RDSS BLBL Question
 

Should the BLBL score be independent of the other horses scores?

I've been playing around with a few races trying to get a better instinctive feel for some of the ratings and came across this odd situation...AQU 3rd today 1/22/17...

I've had Mark T with ranks 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 in the primary factors but with different combinations of horses (each with primary LS of 20), I've get BL Scores of 18.3, 19.3, and 20.3.

Does this make sense?

Well, no - ALL paceline dependent factors in RDSS are dependent on how a given horse compares (ranks) against the other horses in the analysis set.

Since BL is a weighed composite of rankings of the 7 Primary factors it comprises, let's take just 1 Factor: TPR (or CPR) rank: which is itself a sum of EPR+ LPR, then that sum ranked. If one horse has a TPR rank (check the TPR Tab) - say a 3, and another horse is ranked 2 (i.e. its TPR is higher than the the 3rd ranked horse), then - that rank 2 gets more weight in the BLBL calculation than the rank 3. Continue that process for all 7 Factors.

So, you can see, even without tinkering with which paceline you choose for a horse, horses' weighted BLBL numbers will be relative to each other. If a horse scratches, the BL may well change (the scratched horse with rank 1s and 2s will cause lower ranked horses to inherit those higher ranks and adjust their BLBL score). If you demote a horse to the Secondary group or Non-Contender group (or remove them entirely from the Analysis set - NOT RECOMMENDED) - same effect on the weighted ranking process. Etc.

BLBL is dependent on 1) which line you choose for the horse (or let the software choose) and 2) which other horses' ranks a given horse is being compared to.

Ted

I understand that, but I'm seeing some (what I consider to be strange behavior)...for example, a horse is ranked 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 for the 7 primary factors - I would think that as long as the horse remains with those ranks, the score should stay the same, but, as I change the horses that are secondary candidates, the score of the horse, whose ranks stay unchanged at 2 3 3 3 3 3 3, changes.

Also, I thought I understood that secondary contenders are ignored for the scoring of primary contenders, however, I've seen a case where scratching of a secondary contender changes the score of the primary contender.

Seems like most of the cases that aren't making sense to me are related to ties in rankings.

Perhaps some details? For example (using default chosen pacelines):

Attachment 42087

FWIW - Rx (from Testing V2.1)

Attachment 42088

Could you use your own chosen pacelines lines and Contender groupings to illustrate your question? Often much more illuminating than generalities.

Ted

I've managed to lose the choices that were causing the confusing I referenced above, but here's another example from the same race...

If you look at American Mink, in the both examples the ranks are 1 4 3 1 4 4 4. I can understand when the BL Score is 18.0, but it doesn't make sense to me that adding another contender would improve his BL Score. I don't see where those 2.25 extra points are coming from.

This is particularly "troubling" when you look at the BL Odds which have gone from 2.5 to 1.8.

Thoughts?

My
 

Question is, why are you using a turf line for a dirt race?

Bob

I'm not handicapping the race, I'm trying to get a better understanding of the of the readouts and the values.

Raceman
 

There might be a issue with your settings ,
and Raceman,Bob maybe on to something withhis question about using the 6.0 turf line. Maybe there are too many adjustments using such a non coparable pace line ? , I doubt that is the issue but lets see.

I use the full 50% DYV and I use Validator mode

Using your lines with my settings.

Attachment 42096


Now when I move the 2 from a secondary contender up to a main contender
the blbl looks like this

Attachment 42097

Now just for curiosity, I changed horse 3 to a dirt route -line 5

Attachment 42098

Now moving the 2 up

Attachment 42099

Bill,

Using your settings, I feel like the following lines are inconsistent with other calculations. These don't bother me as much as the logic inconsistency from my last post, but they still seem inconsistent.

Also, regardless of adjustments, turf lines, etc., I thought BLBL comes from the seven primary factors. Since we can see what the primary factor values are and what their ranks are, even if there were problems with too many adjustments, the problems should show up in creating the primary factors, not in the BLBL which should be using the already calculated primary factors as inputs.

Example 1:
Bailiv 3 1 3 4 2 2 2 = 20.5, should higher - compare to
Example 2:
Bailiv 4 1 3 4 2 2 2 = 20.3, usually shifting from a 4 to a 3 is worth more than 0.25

Example 3:
Mark T 1 3 3 2 3 3 3 = 21.0, should be closer to
Example 4:
Mark T 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 = 20.0, shifting from a 1 to a 2 is usually only worth 0.25