Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   CT test (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11215)

Bill V. 07-07-2017 09:38 PM

CT test
 
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Just trying something here

not expecting much

race 6 CT

Attachment 43627

Bill V. 07-07-2017 09:51 PM

missed in a photo
 
2 Attachment(s)
I took a shot with the 5 !

Just missed in a photo at 7/1 darn

Attachment 43628

Attachment 43629

Mitch44 07-08-2017 07:48 AM

A very low price for a horse that has to step up 12 lengths and at the same time stretch out to 6,5 F. That line indicates he can stretch out another furlong but still I wouldn't put him in the hunt. Either a bad line or the horse improved tremendously from something, I.e. a trainer change or equ. change, Rather an odd circumstance without a reason. If none than just not a gettable race. To have to prove all that at those odds would be a toss for me. Keep doing what your doing Bill.
Mitch44

Bill V. 07-08-2017 08:55 AM

same page
 
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Right on Mitch

I took line 1 But really I had no interest in horse 3

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shoeless 07-08-2017 09:24 AM

Bill,

Nice call on the 5 hope you had some place money on it

Just out of curiosity how would the 3 look if you took that 2nd race back


Jeff

Mitch44 07-08-2017 11:16 AM

After seeing his chart I would have used line # 3. That difference between line 2 & L 3 at 6F is very deceptive because of the beaten lengths. With L 3 being a full second faster at 6F its equals to about 6 lg. so its a much better line. Plus its total energy is better for L3. Additionally L1 was muddy so I wouldn't have used it.

A lesson I gave Jeebs was if your going to extract a line from a longer distance always choose the one with the fastest internal fractions. Burn that one into your brain housing group. Of course why worry about all that and just use the computer by running both lines and see which comes out better, we are allowed to cheat. So do it. Without doing it I'm sure L 3 would be best.

Would L 3 would make him a contender ? I don't know as I didn't download the race. I did check Bris PP & found he was dropping in class however his trainer was only 3% with layoff horses and that was 3% of 38 horses, definitely not good. His APV here is very good. If he did come up with L 3 at his odds he's a risky bet with the layoff & trainer stats and a toss. I believe Bill made the correct bet.
Mitch44

Lt1 07-08-2017 12:20 PM

Bills' point about no races or workouts is well taken. I keep records on this type of negative flaw and can tell you these types don't win very often and are usually a toss unless all the contenders have serious defects. Also its' form before the layoff was poor and as Mitch points out a poor trainer record with laid off horses adds up to 3 strikes. Toss.
Tim

shoeless 07-08-2017 01:09 PM

Just to clarify I am not saying Bill picked the wrong line on the 3

He did a great job of getting the 5

Bill V. 07-09-2017 07:53 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by shoeless (Post 110579)
Bill,

Nice call on the 5 hope you had some place money on it

Just out of curiosity how would the 3 look if you took that 2nd race back


Jeff

Hi Jeff

Sorry for the delay. Once again I played the good soldier. Because of the
4th of July being on a Tuesday, Most of the other drivers wanted to take
an extra long weekend last Sat-Sun -Mon- Tuesday
So that meant lots of freight got backed up and they needed extra drivers for yesterday. I was already at Del Mar waiting for race 1 when they called.
Can you PLEASE run up to Sacramento -NOW!

So I said okay, I got extra pay plus the regular load fee so It all works out
Maybe next weekend I will have off,

Now to the race, I figure it really did not matter, which line I used. All horse 3's LPR"s are too weak. Horses when in form run pretty consistent TPR numbers.
For horse 3 to compete ( normally) in this match up. I figured it had to improve back almost 20 points on TPR, Where is is going to get that energy?
It only has a slight advantage on EPR but its way deficient in LPR. If it saves
EPR, will it pick up 10- 15 points of LPR? I did not see this happening.
Because of the 55 day layoff with no works, I just figured to look elsewhere.
The 5 just missed, One more step/jump past the wire and the 5 passes the slowing 3
and I win :\

Good Job by the way on race 4 from Parx !!

Bill

Attachment 43645

Mitch44 07-10-2017 08:21 AM

I agree Bill with you in that where does he pick up 10 t0 12 lengths with L 1 or L3. This horse could possible be a 5th contender on class but would end up a toss. There is no way off the layoff and class this horse could be in form, obviously the trainer was working him away from the public and even at that his record is atrocious.

You would have to go back to L 6 to make this horse a contender and you would be violating the Doc's rules for picking pace lines. Those rules were designed to put the percentages on your side. Lesson here is stick to the percentages and keep them on your side. Good analysis Bill. All races are just not get-able.
Mitch44


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