Route Line in a sprint race
 

This horse is the subject of a posted race
from 11/15

I think its important to show something about figure handicaaping


This horse was ranked third on BLBL
it was 80/1. line 3 the 8.0 route line was selected
yet the horse had 2 sprint races one of them was a win +


The winner of the race was ranked 4th on BLBL #14
Line 5 was used

Now I ask this question, is it possible that the horse rated third
because of the route to sprint adjustments ?

just rating this horse against itself we see the route line
rated over the 2 sprint lines one of which was a win
So is it possibly the reason it rates so well against the field ?
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If the theroy of using a route line in a sprint race
says make sure the router will be close at the second call
and has shown success at a sprint in the past.
Well it has won as a sprinter, Why not use that line?
Will it be close at the call against todays runners ?
Not againt the other pacelines chosen.
It will be 14 back at the first fraction It will make a move
in the second fraction but still be back by 6.8
on top of that will it have enough time in the third fraction
( in a sprint ) to pass the 5 9 and 12 who all have better 3rd fractions


What is the excuse for race 1 Is a 5.5 sprint on poly any more non
comparable than a 8.0 route or a 6.0 mud line ?

Anyway the 1 was ranked third. This why when people read
in the follow ups about the third ranked horses being the best value.
Just make sure your third ranked horse are contenders
and use care when entering a route line into a sprint race

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Actually, I think this thread should be about “CONTENDER SELECTION” rather than line selection, but since Bill posted it, I’ll respond, since BOTH issues are in play here.

First, this horse IS NOT A CONTENDER! It has one race back after a layoff of 393 days and that certainly WAS NOT a good race. That race provides NO EVIDENCE that going back for a line would be the correct thing to do.

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The horse is a NON-CONTENDER!! NO LINE should be selected.

Second, why was the line selected in this case used?
Let me be clear, I AM NOT a fan of the “best of last three, comparable” method of line selection.
Also, I am not a fan of the idea that “there are no rules”.
See, the phrase “there are no rules” is the most ABUSED phrase in the methodology. It is the ONE RULE, and it is a rule, that everyone remembers if they don’t remember anything else.

Under the guise of “there are no rules”, why pay attention to the guideline “best of last three, comparable”? Just eliminate the word “comparable” .
For many, the “best of last three, comparable” becomes the “best of last three, REGARDLESS!!!”
Let’s use this horse as an example.

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It doesn’t matter where you look at the SR, the route line shows as “the best of last three”, but it is NOT COMPARABLE! Why is it being used?
WHY is any race that is well over a year old being used?
If the last line, the recent line, was that good that it would make you consider going back for a line, then why not just use the last line?

There are a lot of races to choose from every day. If the race you are looking at doesn't have solid contenders with solid lines to choose from, move on to another race.

Using horses like this and using lines like this serve no other purpose than to cloud the issue. Horse racing is hard enough, why cloud it further?

ahhh yes, great point and analysis "FTL". i missed the days off for some reason.
and i missed 14 winning as one might have used the the MSW winning line as it was at CD.

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With regards to the use of this paceline, the last race was the first race back after a long layoff. I chose to give the horse the benefit of the doubt since the ADJ, sr in that race was the same as the third race back a 75 rating.
I chose to use the 2nd race back because the adj. time and beaten lengths were within the parameters that I have found to be reliable for a router dropping back. Also in the Original route line the horse was within 3 lengths at the second call.
As far as this horse being a contender , FTL is right in this case.
The winner as I explained to Bill in my other posts under contest entries was actually considered my third selection and was played.

Each of us have our own set of guidelines for selecting contenders, Mine works for me, as I am sure FTLs work for him.
I am not trying to impose my guidelines on anyone, My personal goal is to get as many races as I can down to 3 horses to bet for win AND maintain as many good priced winners as possible in that group.
So far I have been successful.
I know that I do get a non contender in many of my races but that is why we all continue to improve.