2018 Santa Anita Derby
 

Well if Justify "justifies" his expectations- This one will be the Kentucky Derby favorite and the "Apollo Curse" will be tested.

The top contenders are the top two choices: no wagering value so this will be an armchair spectator race. Justify and Bolt De Oro....


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Santa Anita Derby charts
 

Final time purists will question the timing of this year's race...But it seem to be a deep track...Midnight Bisou- one of the favorites for the Kentucky Oaks completed her Santa Anita Oaks victory in 1:44 and change..

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The last 3 Furlongs of Justify was 37:0 flat......

Bolt d'Oro couldn't afford to let Justify get away in this race as no other could keep him honest in this weak field.


Bolt has been training to come from off the pace to get to the Derby and distances in TC. He'll be more effective going forward and there will be more speed in the Derby as always to keep Justify in check.


Justify is still a good horse and remains undefeated, both still have to get there.
For SA the time of the fractions was not all that fast but last 1/8 was good. Justify I think showed a new dimension on the lead by not being speed crazy and slowed it down to rate. Speed and rating are dangerous in the derby. How will he act in a big field without the lead and dirt hitting him?


Mitch44

He will "WIN" the Kentucky Derby! He is the best 3 year old in the country trained by one of the best Trainers and ridden by one of the top 5 Jockey's riding in the US! When his Beyer is published from the SA Derby, don't be surprised if it is over 105.

The "Derby Euphoria"
 

The Kentucky Derby is one of many horse racing "betting" opportunities. It is actually one of the most challenging due to the sheer number of entries in the "Race" and the distance of a mile and a quarter where most have never attempted while carrying 126 lbs in front of 175,000 jubilant fans "drenched" in mint juleps......

Justify and Mike Smith were expected in the Santa Anita Derby to ration his early speed and to work on his closing fraction which they did accomplished over a deep track. (Justify's last 3 furlongs was 37.0 seconds ) The Santa Anita main dirt track has been playing slow. It seems that the maintenance crew added quite a bit of sand during the raining season.

Oh by the way Justify earned a 107 Beyer in the SA Derby. The highest of all the Derby preps!

Dap your correct on the 107. His Beyer was posted at 10:34 at DRF. A good 1 hour & 25 minutes before your post. Smiling.


Personally I don't put any faith in the Beyer numbers. Trainers and jocks don't win races, horses do. BTW Mendelsjon got a 106.


The Derby will have a whole different match up. Also there are some other preps to come and who knows what will come out of them.


He is a good horse but he'll have to get there first. Baffert has been know to ruin many horses. I'll keep an open mind for now.


Wishing you luck,
Mitch44

Mitch44 you are 100% correct....the Derby is a different matchup and with 20 horses in the field it's hard to tell what will happen at this point. Actually Audible looked the most impressive to me winning the Fla Derby....if Jusify draws PP 20 he won't win....and if the same thing happens as last year 6 or 7 horses running into each other at the start...anything could happen

atkinsrr:


Your absolutely correct reference the post position and getting a clean break. Also he or others may not like the track. Without a clean break he may not like the dirt kickback for another reason.There are many reasons why a horse doesn't win even when they are the best horse.


At least a half a dozen reasons and then throw in a bet down horse with low odds and many unanswered questions, well not a good scenario.


The Derby is a long way off and even longer for the horses trying to get there. Horses get worn out just getting there and run poorly every year because of it. Your correct about keeping an open mind and forget the media hype.


Mitch44

I posted here on April 8th that Justify is the best 3 year old running in this country and stated that he would win the Kentucky Derby! I did put my money where my mouth is.