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-   -   GP10 28Dec18 (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12004)

mick 12-28-2018 09:48 AM

GP10 28Dec18
 
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My initial interest in this race was because my friend Don E (aka the tazzerbobo) owns #10 Rumbago. For some, Rumbago would be an immediate toss because he's 20-1 ML. However, this is a big field of chronic losers and Rumbago is lightly raced with 5 ITM finishes in 8 races. He also has 2 turf wins at GP. He's returning in 12 days after a poor showing on dirt and when I line through his two dirt starts, I see that he's 4 for 6 ITM on grass. Now my interest is piqued.

mick 12-28-2018 10:16 AM

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There are certainly negatives which is why he's 20-1. His best races have been when he's on the lead and he's breaking from post position 10. Not good. However, most of the early speed in this race will scratch out as "Also Eligibles," leaving just the #7 who is an Early on turf. Those two should clear the field and be on the lead down the backstretch. At 12-1, #7 is also lightly raced and returning in 22 days after a credible 4th place finish in a 12-horse field on GP's turf. Can one of them hang on and win? The #11 (4-1) also interests me. He's a Sustained with a good late kick who seems to have found a home on turf. The #12, #9 and #3 are dismal with a combined record of 3 for 61.

mick 12-28-2018 10:26 AM

So, the plan is to make small win bets on #7 and #10 if they have double-digits odds at post; play a small exacta box with #7, #10, and #11; and play a bigger exacta #11 over #7 and #10 and backwheel it. If one of my Earlies win, I don't think the other will run second, but it could happen so that's why I'll box them.

Of course, they could all run out of the money, too. :rolleyes:

raceman5 12-28-2018 11:35 AM

Gp r10
 
Thanks for posting this race Mick. Me I like the Dec 6 Tandem race. The 1-5-6-7 come out of this race. A ton of speed even with the scratches. I think the 7 is going to get caught up in the speed dual. So I like 5-6. And box a 1-5-6 ex. box as the 1 is ML 20/1.

Bob

mick 12-28-2018 05:21 PM

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The #10 went off at 45-1 and the #7 at 32-1. They broke well, saved ground around the clubhouse turn and followed #1 down the backstretch. The #7 made a move on the turn, had a short lead at the head of the stretch and didn't give it up until the last furlong. Short of cashing a ticket, that's about all I could ask from those two longshots. My third horse, #11 (2-1), showed a nice turn of foot late and won, cruising to the wire.

That was fun and I appreciated Bob's comments. He was right in that the pace was a bit too fast for my Earlies. After 4 furlongs, the leader was :47 and change and I needed something more like :48 and a few ticks.

rmath 12-28-2018 08:34 PM

GP race
 
Mick, did you notice that the 11 was the only horse that had all 4 numbers.
While I do not play Turf races this horse should win better than 50 % of the time.
Rmath

fasthorses 12-29-2018 01:32 AM

Quote:

Mick, did you notice that the 11 was the only horse that had all 4 numbers.
rmath, could you please share what "...all 4 numbers" refers to.

CheckMark 12-29-2018 08:35 AM

Maybe PL, CSR,rX1 and TE?

Lt1 12-29-2018 08:40 AM

The 4 numbers refer to PL,BPP,CSR,VDC ranks on the RX screen. Horse that have a ranking in all 4 factors are a prime win horses. In the last 100 races I capped 66 were won by a horse with all 4 numbers. Another 13 were won by horses with 3 numbers.
Tim

mick 12-29-2018 09:28 AM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by rmath (Post 118835)
Mick, did you notice that the 11 was the only horse that had all 4 numbers.
While I do not play Turf races this horse should win better than 50 % of the time.
Rmath

Yes, sir, I did. You taught me well. I'm always looking for them.


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