Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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Originally Posted by lone speed (Post 98641)

$5 Million Race at a mile and a quarter on real dirt at Santa Anita race track.

Okay, trying to make amends for last year's Classic race when the three year old colt Will Take Charge got nosed out by Mucho Macho Man, who got a dream trip by Gary Stevens. Fantastic ride! old man:cool:

At first glance over the past performances, I noticed that there are a lot of closers in this year's edition and that many had faced sub-par early pace fractions for previous prep races leading to the Breeder's Cup Classic. In this full field of fourteen contenders, we do have Moreno who is a true front runner but this one was aimed for the Whitney Stakes in the first week of August. Whether this one has enough gas in the tank after a long campaign this year remains to be seen in this match-up.

In my two cents opinion, I narrowed this year's Classic Match-up to the leading three year-old colts: Shared Belief the Pacific Classic winner and morning line favorite; California Chrome- this year's Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner and the Pennsylvania Derby winner Bayern.

Shared Belief is coming up to this race beautifully, one sprint race ,and three route races with one at Del Mar's synthetic dirt and one important prep race over the Santa Anita dirt course in its last race. In California Chrome, I believe that Art Sherman wished he had gotten one more route prep race into California Chrome.

Bayern's last race early pace fractions stands out for my own analysis as Bayern went 47.8 and 110.8 for the early pace fractions. Bayern burned the second fraction in 23.0 seconds flat!!!! This is a huge (and hidden move! ) turn of foot especially when one preps for a longer race like a mile and a quarter.

So the key factor in this matchup is whether Bayern can get a mile and a quarter with his early speed to get position with Moreno drawn inside on his flank and have enough in the tank to withstand the late moves by Shared Belief and California Chrome. Should be a great tactical race.

Good skills

The 2014 Breeder's Cup Classic was two years ago, but I enjoy reviewing past races to evaluate. I had written some private messages to Bill Lyster and to Ted Craven about Jim Bradshaw's "Marathon Match-Up" by using the mile times of races to apply the match - up. I commented about the great and extensive work that Bill Lyster was posting about Bradshaw's marathon method. But somehow I overlooked one horse in this 2014 BC Classic Match up. Toast of New York.

Originally, I concluded with Shared Belief, California Chrome and Bayern as my final contenders. Bayern's last paceline stood out as he "blitzed"second turn in 23.0 flat followed with another 23.6 fraction from the 6F marker to the mile marker. (American Pharoah ran almost the same fractions in the 2015 Travers Stakes while losing to Keen Ice in the race. Hmmm, both horses are trained by Bob Baffert)

In re-evaluating the race, I zoomed in on the Pacific Classic race won by Shared Belief. Toast of New York finished second in the race but let's focus on the mile part of the race as dictated by Jim Bradshaw.

Bradshaw suggested that it's best to evaluate marathon races like the Classic by using the mile time of the races. Many are aware that mile and 1/4 races are not great pacelines to evaluate the match up in many Sartin programs. So let's focus on the mile part of the race and not on the whole race.

The contenders: the highlighted pacelines were my original pacelines with the exception of overlooking Toast of New York.

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Let's review the 2014 Pacific Classic but let's focus only on the mile time of the race as suggested by Jim Bradshaw.
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