Today ...
 

I'm proceeding with a lot of caution today, using at most half my normal wager unit - enjoying watching races if there's too much unclarity in any of them (which there is in a lot of them!)

The best opinion I have in any race so far, besides Wise Dan in the Mile, is in the Downhill Turf Sprint: #3 Chips All In and #12 Mizdirection

Re 'early bias' on dirt - I have to believe that the matchup of Earlies/Fighters and Pressers/Late horses in any race has at least as much impact on the outcome as any sudden weather or track maintenance issues.

Ted

One race does not confirm anything, but the first dirt race today (#2) using Bill L's described E/ep analysis (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...newpost&t=9480) rates the winner well (on top), as does the traditional Best of Last 3 comparable (only 4 real contenders, though ...)

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I'll check things as they go, out of curiosity ...

Ted

Race 3

#1 shows some possibility as an overlay. I required (as for all the downhill Turf course sprints) that the contenders have shown some affinity for this particular, peculiar, surface, and in a decent time. If so, I'm happy to seek a better line (i.e. in case their 6.5T line was against a slow pace).

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Hey Ted. Good luck out there!

In the 4th. The 1 will be my key horse. Will mostly bet the 1,10 to win

Ted...Good job at Santa Anita today! Too bad I didn't see your posts earlier, otherwise I would have thrown a few bucks on your selections. Keep it up!

Wow, what a finish to the 4th!

dirty moose .....Sorry for the disqualification in the 4th race. You did a good job getting the #10 to win. Keep it up!

Sorry Matt

Hope you feel alright . Nice work picking the 10
Use that to your advantage as you move on


Bill

Thanks 's fellas! That one hurt tho.
If you ask me =)... Total crock o' sheet....

Paul,

I didn't win anything yet! Small WP bet on the #1 in the 3rd. I did not bet the 4th race - a good thing, since I had the 7-1-10.

cheers,

Ted

I bet that hurt. At least you handicapped the race well.

For the record, here are the picks for the BC races today I posted in the PaceAdvantage BC Contest.

I reserve the right to be more selective/creative - or change my mind completely :eek: (This was a Win only contest totally $10 per race).

SA4
--> $4 Win 7-10
--> $2 Win 1

SA5
--> $4 Win 2
--> $3 Win 1-3

SA6
--> $4 Win 9-11
--> $2 Win 3

SA7
--> $4 Win 3-12
--> $2 Win 14

SA8
--> $5 Win 13-14

SA9
--> $4 Win 12
--> $3 Win 7-8

SA10
--> $5 Win 1-6

SA11
--> $10 Win 8

SA12
--> $4 Win 7
--> $3 Win 2-10

.

In the 5th going with the 1,7.
1,6,7/1,3,4,6,7,10

I did not bet the 5th race (too low odds on my main horses, given the serious uncertainties of these Euros). However, here's what I had:

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Race 6 F&M Sprint
 

A LOT of very fine fillies and mares here - very tough to separate. Perhaps the odds will help me make a choice, but keeping my money in my pocket looks like a good one so far ...

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I got some Win odds on 11 and 9

9 & 12 for me

well done Ted, hoping the 9 would get there for both of us!

Nice little Exacta too. I was rooting for Judy as well, but could not disrespect Groupie Doll.

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Yes a very nice exacta there.

I was perhaps a little generous there with the 12.....

Attachment 36102Finally a winner and the EX! Nice job all. I know it's a little after the race.

Race 7 Turf Sprint
 

Again, must have success on this downhill Turf course. If so, I'll use a better line. If not, they're not a Win Contender.

Chips All In should give Mizdirection a good run!

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Congratulations Matt!

Nice one Matt, makes up for the dq!

I got no probs with anyone saying anything after the event. If you hit it, you hit it.

Race 7 is a definite pass for me. Too many unknowns for my liking.

Twinspires Profit Line says the 7 should be 3/1....

Before anyone posts anything here, I'm going to post what I'm doing which is laying the 12 to lose on betfair.

Probably not in the spirit of the Methodology, but....

What I meant was I don't want others to lose etc, but that is the position I've taken with the race.

Oh dear. Breaking even on the night now.......

Just a wonderful horse - Mizdirection. And a thrilling draw for 2nd/3rd.

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Race 8 - Juvenile
 

With so many young horses - improving (or not) in unknown ways - you have to draw the line somewhere ... For better or worse, I chose to emphasize those horses who had gone on to do something (e.g. good Graded finishes) since their Maiden wins.

Hope the odds stay good on Havana and Strong Mandate.

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11, 13 & 14 for me. All win bets.

what I always say
 

Good to see Mizdirection win


As far as the last race

It's always the 4 horse :rolleyes:

Good skill guys

Indeed!

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Race 9 - The Turf
 

Treading very lightly due to Euro #7 The Fugue.

Small exacta on 7-8-10-12. And it's hard to see how anyone might beat #8 Point of Entry, but ...

I have a small WP bet on #8

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Euros continue their strong performance this year! The old adage of simply flat-betting ALL the Euro horses is starting to look sensible (in hindsight).

DaveEdwards - what do you feed these horses, Guinness :eek: ?

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Race 10 - The Sprint
 

I'm presuming ALL the Earlies are compromised, and a Presser from 4th or so will come on.

So that's the #1 and #6

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Race 10.... Win bets will be 1,3. Ex will be 1,3,7/1,3,5,7,9

Race 11 - The Mile
 

Wise Dan will have to give his best performance today. Olympic Glory looks to have done everything right.

Rooting for Dan, keeping my money safe in pocket.

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