Using lines from Synthetic to Dirt or Dirt to Synthetic
 

One issue i find i have, often when Hollywood Park first opens after the Santa Anita meet, and also the Arlington meet after hawthorne, is that the times from a dirt and synthetic track are more often than not, Vastly different.
My question is, is it okay to rank horses based on their Synthetic race even if i am using dirt lines for some of the other horses. An advantage usually goes to the dirt lines for the Early parts and the dirt lines usually always "look" better.
Synthetic and Dirt are two completley different surfaces. Can i get your opinion on pace lines going from dirt to Synthetic or Synthetic to dirt

Latekick forget Hollywood their done soon. As for Arlington who cares IMO anything in Illinois is minor league no matter how they dress it up or how much whipped cream they add to it. This is just a personal opinion but it wouldn't matter if Secretariat ran against 10 claimers in Illinois something else would win and pay close to chalk, if you get my drift.

JMHO.....I will use a synth line in a dirt race with no problem. A lot of horses explode when they get on the dirt.

I will NEVER use a dirt line for a synth or a turf race, other than a dirt race at Hollywood Park - it is more like dirt than synth.

I will use a turf line for a synth race, but not a dirt race.

When the BC cup was at SA on synth, you could automatically throw out every single dirt horse - including Curlin.

Is this Tom saying this or Bill Finley because me thinks this is right out of Betting Synthetics. IMO both surfaces, lines can be use when racing on one or the other once you have a good handle of lag time, turf is different. There is Crab and then Pollock dressed up and flavor added to imitate.

It depends on at least a couple of things, IMO.

1. Are you using software which (at least attempts to) adjust times run on poly to today's dirt surface (i.e. by an inter-track variant). If so, experiment to see if you can trust that adjustment. For example, in RDSS, after we get done adjusting and projecting and equalizing surfaces and distances, you're not handicapping a race at (for example) Hollywood Park (or Woodbine) anymore - you're working it at some hypothetical 'normalized' location (sometimes affectionately called 'Sartin Downs'). It's a separate issue whether one 'believes' in adjustments, or likes TrackMaster's.

2. Has the horse proven (or not disproven) that it has an affinity for poly (or for dirt, if it has so far run only on poly). If not, 'caveat emptor' - same as for Turf. Wait until you see if the horse tells you something first.

Some believe (i.e. from their analysis and betting experience) that, for example, a poly line works as well as a Turf line for rating a horse at Woodbine on either surface. Shipping in there, from dirt surfaces, less so. In my personal experience at Woodbine, I let RDSS' ITV adjustments do their work, then let Matchup and other analysis find the contenders. I'm usually not seeking to bet 1 horse in the race anyway, so a little uncertainty is tolerable.

FWIW :)

Ted