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-   -   Pizzolla and "Two Excuse" method (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11422)

Jeebs 01-08-2018 11:12 AM

Pizzolla and "Two Excuse" method
 
In my brief instances of free time in the mornings, I've been reading Pizzolla's "Handicapping Magic" on the iPad. Lots of good (and provocative) ideas, as is the Pizzolla norm. One chapter that caught my eye was the "Two Excuse" method of paceline selection. As the method suggests, if there are two valid reasons to go beyond the last line, you skip to the next line and apply the same logic until you can no longer justify going beyond the line. At that point, you take the best race (Pizzolla uses Pace Balanced Speed - PBS and Projected Power Fraction) within that "form cycle window" as your paceline. Pizzolla's logic is that oftentimes, that method will net better mutuels and exotics because the user will be using lines that others may summarily dismiss due to various reasons.

In my work with Mitch last year, we were often using the best perceptor over a similar distance (within a furlong, preferably a half furlong) and surface (no muddy/sloppy tracks on dirt), providing that the line was not completely conformed to the horse's normal E/L distribution pattern. In a sense, the logic is similar - opening up the PPs to snag more of the "under the radar" runners that standard conventions may disagree with.

Does anyone here have experience with the teachings of "Handicapping Magic" and if so, what were your takeaways?

Lt1 01-08-2018 01:31 PM

Hi Tim. I read his book and also used Black Magic software trying to convince a youngster that RDSS is better. The 2 excuse method is similar to what Mitch and I have been using for yrs except we only need 1 to go back past a line. It has worked very well for us. Just be careful as to what you consider a valid excuse. I also added to my list not using lifetime best lines for older horses[5up] and I'm leery of using speed ratings on younger horses that are more then 5 points then anything else in its chart especially if it's not the last line. If it's the last line I look for a reason such as dist,trainer,equipment ,or surface switch. If I don't see 1 I look for it's next best line and see how both rate in RDSS. I find legit contenders usually have multi lines that keepthem in the top 3.
Tim

raceman5 01-08-2018 03:27 PM

How
 
How do u know if its a lifetime best for 5 yr olds and up, when we only have 10 lines to look at in the PP's? And believe me not trying to be a smart ass.

Bob

Mitch44 01-08-2018 03:46 PM

Jeeps: You have my pace line selection technique down pat. I have been using it for years so to speak but the Preceptor has honed it to a more efficient method, the reason is that sometimes we don't see visually into the line ( or internal moves) like Preceptor does.


I have been following Sartin's concept of selecting a line for years and have adapted to his evolution in doing so as he adapted. That means I don't religiously use the last line which is so 1986 or so with the original pace line manual.


His last recommendation on tape was to never to go back past line # 5 because the horse may not be the same horse. Also many years of research and thousands of selected lines showed the bulk to be within that parameter. Actually that research showed that the further back the fewer times a line is correct or in other words its closer to the top of the chart. The reason for that is the form factor which is greatly effected by recency or the horse may not be the same horse that ran that line.


There are exceptions to everything and if one can't grasp those exceptions than I highly recommended sticking to rules or Sartin teachings of never going past the 5th line. I could argue a last line and the horse may not be the same. We see this with cheap claimers a lot. They are unsound and can't run or put together two good races.
I access all horses best surface and distance and don't expect a horse to perform its best unless its entered under those conditions which is a huge reason I get away with it. And I have specific questions for layoffs to deal with that.


I don't advocate the Pizzolla two excuse method which is designed to get better prices as it forces the issue and that's not good. I go back based on Sartin guidelines which doesn't force the issue and isn't designed for price, its designed to give the horse its best chance to win and not hold conditions against it that it doesn't prefer. If they could talk they would tell the trainers where to enter them. Quite a difference indeed. I would not recommend any Pizzolla method for picking a pace line.
Mitch44

Mitch44 01-08-2018 04:06 PM

I only open up the PP's to get a line as the PP's or line tells me to go to another line Jeebs.

Pizzolla will use a 5 F turf race for a dirt route (taking its best in the chart) which I would never do that. His line picking is something I would never condone.



Also having tried his BM for a 90 day trial I would not recommend it at all. His pace numbers are the worse I've ever seen and Phase one or TPR are much netter and would outperform them. For a guy that started with Sartin he sure never evolved as far as pace numbers. I believe the flaw is in adjusting the 3rd FR or his PBS numbers. Adjusting those is not adjusting them to todays matchup but he adjusts them to the matchup of that race which is not todays matchup.

If your using RDSS you are using the best out there for pace handicapping.
Mitch44

Lt1 01-08-2018 05:01 PM

Bob that's a very good question. I use Bris pps so it's in the lifetime box. In the trackmaster pps I should have said the highest sr showing in the 10 lines, which is in bold print, and may not be a lifetime best but I won't use it. Either way I've found over the years that older horses, with the exception of very high class animals, do not repeat those type of efforts. It's just my own personal quirk and is not part of Docs teachings and in no way am I telling folks not to use those lines if they are comfortable doing so. I would recommend that they might want to keep records of how those horses perform when they use those lines.
Tim

raceman5 01-08-2018 06:58 PM

Thanks
 
Tim, makes sense

DontSayDont 01-09-2018 08:28 AM

Omission of material can be as misleading as misleading statements. Pizzolla in his book DOES NOT advocate just a "Two Excuse" method of pace line selection. He firsts states use the first line, unless. Similar to the Sartin method in the paceline manual. He gives this a mnenomic (sp?), LASST. If we look at what the letters stand for, LAyoff, Surface, Structure, Trouble. Structure I believe is sprint to route, route to sprint etc. Trouble is major trouble but not 3 wide, boxed in or comments that may or may not have hindered the progress of the horse in the race.

Using just those 4 that he mentions is used by many handicappers would put the paceline back at the 5th race. Very similar to what is promoted in one of the above posts.

What then follows in the book is what he calls the dirty dozen. Eight more minor reasons to think about going back another race but just one reason is not enough. The handicapper should have 2 reasons from those eight to continue going back a race. He also mentions that those eight are HIS reasons and other handicappers might have others and to use what works for you.

Just to clarify. I am not advocating anyone use his methods and I personally DO NOT use any of his software but purchased his book because when I originally purchased The New Pace Makes The Race it did not include the writings by Pizzolla and I felt extremely disappointed as I had read what Bill V. wrote about the fulcrum horse that was described in the original book along with other teachings I hoped would be rewarding to read.

I am pleased with the information that I have read, just as I am pleased with the information I have read in the other 15 - 20 books I have purchased. There is quality information in every one and there are reasons to disagree with other information given within those bindings.


Ray

Mitch44 01-09-2018 09:49 AM

Ray you're absolutely correct about keeping an open mind and even the worse book on handicapping can provide a nugget. Those that are without progressive thoughts to horse racing are at a disadvantage to this ever changing game.


Jeebs asked for experience and the take away from that experience. Both LT1 and I have tried BM therefore have that experience to expound on it.


Your correct in that the pace line selection within BM is complicated. it'll take parts of different lines and combine them , use lines that aren't specific to todays conditions etc. Regardless of which line used his pace numbers are not good at all. I've recorded data on them and compared them to others and they don't hold up. Also through testing I came up with just as many longshots and actually beat BM and it was free whereas BM is very expensive($1,500+) plus the downloads and additional costs.
A longshot has to have something going for it besides just being above a 5 horse arc. and long odds. They are not all created equal. Anyone can create their own arc and apply the same principles and save a lot of betting money.


IMO BM is a crude form of the matchup that couldn't match up with Bradshaw's matchup. Bradshaw and Sartin honed this to a fine art whereas Pizzola really is about where it was back in the late 80's Bradshaw never believed in the Fulcrum and said so at seminars.
IMO and takeaway from my experience is to apply Sartin concepts and teaching for success, especially when it comes to pace line selection. Good luck.
Mitch44

Lt1 01-09-2018 09:56 AM

Good post Ray. I believe that each of us must engage the best computer in the world our brain along with common sense and our own experiences when it comes to whether to excuse performances and to go back further for a line. The Docs' missive about not going back more then 5 lines is solid and will keep one on pretty safe footing, but even then there are some reasons, based on my experience, when I will go back further. Those times in my case usually involve turf races. I would advise most to stick with Docs guideline of staying within the last 5 until such time their records indicate when they may want to become more daring.
Tim


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