Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - So what can we learn from the RDSS Entries Dashboard?

If you are like me, you have struggled over the years to find your strategy that consistently works. Your friends seem to win consistently over time, but you zig when you should have zagged and zagged when you should have zigged. Our expert methodology handicappers demonstrated amazingly different skills. Tom Brohammer and Doc Sartin were amazing data guys who knew the percentages and played them at the right time. They taught us the science and statistics. Then along comes Jim Bradshaw, the ultimate handicapping artist. He would look at a race for 20-30 seconds and pick the winner. I have watched him do it. His explanations were an art form and amazing. So, the only conclusion we can make is that successful handicapping is both science and art and we need to develop and employ those strategies that put us in the best place to win with our own unique art and science balance.

One of the constant criticisms of our Sartin Methodology has been that we are making decisions on a single line selection only. So lets see if we can incorporate some measures that rate more than just one line. We also need to decide how this race will run. We all have watched the Early horse take the lead and never look back even though his line did not rate well. We have also watched as a group of well rated Earlies go out together and blow each other up and a slower Sustained horse wins or even worse one of the Earlies runs a Presser race and wins. Horse behavior can and does determine the way the race runs and who can win.

RDSS gives us all the tools we need to look at our races from a science and an artistic Bradshavian way. Let’s take a look at the tools we have just on the Dashboard. We have learned from the Yellow Manual on that “On Form”ness, Behavior, Class and Pace characteristics all are key in handicapping the races successfully. The Dashboard is a great overview and does tell us a lot.

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An explanation of the terms that we have here:

APV A class rating of multiple races. In the early days this was a key contender selector.

CR A class rating of multiple races. Also a key contender selector in the early days.

CR+ A derivative of CR which adds the impact of recent odds (public opinion/’wisdom of crowds’). Another multi-race rating.

CSR A composite speed rating from the adjusted speed rating of the last 4 races.

PL ProfitLine projects the top five finishers and is based on factors such as BRIS Speed, BRIS Class, BRIS Pace, form, weight, distance, pedigree, trainer, jockey, and recency. It is used by RDSS 2.2 as a component of the “Rx3” computation, described below on the Rx Screen.

BPP Bris Prime Power A multidimensional rating from Twin Spires that includes class, pace and speed ratings. Between the PL and the BPP rating you have a good idea of how the general public will probably invest. Not a bad idea to have an idea where the money will be going.

NP/EL+ positionally influenced pace and final time ratings.

BL/BL The Bottom Line/Betting Line that gives a look at how the horses line comes up in pace characteristics.

VDC Velocity relative to Deceleration. How well did the horse overcome the pace.

RX Factors RX is a composite line score including VDC, CSR, CR+,and EL+. RX1 adds in Morning Line Rank, RX2 uses additional weighting for CR+, and RX3 adds in the Profit Line from Twin Spires.

We also have a whole bunch of Workout data to support our “on form”-ness choices.

Possibly just as important we have a positional Running Styles chart, along with Quirin Speed Points (QSP) to help us decide how the race will run: Early or Other Than Early (E or OTE). In this case we have the following configuration. Lone E5, P1, P5, P3, P3, S3 and S1. In my opinion, this race will be shaded early. The E5 will go out. Who can catch him? (The famous Jim Bradshaw question!)

So, how did I rate these horses?

So we are looking to rate them according to Class, Speed, and Pace ratings. We are using APV, CR, and CR+ for our class rating, CSR for our speed rating, and BPP,BL/BL and RX3 for our Pace ratings. We are looking for a top two or three rating to qualify as good. All ones would be excellent.

1 Lone E with 5 speed points which indicate he will try for the lead. Big question, can he hold it? ok class rankings (APV, CR and CR+), ok speed ratings (CSR), pace ratings suspect (BPP,BL/BL, VDC, RX3) . Contender for now mostly because of the Lone Early and the APV and Class.

2 P1, no class no speed, no pace ratings. Out

3. S1. Good Class, no speed, no pace. Out.

4 P5. Presser who will be close up front with 5 speed points. Good class, ok speed, very good pace numbers. Contender.

5 Scratch

6. P3. Low Class ratings, very good speed, Good pace numbers. Contender

7 P3. OK to Good Class, Good Speed, Good pace ratings. Presser who should be close or mid pack. Contender.

8 S3. Good Class, Best speed, Best Pace numbers. A sustained horse who has some early speed, certainly a consideration for the Board. S1s are always suspect and susceptible to running too far back. Contender.

We select 1, 4, 6, 7,8 as contenders with a race shading Early.
Our job here is to eliminate the noise and find the true contenders so our readouts are clear. I will leave the further analysis to you but here are the race results. Bradshaw was right, he did get caught!!!!!

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So in summary, we know the class horses, the pace horses and the speed horses. We also can tell from the BPP rating how many of the general public handicappers will bet. They should be all over the 4 so if we are looking for a price we may not get it here. However, in the end this race affords us some nice betting opportunities. We end up with a 9.60 winner, a 19.00 exacta right out of the 55% Manual and a $.50 Tri that paid $80.90. Surprisingly, the Twin Spires rating did not drag down this price.

I look for two good ratings of the 3 (Class, Speed, Pace) in order to consider a horse as a true contender. My studies indicate that if in doubt use the CSR as a final decision maker. If the horse has borderline ratings and is not in the top 5 CSR he is out. There is some art in reading this page.

I didn’t get into any issues about on form-ness. I think that CSR and several other ratings being ratings with the last several lines included is a statement of on-formness. I have not studied it, but it anecdotally it seems to be true.

Don’t miss all the information we get from this very straight forward page. Enjoy this great endeavor, have fun, and Happy Handicapping.