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-   -   Parx r9 11-17 (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11958)

Lt1 11-17-2018 07:49 PM

Parx r9 11-17
 
RDSS came thru again today at Parx r9 a 125 clm race3+f n3l. MY contenders were 1-2-3-6-7. I used line 1 for all the horses. On the bl/bl screen the tiers ranks were as follows BLSCORE BL ODDS VDC CSR
#1 23.5 1 1 2
#2 21.5 1.6 1 1
#3 19.3 2.0 3 3
#7 18.0 2.5 4 2
Secondary
#6 9.0 6.0 5 4
The RX Screen tier ranks were VDC CSR PL BPP ML LIVE
#3 3 3 3 3 6-1 3-1
#7 4 2 4 2 4.5 6.1
#1 1 2 5 5 5-1 9-1
#2 1 1 1 4 2.5 2.5
Secondary
#6 5 4 2 1 3.5 2-1

With 2 mins to post I made the following bets
completed 60-1ad-70092 parx r9 $2w/p 1-3 bet $8 ret $33.80 +25.80
completed 194a8-4ff70 parx r9 $2ex box 1-2-3 bet $12 ret $102.20+90.20

The result were as follows
#1 $20.80-$8.40-$5.00
#3 - $4.60 $3.60
#7 - - $4.40
$2ex 1-3 $102.20
.50 tri 1-3-7$173.75
10cent super 1-3-7-5 $1248.01
$2dd 1-1 $36.80
$p3 8-1-1 $345.20

For my contender selection I take the top 5 ranked PL and BPP horses. I also use Tom Brohamers' up close at the stretch call and William Scotts' form factors and Bill Quirins' failure definitions to move horses up or down the tier levels when warranted.

The program does the rest. No more worrying about what adjustment to make like we had to do with the older programs. It's all done for us.
Tim

Bill V. 11-17-2018 09:26 PM

Nice
 
Nice work Tim

Good days score, Good to see things are clicking,,
Keep it up

Love Peace
Bill

Lt1 11-18-2018 05:55 AM

Thanks Bill. You know us old farts got to keep up with the new jacks lol.
Tim

Mitch44 11-18-2018 09:59 AM

Very nice score Tim, thanks for sharing. Keep it rolling and I think your the President of that Park Bank.





















Mitch44

Lt1 11-18-2018 11:51 AM

Thanks Mitch. Just trying to keep up with that monkey of yours lol.
Tim

RichieP 11-30-2018 06:48 PM

Tim,
If I had your good looks and money I'd be smiling all the time too man! Karen and I hope you are doing great :D:D

P.S. - Nice hit!

Lt1 11-30-2018 08:20 PM

Thanks Richie. I don't know about looks but I sure would't mind having that monkey. Things are still the same with me as when we last talked at the Desmond. Hope you and Karen are doing well. You guys are in my prayers
Tim

mick 01-02-2019 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lt1 (Post 118420)
RDSS came thru again today at Parx r9 a 125 clm race3+f n3l. MY contenders were 1-2-3-6-7. I used line 1 for all the horses. On the bl/bl screen the tiers ranks were as follows BLSCORE BL ODDS VDC CSR
#1 23.5 1 1 2
#2 21.5 1.6 1 1
#3 19.3 2.0 3 3
#7 18.0 2.5 4 2
Secondary
#6 9.0 6.0 5 4
The RX Screen tier ranks were VDC CSR PL BPP ML LIVE
#3 3 3 3 3 6-1 3-1
#7 4 2 4 2 4.5 6.1
#1 1 2 5 5 5-1 9-1
#2 1 1 1 4 2.5 2.5
Secondary
#6 5 4 2 1 3.5 2-1

With 2 mins to post I made the following bets
completed 60-1ad-70092 parx r9 $2w/p 1-3 bet $8 ret $33.80 +25.80
completed 194a8-4ff70 parx r9 $2ex box 1-2-3 bet $12 ret $102.20+90.20

The result were as follows
#1 $20.80-$8.40-$5.00
#3 - $4.60 $3.60
#7 - - $4.40
$2ex 1-3 $102.20
.50 tri 1-3-7$173.75
10cent super 1-3-7-5 $1248.01
$2dd 1-1 $36.80
$p3 8-1-1 $345.20

For my contender selection I take the top 5 ranked PL and BPP horses. I also use Tom Brohamers' up close at the stretch call and William Scotts' form factors and Bill Quirins' failure definitions to move horses up or down the tier levels when warranted.

The program does the rest. No more worrying about what adjustment to make like we had to do with the older programs. It's all done for us.
Tim

I've had this post bookmarked for several weeks and have re-read it numerous times. I suspect it flew under the radar and many readers didn't appreciate what Lt. Tim was giving us. But this is how a winning horseplayer does it. I've had the pleasure and the privilege of sitting beside him in his living room, watching him do this and then going to Belmont and watching him cash.

His method is a mix of the old and the new. The new is RDSS and the PL and BPP rankings for contender selection. The old is William L. Scott's "form factors," modified by Tom Brohamer's "up close" definitions, and Dr. Bill Quirin's "form failures". Horses with form defects and form failures get demoted.

While Lt. Tim didn't go into details, it's obvious that #6 (post-time favorite) and #7 had form defects and he demoted them, leaving #1, #2, and #3. He bet the two longer odds horses to win and place, then boxed all three in an exacta. And presto! His $20 bet returned $135.

Lt. Tim has done this so many times, he can rip through a card in no time. For those of us who don't have Scott's form factors memorized, it's more arduous. (Sorry, no free lunch.) The more you do it, however, the easier it gets, just like most things. ;)

AbqVic 01-02-2019 07:55 PM

Yes, very informative thread. Thank you Tim, and Mick for resurrecting it.

I tried searching the site for the guidelines: "form factors," "up close", and "form failures." No luck, are there any references?

If not, what would the book titles be?

Thanks for any help,
Vic

mick 01-03-2019 04:19 AM

Hi, Vic.

William L. Scott's book is "How Will Your Horse Run Today?" and Dr. Bill Quirin's book is "Winning at the Races." The Tom Brohamer material is here on P&C at http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11313

I've written a summary of Scott's book which I'll post for you when I get back to my home computer tomorrow.


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