Negative dropper Parx race 8
 

What is the story here?

Horse # 7 in race 8, The last leg of the pick 4
American Roma

He just won for 12,000 18 days ago.
In the race before that against CL12 restricted. He was competitive in to the stretch
He still beat 1/2 the field
In the 3rd back, He placed against starter optional 16,0000
Why the drop to 8000?


Attachment 47220

Funny Old Race
 

Horse number 1 is the same, but with a lower total energy for it's win.

American Roma is a hard one to call. Perhaps it's a negative class drop, perhaps they are taking a chance on it being claimed even if in good shape and plan to take down the prize money to offset losing it.

Not the easiest call.

Play the pace line at the same level or higher
 

Negative class droppers are part of the game. If one is in the claiming game, one has to take chances to win a purse or "strike while the horse is still in form" while taking risks that the horse will get claimed.

As a handicapper, playing a negative class dropper has no value. Horses showing good early speed in higher class races then dropping in levels are quite different. Just throwing some wood in the fire in the Two Cents Campfire.

Race 3 I'm going with 1 and 3 against the earlies.

Whenever I open my mouth...……...

Very solid choice in your pick 4.
The odds on this horse will be too prohibitive for most other bets.
Good luck.:D

I bet the 1 and the 5 for the same reason but the 5 got bet down to 4/5

Attachment 47222

As you've pointed out Bill, the clue was in the graph and I'll have to admit to not having looked at that screen.

It may have been 4/5, but it was never in doubt once into the stretch.

Well done! sorry.

And hope you're feeling better too.

Typical Juan Carlos move in Parx 8th. Looks like you won't get a worthwhile win bet on it. Hard to leave out of gimmick bets. Looks like an all or nothing situation with this one
Tim