Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   My Fort Erie win using Energy (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11899)

Bill V. 10-18-2018 12:25 PM

My Fort Erie win using Energy
 
5 Attachment(s)
Using RDSS, I sent my lines from my Fort Erie race from this post

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11897

Here are my lines and the Energy Generator

Attachment 47357



The winner, horse 2 is lone or counter energy horse,
The two has the best 3rd fraction. The FX readouts and total energy
top 3 are very close, this shows me the winner is not a one move horse.




Next, this is the screen that shows how the races is variegated.
The Variegate says sustained. The Paragon A and B point to the winner
horse 2


Attachment 47359

Attachment 47361


Next are the bar graphs, Since the race is variegated Sustained
The most likely winner comes from Paragon B
With the best 3rd fraction and a supporting total energy and FX
The winner was an easy bet at 21/1

Attachment 47360

Mitch44 10-18-2018 03:08 PM

Bill,


Wouldn't the 2,4,6, come up as the top 3 horses also using Sartin's best of the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface and best Preceptor?


Mitch44

Bill V. 10-18-2018 03:22 PM

will check it out
 
Hello Mitch

Nice question, I will set my RDSS to defaults and post my results
I think it may work out

Be right back

Hey, Mitch thanks for the good wishes
I am still in bed these days but The beach is calling looking for me.
I hope to get out soon

Bill V. 10-18-2018 03:42 PM

Default
 
3 Attachment(s)
HELLO Mitch,

Out of the box just pushing some buttons with RDSS set to default
and -15 to+15 on DTV the race is a real mess wit distances and surfaces

So, in this case, some human input is needed


BLBL AND RX2

Attachment 47364

Attachment 47365

Mitch44 10-18-2018 06:45 PM

My human input Bill would be to toss the # 1 & 7 as their clear routers and todays surface is also suspect.

My lines would be: 2 L 2 , 3 L 3 ,4 L 5, 5 L 4, 6 L 3. We agree on a couple lines here but I use Sartin 's tool of the Preceptor from those 3 at a comparable distance and surface.



Glad you are doing better Bill . That surf and sun just may do something that medicine can't. Do what you want Bill as you have earned it after a very long career on the road.


Travel where destiny leads you,
Mitch

shoeless 10-18-2018 08:14 PM

Hi Bill

Thanks for the workup of the race using Energy, nice hit.

Feel better soon

Jeff

Bill V. 10-18-2018 11:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shoeless (Post 118060)
Hi Bill

Thanks for the workup of the race using Energy, nice hit.

Feel better soon

Jeff

Thank You Jeff

Bill V. 10-18-2018 11:29 PM

Mitch
 
2 Attachment(s)
Mitch here is the RX and BLBL screen using your "human Input"

The winner #2 ranks 3rd
This is where water capping comes in, The top 3 horse are 4 6 and 2
The 2 went off at 21/1 so it should be bet. With Doc's later Instructions
any horse in the top 3 should only be judged by the odd

Attachment 47366

Attachment 47367

Bill V. 10-18-2018 11:39 PM

Now lets see how energy does
 
4 Attachment(s)
Mitch's lines

First is the Energy Generator

Attachment 47368


Nexxt are the Primary Factors, Paragons, and Variegate

The race is variegated EARLY

The 6 is rated best on Paragon A the 3 is best on the counter energy paragon
B
Attachment 47369

Attachment 47370

Last is the paragon A and B Bars
The race is variegated Early and the winner is clearly rated 2nd
on both paragon A and B
Attachment 47371

So a Sartin methodology user looking for 65% winners from the top 2
would get win .exacta, and trifecta.

GS
Bill

Mitch44 10-19-2018 10:12 AM

Bill:
Yes Sartin was correct in that any horse in your top 3 going off at 8-1 and higher is at least a $2 bet. Also the EX. and Tri. is also there. Additionally he said there are many cases where more than I line will get a horse.Money management is such a key ingredient to this recipe.


Separating your top 4 horses with other tool within the program and interpreting readouts are also keys. In this case the 2 & 4 both have good TT and HE readouts which mean they can run two good fractions and have tremendous closing ability. The # 6 is all early and the extra 1/2 F in this race doesn't support him to hold his speed and finish. Users need to look at more than just 1 screen to get winners.

Thanks Bill, great example of race.


Mitch44


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