendorfer horse and I probably have too much respect for his moves.

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