Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up (http://paceandcap.com/forums/index.php)
-   2008 (http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=62)
-   -   Aftermath / Thoughts? (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4701)

RichieP 10-26-2008 06:54 AM

Aftermath / Thoughts?
 
The Euro's absolutely kicked ass both on the Pro Ride and turf. Yesterday was a joke as our horses basically were overmatched in practically every race.

Expect more of the same next year possibly worse as the venue will remain the same and the Euro's will have seen the destruction they did and more quality runners will be coming here.

Matching horses and pace readouts will be meaningless as winner after winner shows Euro lines with no fractional segments.

Here is a quote from Doc Sartin years ago on what he considered a "playable/workable race". Food for thought.

"A playable race is one where EVERY entrant has at least 3 North American running lines to evaluate".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6_NGtIr14c

lsosa54 10-26-2008 09:04 AM

1-The Timeform ratings were fairly useful in determining whether the foreign contingent would be competitive from a performance ratings standpoint based on final time. Whether you used CJ's conversions (Timeform to Beyer) he posted up at PA here:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...39&postcount=2

or used the handy conversion chart seen here (seemed to give you some slightly lower numbers):

http://www.chef-de-race.com/pfs/comp...speed_figs.htm

,they were certainly useful. Unfortunately, they don't include Trackmaster speed ratings.

Of course, you had to believe that the foreigners would take to the Pro Ride, as most had not run over it. Interesting what Curlin's trainer said: his biggest concern obviously was whether he would take to the Pro Ride. He said that training well over it, as Curlin's workout showed, doesn't mean you'll run well over it. Interesting. He said that first time around when he saw Curlin off the bit, he knew he was in trouble.

There might have also been some vulnerability in the steroid free version of Curlin, as it seemed he was just a notch below the monster he was before he was taken off the Winstrol in January. In any case, many kudos have to go to Jess Jackson for placing sportsmanship and the horse's well being first.

2-You certainly could not do a numerical pace analysis, but if you read the comments line on most pp's ( I had BRIS and DRF), you could get an idea of where these horses typically ran positionally. A rough idea, but an idea. I also figured that running positionally early in Europe still may not mean that they would be "up front" even on the Pro Ride, due to the much slower paces on the turf courses in Europe, where they really save themselves for the final quarter. To me, most of these guys would be running in the stretch.

JimG 10-26-2008 09:06 AM

The Breeder's Cup reaffirmed a shift in the way I now approach the races. This shift started about 3 years ago. In the past, I had my favorite tracks I liked to play. I would download pp's for 2 or 3 tracks I liked to play, look at my software printouts, and proceed to bet most of the races offered at those tracks. Some days I won, many days I lost.

Nowadays, I download pp's for most racetracks and cherry-pick races looking for value. I still may bet 10-15 races a day but that will likely cover 6-9 tracks. This has been really successful for me.

Breeder's Cup and Kentucky Derby Days are the 2 days I bet only 1 race track. Yesterday, I played just about every race in the Breeder's Cup and lost money over all. I played much less than I usually do, knowing I probably would lose but I wanted to "enjoy" my day watching the Breeder's Cup on TV and playing from home. As always there was a price to "enjoyment". Today, I go back to investing.

Hope everyone has a great day.

Jim

Bill V. 10-26-2008 09:10 AM

The Sartin Methodology
 
Quote:

Here is a quote from Doc Sartin years ago on what he considered a "playable/workable race". Food for thought.

"A playable race is one where EVERY entrant has at least 3 North American running lines to evaluate"
That the way I look at these days Fun Exciting but
I have to keep my swing sharp for the rest of the year

TIME TO GET SERIOUS Follow up # 6

jms62 10-26-2008 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP (Post 42283)
The Euro's absolutely kicked ass both on the Pro Ride and turf. Yesterday was a joke as our horses basically were overmatched in practically every race.

Expect more of the same next year possibly worse as the venue will remain the same and the Euro's will have seen the destruction they did and more quality runners will be coming here.

Matching horses and pace readouts will be meaningless as winner after winner shows Euro lines with no fractional segments.

Here is a quote from Doc Sartin years ago on what he considered a "playable/workable race". Food for thought.

"A playable race is one where EVERY entrant has at least 3 North American running lines to evaluate".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6_NGtIr14c

I had a really good day yesterday focusing on the P3's.. As far as the Euros went I knew I would have to pay up to include them because I didn't have very much to handicap. There were a few that I was able to throw out with confidence but I just paid more for my tickets... The pools are just too big not to be playing Breeders cup day IMHO...

racetrackjohnny 10-26-2008 10:49 AM

Running style and post position are major factors at OSA. Something to use to pare down contenders with.

Looking back at result charts not many were won on or near the lead earlier this week. The ones that were were mostly maiden races.
Front runners were up against it.

Outside the marathon, which at 1 1/2 isnt relevant to a bias discussion for lack of data, Midshipman was the only runner who held a lead from top of stretch home.

The 1-3 posts have been death, only Zenyatta was able to overcome and she has the running style that negates post, and best in the world talent.

This bias held up for Fri cup races and again Saturday.

Ted Craven 10-26-2008 10:55 AM

I also consider that i 'paid a fee' for the enjoyment of being in the (win) pools the two days, but I lost money for the first time in several years by betting against the Euros. I think European trainers may be figuring out better how to ship horses and who to ship, and I suspect we'll be seeing more and more top flight competition from across the pond.

This makes it difficult for me to employ an incremental energy approach to analysis (i.e. Sartin Methodology) and I wonder if I will simply be more selective in future BC races. Doesn't dim my enthusiasm for my chosen method, because race after race I found my horses coming in the money, or winning (or ranking on top) those times when mostly everyone had ratable lines.

My favourite races and winners of the weekend was a toss up between Zenyatta and Midnight Lute, but the whole process was quite enjoyable (now that the discouragement at losing $ has worn off :)).

Ted

lsosa54 10-26-2008 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ted Craven (Post 42290)

My favourite races and winners of the weekend was a toss up between Zenyatta and Midnight Lute, but the whole process was quite enjoyable (now that the discouragement at losing $ has worn off :)).

Ted

Ted: I have to add Goldlikova. That "turn of foot" in the stretch was one of the more dominant ones I've seen, esp. for a 3 yo. against older, even though she wasn't running against a stellar field.

Charlie D 10-26-2008 12:03 PM

Hi guys

Quote:

"A playable race is one where EVERY entrant has at least 3 North American running lines to evaluate".

I know the pools are large and strong, but above are wise words imo. It's maybe better to treat BC as fun like Bill says and get serious at Philly, CT, MNR or whatever track does it for you

tom 10-26-2008 12:16 PM

I think the game is changing. Expect more synth surfaces, and more foreign shippers. Turf courses may be a thing of the past in the near future. What we need to do is find someone in Europe to get half times for us so we can do third fractions on the shippers. :D

The Timeform conversion numbers did outstandingly yesterday. I killed the Marathon and the one after it, that one on place money only. The two that flew by Curlin in the Classic both had better converted numbers than Curlin did. Can't do pace on the shippers, but didn't really need to.


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