Predictive Factors for Contenders
 

I'm building a new database using Template 4 and hope it will help me identify contenders. My dirt sprint and route tabs contain enough races for a meaningful sample and I thought I would post a summary. My cut off was 80% or more winners in the top four. (BTW I have no maiden races in my database and I'm using the default pacelines with only a few exceptions.) This reinforces the predictive power of Rx1, Rx2 and Rx3 that others have already noted.

Good
 

stuff Mick. My question for you is once you have it whittled down to your top 4 what is your process for getting it down to your top 2?

bob

Great work Mick.


I see you took my advice to record factors in RDSS to get the winner in the top 4 85% of the time. Not only that once you know this it greatly reduces the amount of time to get the proper contenders which can be spent on analysis.


Accepting 64% or less only reduces the power to win. This is a tough game and every edge possible must be taken to succeed.
Again Mick terrific work.


Mitch44

Bob, I look for bets that don't require me to whittle it down to a top 2, like rolling doubles and pick 3s. I'll bet more on the more likely combinations but spread and cover with smaller amounts on the less likely combinations.

I spend a lot of time on the TPR and Primary screens trying to find separation between horses. Regarding paceline selection, I use the default, best of last three comparable, except with cheap claimers. For them, I'll change the paceline to the last race and then try to find some reason to go back to a previous line. Recency is crucial for those plodders. (Bill Lyster did us all a favor when he compiled FTL's guidelines.)

I tried matching but then a Sartin veteran who had worked with Jim Bradshaw told me how "The Hat" had done it and I realized that I just wasn't smart enough. That man didn't make a mark on his Daily Racing Form. He kept it all in his head! How is that possible?

Anyway, that's sort of how I do it. I'm sure I haven't told you anything you didn't know already and probably haven't done many times.

Very interesting stats Mick. Thanks for your hard work and for posting this info.
Tim

Bob:
I would say to separate by use of advance concepts such as : NTL, suspicious dropdowns, too high % Med, too low % Med, one run horses, false early horses etc.


Mitch44

Predictive Factors for Contenders - Updated
 

After a busy weekend of racing and beta-testing, I’ve added at least another hundred races to my “MasterTemplate4” database. Below are the updated statistics, which further support the predictive power of the Rx Factors.

I’ve added two columns: PL# and PP#. Those are the Profit Line ranking from Twinspires and the Prime Power ranking from BRIS. The Profit Line rankings are on the Rx screen. The Prime Power rankings were manually extracted from BRIS PPs and added to the database by hand. (Yes, it’s a pain.)

Regarding turf sprints and routes, I don’t have enough races yet to comfortably publish those stats. With turf sprints, the Rx factors look strong but it is very small sample. With turf routes, the best statistical factors are the positions at the stretch call and finish of the selected paceline. But again, it’s a small sample.

contenders
 

I have an Aqueduct only database of approx 100 races (much too small for definitive answers), but my figures are tending to reflect yours. RX2 is slightly better than RX3.

Thanks for the update Mick. Charlie thanks to you also for your Aqu update.
Tim

Hard work is rewarded. Maintain Mick & Charlie as there is a yellow brick road.
Nice work.
Mitch44