Applying Jim's "Projecting Pace" with Current software
 

ok I have been watching this for 2 days and nights now and the results are pretty darn good. Bordering on amazing for quite lenghtly periods of time.

First off Jim shows TWO ways of projecting a "pace horse" for the race to measure other contenders by in his layout. I am using his FIRST way to find the "pace or boss" horse. These are Jim's words:

" There are two ways to project pace.

1. First, decide the horse that is likely to take the lead. In picking the horse that is going to take the lead, find a horse that has truly been in the lead at the first call. In the event none of the horses definitely had the lead, use a time where a horse tried for the lead or was up close.
Next, find a horse that was in the lead at the second call. Use the same procedure explained in finding the first call. Next, find a final time that matches the first two calls, and you have the projected pace of today's race. Never add beaten lengths to any of the fractional calls. Horses that do not match today's pace are will have difficulty winning. "

ok I am ONLY working races where I CAN identify a pace or boss horse or horses. These other paceless races I have no clue so I am leavin them alone for now.

DIRT RACES ONLY:
What I am seeing is that when entering representative pacelines for horses based on projecting pace the way Hat describes the horses that are winning are those that do NOT lose ground to the race pace during the 2nd fraction. This is based on using the matchup screen showing computed beaten lenghts in Spec150. Think this is only gonna get "early" horses? here are 2 races today from Belmont Park.

Race 1 -6f
ok I projected 1c at 22.1 and 2c at 45.3 based on the # 8 and # 9 horses from the pp's ok? So I was able to get lines for 4 horses in the machine all within say 1 tick at the 2c.

here is the initial screen shot of the 4 contenders

ok according to the screen shot the ONLY 2 horses NOT losing ground to the race pace is the leader at 1c and 2c the # 9 and also the # 5. the other 2 guys # 1 and # 8 lose ground in 2c to race pace.

ok so now I hide those 2 and I am left with the 9 and 5. The 9 wins at 2/1 EASY.

no earth shattering result but still pretty darn easy win.

if u watch the replay of the race and look at the initial screen with the 4 horses the darn race ran almost EXACTLY like the screen shows man.

Race 5
 

Here is Race 5 from Belmont today.

For ME this was the easiest race to find the "boss". It's the # 1 horse. I used 22.1 for 1c and 45.3 for 2c. this horse does this on the lead in 4 of his races showing in the pp's. Interesting thing is the "boss" is off his form here man. check his pp's. However he should influence the pace right through the 2c.

here again are the horses that have shown races against this 1c and 2c pace. I have 6 horses which to be honest is WAY more than I have been seeing using this Hat technique for a couple of days. Usually 3 or 4 horses.


here is the initial screen shot of the competitive 6 guys.

ok the ONLY horses NOT losing ground to the race pace at 2c are the 4-7 and 8.

here is the resulting screen shot after hiding the others. The 7 is now ranked 2nd. he wins at 15/1. oh and the 4 ran second for a HUGE exacta.

I have NO freakin clue what I am doing to be honest BUT I have seen this so many times in the last 2 days I thought it was worth throwing out there ok?

all this comes about when I start working a race following Hat's first way to project a race pace. Once again please Jim's words
" 1. First, decide the horse that is likely to take the lead. In picking the horse that is going to take the lead, find a horse that has truly been in the lead at the first call. In the event none of the horses definitely had the lead, use a time where a horse tried for the lead or was up close.
Next, find a horse that was in the lead at the second call. Use the same procedure explained in finding the first call. Next, find a final time that matches the first two calls, and you have the projected pace of today's race. Never add beaten lengths to any of the fractional calls. Horses that do not match today's pace are will have difficulty winning."

here is the resulting screen shot of the 3 guys who do NOT lose ground to the race pace at 2c

safe day

Richie

Great Work !!!!

Great post Rich! Dammit you beat me to the punch, I was pondering trying the same thing here with Spec. Got 2 questions for you sir, how do you arrive at a final time that matches the first 2 splits(fractions)? Also are you using the adjusted lines(F1)or the F2 lines? Great work again keep it up.
Best Doug

Richie,

Have you analyzed a race yet where two or three horses have early speed and someone figures to win from off the pace? I have, and what I found is that the eventual winner actually lost ground to the second call on the match up graph.

The speed collapsed and the horse who lost ground had an easy win and he was a very logical contender.

Hi Doug,

1) I am doing what the Hat suggests and finding a final time from the pp's that matches the first 2 calls. To be honest I am REALLY focusing on the 1c and 2c. Stuff just seems to come together when I have made good line choices based on that. I also have just started with this so I have tons and tons to learn from others like yourself!

2) Strictly ORIGINAL lines Doug. NO adjusted lines man. If I am confused or cant find a pace or boss horse I am out of that race so fast u would think I was running a race. Plenty of other races to choose from.

Rich

Hi Steve
YES I have seen that. Matter of fact the other night at Mnr I think it was it happened. Nothing set in stone. what I posted was something that I am seeing over and over. so I threw it out there to see if others will notice stuff to help

Richie

2 more examples
 

2 more examples from yesterday then I have posted enough races to make my observation clear. I look forward to feedback from others on things they might be seeing. Such as Steve's


here is race 8 from Belmont yesterday

the 3 is the winner at 5/2 ranked 2nd doing nothing cake