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-   -   Knifed Again (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12807)

The Pook 02-12-2020 01:01 PM

Knifed Again
 
2 Attachment(s)
Heres a race today at GP in 1 1/2 hours with a big drop favourite. Even if I throw him out I am left with nothing that to me stands out so will pass. But being the MLF and with the back class he would make you nervous if you did have another choice that you liked.

Anybody with any thoughts before post time?

Pook

The Pook 02-12-2020 01:02 PM

Post is 2:35 EST.

The Pook 02-12-2020 01:05 PM

You can see from the workouts that nothing stands out. I didn't post everything so you will need your own download to take a look.

Pook

The Pook 02-12-2020 02:38 PM

3-5 at post. Don't see how one could bet for or against this runner.

The Pook 02-12-2020 02:42 PM

The guy doesn't have it anymore. Not even at $6250. Beat at the wire by a 12-1. Nice dollars if you were confident enough that he would be beat.

Pook

Mitch44 02-12-2020 03:44 PM

I just saw this Pook and I would say the risk reward just isn't there to play this horse. Coming off a 6 mo. layoff but trainer is capable. A big drop but will be bet down and a very low M/L . Risk to bet this horse just not there for the questions he presents. If playing a P-3 or P4 or P6 I would not leave him out, otherwise better races soon to follow with greater rewards.


Mitch44

Mitch44 02-12-2020 03:53 PM

I just looked at the result and he finished 2nd. Bet very low and raised the odds on other horses. I've stressed before for any horse off over 90 days the risk reward must be there to make a bet. That reward is one of my key ingredients to my success with long layoff horses.


Mitch44

oswaldrha 02-12-2020 10:38 PM

Not trying to redboard, but...
 
This horse has one win life time and no wins or places in all of 2019-2020. Shouldn't this be the kind of favorite you go against aggressively? I haven't seen the other horses in the field, but did the rest look terrible? Was this the only horse in the field with any front running tendencies?

Mitch44 02-13-2020 08:04 AM

I have found that at the real low class races they contain many ugly horses, someone has to win. One should bet more into races they have insight into, know what your good at.


Mitch44

Mitch44 02-13-2020 11:57 AM

Not necessarily oswaldrha. His lack of wins or places could be the result of racing too high up in class. Many horses win or run good races off of being dropped in class. Horses are sometimes forced to run under conditions that aren't favorably to them because the racing secretary doesn't card certain races at certain times.

One has to try to determine the reason for the drop. Here the long layoff after showing early speed in Aug. is suspicious.

Horse dropping and returning to a better surface or distance make sense where this one doesn't.

Pook did realize this was a suspicious dropdown and was leery which is why he posed the question. Trust your instincts and react accordingly. For me the low odds cinched it, no play as I want to be rewarded for risk or to ask a horse to do something it never did before such as a FTS.

Mitch44


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