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-   -   Paceline Question (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8461)

wagercapper 07-06-2012 07:42 AM

Paceline Question
 
I was studying the sample races I downloaded and there is one from MNR (MNR0602- prob 2008?) where you used a sloppy/muddy line for 2 horses, including the winner. Now I NEVER would have done so in Validator (per Doc).
Is there something different in RDSS, or are we relying more on Total Energy?

Thanks,
Paul (wagercapper)

Ted Craven 07-06-2012 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wagercapper (Post 81191)
I was studying the sample races I downloaded and there is one from MNR (MNR0602- prob 2008?) where you used a sloppy/muddy line for 2 horses, including the winner. Now I NEVER would have done so in Validator (per Doc).
Is there something different in RDSS, or are we relying more on Total Energy?

Thanks,
Paul (wagercapper)

Paul,

There are NO differences between Val4 and RDSS in Val4 mode (except for occasional rounding differences) - the ordering and relative rankings of all major compounded factors should present you with the same decision making information.

All pacelines (in Val4 and RDSS) are adjusted for Daily Track Variant (among other adjustments), so if the wetness of a track on a given day is affecting the final times posted on aggregate, lines on those days will be compensated for their presumed slowness. This is an inexact science ...

I myself am in the habit of mostly disregarding designated surface condition if the horse ran fairly, and completely disregarding, if the horse was an Early horse. I believe you will find as many examples of muddy/sloppy tracks where the DTV was near 0 (normal final times) as you will where the DTV was very SLOW (i.e. > ~10 DTV). The extra designation of 'track condition' (a hold over from ancient times when there was no reliable means of determining DTV) can often make the decision of line selection a fuzzy one, and is certainly one of the high profile data items that the general public relies upon to decide if a horse should be either penalized, or forgiven for poor performance - rather than relying on adjusted Total Energy for the horse or examining the adjusted Pace of Race the horse faced. And following typical public decision factors will likely result in reduced mutuels in the long run.

The most important thing, IMO, is that pacelines be chosen consistently so you can compare your decision making from one race to the next (since race outcome is subject to chaotic events in the short term - i.e. you still lose a bet even if you made a consistent and rigorous decision). If your guidance, and results from observing your own past performance, is to avoid using off track lines, then I suggest rigorously continuing to do so. However, may I suggest you study the mutuel outcome of bets using pacelines on horses who ran a good race on wet surfaces and whose Total Energy numbers indicate that was a good (and sufficiently recent) line. There may be a few longer priced horses available.

In summary, this question is purely a matter of analytical approach - up to the individual - not a difference between Validator and RDSS.

Ted


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