Race 12- BC Classic Race 2014
 

$5 Million Race at a mile and a quarter on real dirt at Santa Anita race track.

Okay, trying to make amends for last year's Classic race when the three year old colt Will Take Charge got nosed out by Mucho Macho Man, who got a dream trip by Gary Stevens. Fantastic ride! old man:cool:

At first glance over the past performances, I noticed that there are a lot of closers in this year's edition and that many had faced sub-par early pace fractions for previous prep races leading to the Breeder's Cup Classic. In this full field of fourteen contenders, we do have Moreno who is a true front runner but this one was aimed for the Whitney Stakes in the first week of August. Whether this one has enough gas in the tank after a long campaign this year remains to be seen in this match-up.

In my two cents opinion, I narrowed this year's Classic Match-up to the leading three year-old colts: Shared Belief the Pacific Classic winner and morning line favorite; California Chrome- this year's Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner and the Pennsylvania Derby winner Bayern.

Shared Belief is coming up to this race beautifully, one sprint race ,and three route races with one at Del Mar's synthetic dirt and one important prep race over the Santa Anita dirt course in its last race. In California Chrome, I believe that Art Sherman wished he had gotten one more route prep race into California Chrome.

Bayern's last race early pace fractions stands out for my own analysis as Bayern went 47.8 and 110.8 for the early pace fractions. Bayern burned the second fraction in 23.0 seconds flat!!!! This is a huge (and hidden move! ) turn of foot especially when one preps for a longer race like a mile and a quarter.

So the key factor in this matchup is whether Bayern can get a mile and a quarter with his early speed to get position with Moreno drawn inside on his flank and have enough in the tank to withstand the late moves by Shared Belief and California Chrome. Should be a great tactical race.

Good skills

Thanks for the analysis! I think just watching the contest for the first 6 furlongs between Bayern and Moreno will be worth the price of admission! Gives me chills even now, trying to visualize it!

Ted

BC Classic
 

I agree my P and C friends... with one question?

What the hell is Cigar Street doing in this race....Bill Mott is not a silly man, and he knows something. I have 3 - Bayern / California Chrome, and I think Cigar Street will be hit the board.

May all of your bets cash and Happy Punting!!

Good stuff
 

Got 7/13/12 to be near the top
Yes 12 :/ but gotta stick to it
11 and 15 bringing up the 4/5 spots

Been a heck of a day of racing!

Congratulations to Mr Pagine and Mr Nickel!

The race would have been different if Moreno had not been squeezed at the start and been able to get his position and soften up Bayern: only a neck between the top 3 finishers ...!

Ted

Highway robbery Bayern should have been DQ'D took Shared Belief
right out of the race

glad we wasn't DQ'd ....Had Bayern and Tonalist both bet to win....but now the sad news..late pick 4 9th I have the $14.40 10th I have the $40.20..someone told me that an Illinois bred horse couldn't win the sprint. (ha) 11th $60.00 horse beats me out of the pic 4
12th I had Bayern $14.20....the .50 cent pic 4 paid over $18,000...I will be sick over that one for a while....Doc Sartin used to tell us when foreign horses are in there pass the race or use them all...well I only used 3 of them....learned a lesson today

Well...
 

That 9 killed my exotic
2 was never in my sites
Bayerns move definitely changed the dynamics of the race.
Even for the day.

Had a live late pick 4 ticket with 2 Cigar Street, he faded badly but it was exciting to have a chance at 40 grand with a 12/1 short. Talk about making your year!
Well that’s racing!!

High
 

Doc must be smiling on me and us here at P-C

Bayern had the highest adjusted speed rating last 3 comparable and last line
104 ( val 4)
AND is the winner of the major prep race . Pennsylvania derby.

BC Wrap up...
 

It was another incredible day of racing yesterday with horses paying anywhere from 60-1, 13-1. and others.

As I have always thought about Pace and Cap, it seems to do better with better horses. The problem for me yesterday was the Euros, as I had to include them off of no statistics, as I have watched them do very well in previous years.

Hi-lites, and winners for me were, Dayatthespa, Texas Red, Main Sequence and Bayern. I am a little upset with myself for not betting more on the winners, and trying to hit too many exactors and triactors.

Still stunned that Bayern went off at 7-1, and as my friend has coined "The Splitzacta" cost me some $$ with CC coming in 3rd.

May all of your bets cash, and Happy Punting!!

In this year’s Breeders Cup Classic, I posted that it might be a great tactical race but I was unawared of the “Battlestar Galactica” consequences that unfolded. A “Cylon attack” was unleashed on Shared Belief and Moreno after the opening of the starting gate. Jockeys Martin Garcia on Bayern and Jamie Spencer on Toast of New York had to be liked fierce pilots on “Viper fighter planes” to survive the early chaos and the wrath of the stewards” inquiry and their final decisions to let the order of finish to remain unchanged .
A quick synopsis:

In this Breeders Cup Classic, it was a Shared Belief that Mike Smith didn’t have a Prayer for Relief as his colt couldn’t get a Footbridge of footing after the start as they got Bayern and was impeded by Toast of New York before the first turn and they had a Tonalist of troubles throughout the race.
It was Imperative that a pace duel develop for the closers in the race but Holy Cow! Batman! Poww! Zivo!! Moreno was NO MORE:eek: in the early pace duel. Martin Garcia made off as the “Lone Speed”:cool: in the race like stealing from a Candy Boy.
At the end of the day, it was a VE Day for Bob Baffert, Martin Garcia and owner K. Shah as they ended up on Cigar Street in the winner’s circle near the Majestic Harbor under the California Chrome
.;)

LS, know that's the best analysis of a race I ever had the pleasure to read!

Good Stuff!!

Mike

It may not be a popular opinion but Bayern should have been disqualified. It was reckless handling. Can you imagine an F1 race where one driver causes his vehicle to crash into another car??? Costing another team millions of dollars not to mention personal safety.

Inexcusable.

A jock has very little control over what a horse does leaving the gate, most of the time they are holding on for dear life. It is quite common for a horse to bolt left or right when leaving the gate, it’s a daily occurrence. By the time the jock reacts to the horse’s bad exit, it’s too late to correct the problem, that’s racing.

You are comparing a horse with a vehicle with pinpoint steering?

You are comparing a horse with a vehicle with pinpoint steering?

Couldn't get the forum to quote for some reason.

Yes, I am.

I've heard the statement many times that the jockey is holding on for dear life and has no control over what the horse does. I do not subscribe to that theory. If we sent horses out without any rider I can see your point however we don't. This was a blatant violation of a code of conduct. I guess it would be easy for the jockey to say, "Hey man, I'm just trying to stay on the horse... what it does once it leaves the gate is up to the horse as I have no control". Jockey's frequently pull a horse up that is heading into troubles waters to prevent clipped heels etc... If the horse is veering that severely off course then it should have been his duty to pull the horse back - this didn't happen which caused the collision of two other horses and changed the outcome of the entire race. Truly a bad showing for our sport especially on prime time TV.

No, it was pretty crappy & a bit of poor sportsmanship.

Was also the fastest mile time in the Marathon analysis. Bayern, Shared Belief and Cal Chrome were top 3 - 134.0 - 134.2 and 134.6

I bet Bayern and feel he should have been taken down. That was not the everyday bump at the start of race it was a mugging and changed the entire race. By crushing SB who has tactical speed and causing Moreno the horse with inside speed not to get out cleanly he was able to get to rail and the lead in a few hundred feet rather then have to fight for it most likely for the 1st 1/4 mile. Even with that advantage he was life and death to win.

I had no horse in this race so i have no bias. I thought what Bayern did was nothing out of the ordinary, by the second jump i thought the horse was squirrely and running to the left. Whether Garcia was pulling to the left only he knows for certain, but i have seen a lot worse. Last season i saw a horse turn right coming out of the gate and ran straight at the rail, before running straight through it. How much control did the jock have in that situation? I would say absolutely none, you can go on and on.

The one bit of reckless riding i did notice was from Spencer on Toast of New York, he came across after the break and just about levelled two horses in the process, that was all jockey.

What is wrong within the race is the standards of horse racing. Was it a violation or not. According to the stewards, the CHRB code was not broken, therefore no violation as the incident should not have affected the outcome.

Had it been a riding violation then it should have been penalized. If, in football, a quarterback makes a pass play to his LEFT that ends up a touchdown but a player on the RIGHT side of the field is caught holding, the touchdown is taken away and the team is penalized. It doesn't matter that the penalty had NO OUTCOME to the pass play itself. If a violator of the rules gets caught, there will be a penalty applied.

In horse racing, the violations of rules are not always penalized but decided upon by a supposedly unbiased group that addresses the issue on a case by case basis.

In the race in question, it seems there needs to be a clearer rule set into place regarding the handling of horses during the first unviolateable (new word) distance from the starting gate. Plus the ruling should be in place at ALL tracks and render the stewards job easier.

As is, I am surprised it does not happen more often other than the sanity of the jockeys not to put themselves, their fellow riders and their horses in greater risk than they already are.

The stewards did indeed rule that Bayern did cause interference at the start of the race but in their opinion did not violate the 2nd part of the rule. That maybe correct since it is a subjective call but common sense should dictate that you don't allow a horse to commit a major violation and still win the biggest race in the country. It is a major black eye to the sport. This is why racing can't get new fans. How the heck can you get them to invest their money when they see you can break part of a rule and still be the winner.

Stewards and Racing
 

I won money on Bayern, and would of had no problem taking him down at all. My main issue was that we had no press release from the stewards or announcement on why they did what they did?

These folks closed up shop and headed for their cars and got the hell away as fast as they could.

Have some balls, make a ruling, and let everyone know why you made the ruling....................Don't take 24 hours to come up with a statement.

CLAIM of Foul
 

No Jockey or Trainer claim?????

The social and political hierarchy in the Southern California racing industry is quite unique. I have the impression that it is a very "tight-knit" family and community. The Santa Anita stewards enjoy an excellent reputation. I am not insinuating that Mr. Baffert had anything at all to do with the decision, but perhaps had the offending mount belonged to another "New York" or "Woodbine" trainer, the results might have been different. I might add that Mike Smith would be very unlikely to object...remember he and Gary Stevens were both outrageously bumped by Luis Saez aboard "Will Take Charge" earlier this year in the Oaklawn Handicap. You have to keep quiet and take your medicine. It worked for Stevens...He ended up taking the mount from Saez thereafter. You will certainly see Smith have "more" opportunities aboard Baffert stake mounts in the future. There is a code of silence.

RACING needs to follow the pattern of the national football league
They need to adjust the rules toward safety and what the people want.
It is a tough call. Yes racing wants more fans. You are correct. But
many people just bet anything Bafffort So they had to go with their decisions
It's a no win for the stewards either way

If I had to make the call I would have taken the winner down
I suppose people who really want to get into horse racing would respect the hard decision to take away a winners purse and their bet if the horse made a violation .

But money talks

Here is an interesting pic from the break.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...e-sequence-692

I have watched the break over and over again on video, and i have made some observations.

- Bayern broke immediately to the left with his first jump.
- Bayern' head was straight at the break, he wasn't being pulled to the left before the gate opened.
- Bayern had a one length lead with the first jump.
- Garcia yanked on the rein three times with his right arm to correct the problem.
- Garcia, almost standing while correcting the problem had his body twisted to the right for leverage while pulling on the right rein.
- The horses head does not seem to react to Garcia' pull on the rein, how hard was he actually trying to correct the problem?
- Why did Garcia have such a loose hold on the reins at the break? His hands seem to be at the end of the reins, while all the other riders had a hold at the back of the neck.
- It almost seems that Garcia was not prepared for the start.
- it seems the horse saw the rail and was taking an immediate path to the rail.

The most objective response I heard on the incident was by former jockey Richie Miglore doing color on ESPN. As they were playing the slow motion reply he pointed out that on the first step it was not the jocks fault but then he said watch now he just keeps coming over almost looking like he was doing it on purpose. It is definitely a riding foul and it does effect on the start of the race for both Shared Belief and the other speed horse Moreno. He also stated that although the 9 did also come over he didn't effect the start.

BC Classic
 

I don't feel there is anyway to justify the stewards decision. If that race had been a lower profile race the horse would have come down. I was somewhat surprised when he didn't given that he basically took out the favorite and really all the horses to his inside.
The racing industry suffers tremendously from loss of fan and better support and is a shadow of what I remember as a child in the 50s. Besides the declining annual foal crop, half of what it was in the 80s, this industry suffers from lack of credibility. This is just another example of the ills the industry suffers. Even a novice could see that the start gave Bayern an unfair advantage. How can anyone see this and not think the game is rigged toward the big barns and high flying wealthy owners.
An opportunity was presented and again track officials chose to move in the wrong direction. I is a shame!

Hoof - Thanks
 

Hoof - nice post....and wow - The hands of Garcia...INSANE....he was not ready at all for the break.

Thanks for the Bloodhorse link.....

Happy Punting!!

Reviewing the Matchup and afterthought
 

The 2014 Breeder's Cup Classic was two years ago, but I enjoy reviewing past races to evaluate. I had written some private messages to Bill Lyster and to Ted Craven about Jim Bradshaw's "Marathon Match-Up" by using the mile times of races to apply the match - up. I commented about the great and extensive work that Bill Lyster was posting about Bradshaw's marathon method. But somehow I overlooked one horse in this 2014 BC Classic Match up. Toast of New York.

Originally, I concluded with Shared Belief, California Chrome and Bayern as my final contenders. Bayern's last paceline stood out as he "blitzed"second turn in 23.0 flat followed with another 23.6 fraction from the 6F marker to the mile marker. (American Pharoah ran almost the same fractions in the 2015 Travers Stakes while losing to Keen Ice in the race. Hmmm, both horses are trained by Bob Baffert)

In re-evaluating the race, I zoomed in on the Pacific Classic race won by Shared Belief. Toast of New York finished second in the race but let's focus on the mile part of the race as dictated by Jim Bradshaw.

Bradshaw suggested that it's best to evaluate marathon races like the Classic by using the mile time of the races. Many are aware that mile and 1/4 races are not great pacelines to evaluate the match up in many Sartin programs. So let's focus on the mile part of the race and not on the whole race.

The contenders: the highlighted pacelines were my original pacelines with the exception of overlooking Toast of New York.

Attachment 39907
Attachment 39908
Attachment 39909
Attachment 39910

Let's review the 2014 Pacific Classic but let's focus only on the mile time of the race as suggested by Jim Bradshaw.
Attachment 39911

I used Thoromation to evaluate the race; and using the highlighted pacelines:

Bayern- last paceline
California Chrome- 3rd paceline using only the mile fractions of the Preakness
Shared Belief- 2nd pacelne using only the mile fractions of the Pacific Classic
Toast of New York-last paceline using only the mile fractions of the Pacific Classic


Attachment 39912

The first screen came up SP--no surprise with Bayern's great Sustained paceline
Attachment 39913

the exdc screen
Attachment 39914

and the Thoromation screen
Attachment 39915

Jim Bradshaw knew what he was talking about!!

P.S. My respects for the passing of Shared Belief

Inquiry objection after the start of the race.
 

We are all aware of the incidents that happened after the starting gate opened and the objections of the stewards' decisions. But my posts, two years later, are about the importance of Jim Bradshaw's Marathon Matchup method by using the mile fractions for the match up analyses.

Attachment 39916

mile fractions within mile and 1/4 distance races
 

Here is the pp of American Pharoah
Attachment 39929

Now we compare the mile fractions of American Pharoah from the 2015 Travers Stakes with Bayern's race in the 2014 Pennsylvania Derby. The pace fractions and turn time are eerily "Identical.":eek:

Attachment 39930
Attachment 39931

APharoah: 48.1 for 4 furlongs followed by a 23.2 turn time; followed by a 23.6 fraction to the mile marker

Bayern: 47.4 for 4 furlongs followed by a 23.0 turn time; followed by a 23.6 fraction to the mile marker


Anyways, we move on...thanks for reading...